last Wed, the day before X-Div, MSFT has been up every day since, as of Fri closing it was trading ~~455. it appears that Moody's downgrade of US debt (on last Fri) may have caused a downer (pre-market) for most blue chip US stocks, including MSFT, META, NVDA and others Pre-market transactions, for the most part, are generated by traders overseas
01:51 PM EDT, 05/19/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Microsoft (MSFT) plans to offer xAI's Grok 3 and Grok 3 mini models on its Azure AI Foundry cloud service and new tools for evaluating AI models. http://www.mtnewswires.com
that explains why, after opening at -3, momentum has been reversed to be +7, but with less-than-avg volume this time, i was able to sell the same 10-pt bearish CALL spread for $6.3, for this new 10-pt bearish CALL spread for MSFT, i am risking 3.7 to win 6.3 i need to see MSFT to be trading below 450 at 30 Jun 2025 expiration
Ya it's their BUILD conference. Updates and releases here: https://www.theverge.com/news/669382/microsoft-build-2025-news-ai-agents
OPEC+ Takes Aim at U.S. Shale, Again This week, media reports said OPEC+ could announce yet another bigger than initially planned production hike at its next meeting. On the face of it, the goal is getting quota laggards Iraq and Kazakhstan in line. The other goal, according to a new Reuters report, is to try and kill U.S. shale, again. The oil-producing club took U.S. shale on about a decade ago, turning the taps all the way and flooding the market with oil. Prices crashed. So did a lot of shale drillers at the time. Yet the ones that survived got better at getting the oil out of the shale formation cheaper—and they started taking market share from OPEC. Ten years on, U.S. shale production still features higher costs than conventional wells in Saudi Arabia overall, but the industry has come a long way since 2014 and has made significant gains in cost control and efficiency. Unfortunately, that won’t save drillers from trouble if a price war is really what OPEC—and its partners in OPEC+—is after. According to almost a dozen sources from OPEC itself and the energy industry that Reuters interviewed, OPEC is indeed after a price war. The group, these sources said, wanted to retake some market share lost to U.S. shale producers, hence the third 411,000-bpd addition to production being discussed for July. “The idea is to put a lot of uncertainty into plans by others with prices at below $60 per barrel,” said one of the Reuters sources, which the publication described as being “briefed on Saudi Arabia's thinking. In fact, there is already plenty of uncertainty for U.S. shale oil producers amid President Trump’s tariff push and the dominant outlook for oil demand in general. What’s more, the U.S. is only an actual competitor to OPEC+ in Europe, and that’s where the political leadership is putting a lot of effort into killing oil demand, so the outlook for that particular market is not among the most optimistic long-term. So, essentially, OPEC+ can just sit back and relax while U.S. shale drillers reduce production in the face of higher costs. Per the latest Dallas Fed Energy Survey, U.S. shale drillers need between $26 and $45 per barrel to cover their operating expenses at existing wells across the shale patch. But to drill new wells profitably, they need prices starting at $61 per barrel of West Texas Intermediate and reaching $70 for the Permian Basin, outside the Delaware Basin part of it. In other words, shale drilling is already expensive due to things like material inflation and natural depletion, so OPEC+ does not really need to risk its own revenues additionally just to kill the few remaining smaller independents in the patch—because Big Oil is not going to die. It’s only going to get bigger. The Reuters report suggesting OPEC+ wants to flood the market with cheap oil to hurt U.S. shale notes that OPEC’s share of global oil supply had fallen over the last couple of decades from over 50% before the shale revolution to 40% a decade ago and “just” 25% this year. The U.S. share, meanwhile, has risen from 14% to 20%. However, 25% is still a solid percentage of global supply, and with OPEC+, this share rises to a rather respectable 48%, which is pretty close to half the world’s supply. Indeed, OPEC+ is not as united in its strategy as OPEC was on its own, as evidenced by Kazakhstan’s production behavior, yet the group remains a potentially formidable force for the oil market by virtue of its collective output. U.S. drillers, meanwhile, are facing additional trouble from wastewater reservoirs, Bloomberg reported just this week. Due to the accumulation of wastewater underground, the risk of leaks has increased, and the Railroad Commission of Texas is taking steps in the form of drilling restrictions until such time as underground disposal reservoir pressure falls. This, by the way, means that all those forecasts pointing to non-OPEC supply growth outpacing OPEC supply growth are no longer worth the devices they were written on. Even the International Energy Agency has changed its tune on non-OPEC supply growth, recognizing U.S. shale’s challenges that have affected production plans. It still expects non-OPEC to add more supply than OPEC for some reason, but not all of it from the U.S. In addition to not really needing to do anything to make U.S. shale suffer, there is also another important consideration for OPEC+ before it goes into price war mode. There are no real winners in price wars. Everyone gets hurt in it, as Reuters points out in its report. And while Middle Eastern producers boast low production costs for their conventional wells, they need high prices for their oil because it represents a significant portion of their budget revenues. So if a price war is indeed what OPEC+ wants to do with U.S. shale, it will probably be a more subtle price war than the one from 2014
Aspire biopharma opened at 39 cents and got to $1.10. A sublingual Aspirin changes the way you chew gum
Some of you guys would have laughed at me when I said I invested a significant amount in gold and silver miners on the OTC market. Today it finally paid off. Long live Peter Schiff. Basically I dissected his mutual fund and bought his recommendations.
