I'm assuming a deal with PHX gets done. Either way, we need a 2..another ballhandler/playmaker at guard...in addition to Reed. And, a shotblocker/rebounder...These guys can be had cheap though, I wouldn't spend a high draft choice on it.
If we don't get Durant cheap we will stay put is my guess. Really, anything could happen though, never thought we would trade for Westbrook and we did.
Rockets trade Pick #10 for a future 1st. Reed at backup PG. Run it back. I don't see a trade for an above average player.
Rockets make a run at Giannis, but fall short and end up trading for Durant. The trade involves this year’s #10, another year’s first and Jabari Smith, for starters.
Unless Giannis is cheap I do not see the Rockets giving up what it would take to get him. I also doubt a KD deal gets done. I think there is a chance the 10th pick, Jalen, plus any salary filler get sent out for a more consistent 2 guard which is our main issue.. Reed will solve our Fred playing 40+ minutes per game issue by the end of next season. Our two young studs, Alpi & Amen, will both have great offseasons. Both will come back better shooters.
Giannis stays in Milwaukee. Durant to the Spurs. Rockets resign Steven Adams 3/45 and FVV 3/105 with a third year team option. Draft Coward at #10 End up as a seventh seed play in team due to injuries to Tari and FVV missing extensive time. Reed takes a big step forward and becomes the clear PG of the future. Jabari takes a step forward. Sengun offense returns and defense falls off a little.
I would imagine the most likely scenario is we are mostly running it back - we probably resign Fred to a lower number and try to retain Adams via Bird rights assuming someone doesn't make him a crazy offer. Tate and/or Holiday are likely gone after this offseason. Tari and Jabari likely don't end up with extensions(unless they take lower money now) until much later on to make them flexible in trade transactions. I'm sure Stone will look for trade partners but I get the feeling nothing major is going to happen there. While there is always an opportunity to trade if you are willing to take a bad deal, I think most in the league overvalue their assets in the offseason so there are few "deals" to be had there. Houston probably stands to make better use of their assets by continuing to have a good mix of younger guys, vets, and future picks and just keep their name out there for the next good player who might be up for grabs - effectively be "ready" for when a opportunity presents itself. I don't see a lot of players useful to us in FA, or in the trade machine right now unless Phoenix is just trying to dump Durant for minimal return....Trey Murphy is the only player I am aware of out there who might be available that the Rockets should be willing to trade significant assets for....but I would imagine NO isn't selling just yet considering they got rid of Ingram fairly recently to try to feature Murphy more but if the team goes down the drain along with Zion and they need to jump start a rebuild, they may consider it. I think the way Houston has built so far, they likely have some buy in from Tillman to have patience to only make good moves - going from a lotto team to the #2 seed just by NOT making significant transactions is proof that you don't have to make big splashy trades to get better...and this team IS going to get better this offseason even without a trade. While we can all agree that we still don't have the "go to" guy...or a reliable offense for that matter - but its important not to overcompensate because what we do have wins games and made us a tough out against a savvy vet team so let's not panic here and take bad deals just to change something.
I don't think Giannis happens, because the Rockets won't want to move Sengun or Thompson. KD feels more realistic, but the easiest pieces to move to make that deal work would be Fred or Jalen, neither of whom I'm sure the Rockets actually want to move. Phoenix is motivated to get a deal done before the draft and if the Rockets want Durant, they have more leverage than anyone because of the Phoenix picks. That being said, gun to my head, the odds statistically are that neither happens and we end up just adding guys on the fringes and work on extensions with FVV, Bari and Tari. We might see 1-2 of the lesser core young guys dealt, with Cam being the likeliest. Maybe they deal him plus another small contract to add a quality shooter to the back court or a big man to replace Adams. As boring as all that sounds, that feels likelier than us landing a massive star via trade.
I’m going to “assume” today’s comments from Giannis focused on “getting Bucks back to The Finals” reflect his real intent and not just a statement designed to get the media/teams to stop asking. If so, the Durant market is about to heat up exponentially compared to where we were 24hrs ago w/ many more teams looking to acquire him than you were hearing about 24hrs ago. This should increase the Suns asking price. My “guess” is Rockets eventually cave and pay that higher asking price even if it’s more than what many on these boards would prefer, myself probably included
A part of me says next year but there is a world where the Durant deal for average casualty can take place. Adams is priority, FVV will be negotiated, those happen 99% or I'll be damned.
Re-sign FVV to a salary most of us think is too high ($30M+) Re-sign Adams at about $12M Pick up options on Holiday and Landale. Trade Landale for two smaller contracts to fill spots of Tate and Green Populate remaining roster with minimum salaries This is not continuity for continuity’s sake. This is called running it back, because we’re that good.
Sorry guys, FVV is back as the starting PG, but we'll see a few more Sheppard minutes. Eason takes a big step forward, which creates a minutes crunch for Brooks and Jabari. Sengun emerges as a 75% FT shooter and finds a semi-reliable 15-foot jumper in the offseason (one that doesn't look like a one-legged, bail-out shot). We're drafting at #10 and picking the BPA. This is almost impossible to guess, but we'll have our choice of Jakucionis, Demin, or Carter Bryant.
Giannis and Jalen to PHX KD, Jabari, and 2 Hou Picks to Mil Booker to Houston Not that I actually think this is going to happen. What I actually think is going to happen is a 3 team trade where everyone can walk away feeling a little like they won. Jackson Gatlin has me convinced that Giannis would not fit in Houston and gutting the team to make room for him just makes us Mil south. So I don't want him. I want Booker though. I think if there's a way to get him for Jalen, Jabari, and a couple picks then yes. But I'm not a capologist or even good at understanding my personal finances. So something like this probably doesn't even work. But what I do understand is Mil is stuck in neutral and would probably like to get out from under the cost of Giannis. PHX is sinking and needs a reason to hope. Houston is rising and needs a shooting guard who has some real gravity on the court.
I agree with most of this but if that last paragraph rings true we will definitely not be a 7th seed.
I expect: 1) Rockets re-sign FVV and Adams; 2) There will be much whining and gnashing by the FVV detractors, as no matter what FVV signs for, it will be considered too much. 3) JSJ and Tari are extended 4) One of the following: a) Rockets trade for Giannis b) Run it back with the intention for Reed to get backup PG minutes such that he will replace FVV asthe starting PG sometime in the next 2 years. 5) Rockets will be a Top 4 seed in the West.