Elon gave a date of June 12th for RoboTaxi. Shares are up around $7.60 (as of now) in post-market trading. Nvidia beat on estimates; up about $5 in post-market.
This might deserve to be cross posted in the Scandal thread, but will start here. Tesla investors demand Musk work 40-hour week at EV maker as ‘crisis’ builds Elon Musk needs to spend more time at Tesla as his electric vehicle company faces a “crisis,” according to a letter on Wednesday from a group of pension fund leaders who manage investments in the company. “Tesla’s stock price volatility, declining sales, as well as disconcerting reports regarding the company’s human rights practices, and a plummeting global reputation are cause for serious concern,” the investors wrote in a letter to Robyn Denholm, the company’s board chair. “Moreover, many issues are linked to Mr. Musk’s actions outside of his role as Technoking and Chief Executive Officer at Tesla, including his high-profile role as an architect of the U.S. Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).” The investors want the Tesla board to require Musk to work a minimum of 40 hours per week at the automaker as a condition of any new compensation plan they may arrange for him. They also want a clear succession plan for management of the EV business, and a policy that would apply to all Tesla directors limiting their outside board commitments at public and private companies. Early last year, the Delaware Court of Chancery ordered Tesla to rescind Musk’s 2018 CEO pay package, which had been worth around $56 billion, finding that Musk controlled the company, and the board’s compensation committee misled shareholders before seeking their vote to approve the plan. Musk now says he wants even more shares, amounting to 25% voting control of the company. Tesla’s brand value and reputation have declined since 2024, due largely to Musk’s incendiary rhetoric and political activities. In addition to pouring nearly $300 million into an effort to get Donald Trump back into the White House, Musk formally endorsed Germany’s far-right AfD party ahead of the country’s parliamentary election this year. At DOGE, Musk has led an initiative by the Trump administration to slash federal agencies. Tesla once ranked eighth among the most popular American brands in the Axios Harris Poll of public perceptions of the 100 most visible U.S. companies. But recently, Tesla dropped to 95th, behind six other automakers in that poll. Tesla’s stock price is down 12% this year, while the Nasdaq is down just 1%. Data this week revealed that Tesla’s monthly sales across Europe plunged by nearly half in April compared to the same time last year. That trend extends the steep declines Tesla saw in the first quarter. The investors who signed Wednesday’s letter own about 7.9 million shares in the company combined. They blamed a Tesla board that’s “unwilling to act in the best interest of all Tesla shareholders” by requiring Musk’s “full-time attention” on the company. Musk said this week that he plans to focus more on his businesses, which include xAI and SpaceX in addition to Tesla. Those who signed the letter included the pro-labor SOC Investment Group, American Federation of Teachers, New York City Comptroller Brad Lander and Oregon State Treasurer Elizabeth Steiner. The investors asked Tesla to add at least one new independent director with no personal ties to other board members. Tesla earlier this month said former Chipotle CFO Jack Hartung will join the company’s board. Hartung previously worked with Musk’s brother and Tesla board member Kimbal Musk, who was a board member at the Mexican food chain. Tesla didn’t respond to a request for comment in response to the letter.
as of closing on 5-28, NVDA was ~~ 134 in the earnings call, after market closing, NVDA results beat estimates on revenue/gross margin for the quarter, and maintain its guidance for the year. after-market trading was ~~ 142. this bodes well for the bullish PUT spread for NVDA also, this latest development, Federal court rules Trump doesn't have the power to impose tariffs unilaterally , should also drive NVDA stock price higher
msft has just started a down trend, -3 for today, closed at 457, hope the down trend accelerates, to be less than 450 by Friday closing
the under current of the TACO trade is too strong. msft hs risen more than 10 points after X-Div; losss $ on this one, had to pay $10, net loss of $5.55
no one knows more about Trump or has transacted more with Trump than Deutche Bank. Why Did Deutsche Bank Keep Lending to Donald Trump, for more than 4 decades? This week, the Deutsche Bank strategists led by Binky Chadha upped their year-end price target for the S&P 500 index; The upgrade was largely tied to the idea the Trump 2.0 has “already relented” on tariffs and there will be “further relents” on additional “economic or political pains", bluntly put, there will be more eg of TACO get your shopping list for TACO trades ready; META is on my list
META just announced that, by 2026, its AI tools will help advertisers to fully automate ads/videos targeting specific audiences. META is trading ~~ 688; Technically, its trading actions show a golden cross---the 20 MA protruding up thru the 50MA/100MA/200MA--- underscoring the strength of the current up trend my technical analysis suggests that by the next earnings, it will be nearing its Feb 2025 high of 740 the next earning release will be ~~7-30-2025, constructed this 80-point bullish PUT spread using Aug expiration. buy to open the 625 strike PUT contract sell to open the 705 strike PUT contract. collected a premium of $31.95 in advance, which defines my max risk of $48.05 willing to assume a potential max risk of $48.05 to win the $31.95
Last week was the best of my life financially. Silver and (more importantly for me) silver stocks are on fire. Yet the mainstream media is silent.
