Cam has shot well above league avg for multiple years. Dillon has only shot really well 1 yr. I wouldnt bet anything valuable hes going to replicate that. Cam is also just a better shooter and offensive player overall. As far as the defense... Hes been a good defender until he went to a headless chicken team in Brooklyn. Last 4 years, even with his Brooklyn stint, Cam has only been marginally worse than Dillon on defense. Hes been a better player than Dillon across the board really.
Dillon shot 36% from 3 last year. His shot isnt a one hit wonder given the volume he has been taking the last 2 yrs. If Cam Johnson is as good as you say he would be worth a low lotto pick straight up. Dillon has been an almost star level role player for this team often guarding the best player and also spotting up for 39% from 3. Someone better than him would be worth a low lotto straight up and not needing a trade down for 9.
Johnson is a combo forward at this point in his career, he can't defend smaller wings. We have four guys who can play both forward positions on the roster already (Amen, Jabari, Tari, Dillon). Too many good players, not enough minutes--it's a recipe for players dissatisfied with their playing time, and he also goes into our position with the most depth and the best shooters (Dillon and Jabari). That doesn't mean we can't do it though, it just means that if we trade for Johnson we need to figure out a way to trade one of our other forwards into another deal that makes sense (preferably Tari, IMO), probably to upgrade the backcourt. Could also be for a backup center who can shoot, but not sure who that would be.
Neither Brooks nor Johnson is true PF. Cam is 6'8 and light weight, very undersized at the 4 spot. Brooks is stronger but only 6'6. Both are weak at rebounding and shot blocking. If we get Cam and keep Dillon, they will have to decide who starts at the 3 spot. We already have 3 guys who can start at the 4 spot. Dillon is clearly better at defense. Cam is better at shooting. I said it earlier. Cam is a career 40% 3pt shooter. Dillon shot near 40% only once (last season) in his career. His career average is 36%. To use Dillon's average last season to compare to Cam's career average is not fair. If we trade Dillon for Cam, we will be better on offense but worse on defense. But if we trade Jalen for Cam, then we move Amen to the backcourt. The 4 spot will be manned by Bari and Tari. The 3 spot will be manned by Cam and Dillon. Apart from the possible discontent about minutes, the 4-man rotation would be very strong and would give Ime a lot of flexibility for different matchups.
Something that I think would help people understand how Stone/Witus make moves -- think less right now about setting up the team for next season, and think more about how to create advantageous situations (contracts, trades etc.) two and three years from now. The strategic plans for setting up the team for next season have already been set in motion over the last 1-2 years. Trade for Cam Johnson, then what? You have to extend him at ~$30M+ for his age 31-34 seasons next summer or trade him/lose him as a FA. There's no slot in our long term salary structure for that. Same is true of Dillon; we're not going to extend him at his market rate number to be our 4th best wing. So he's not going to be here after next summer at the latest. Trading down from #10 to #19 and picking up one of Brooklyn's extra future firsts? Trading Dillon somewhere else after extending Tari and Jabari on team friendly deals because Dillon is the "starter", bringing back salary filler and a future pick? Those are the kind of things that set us up in the future.
The problem is, we are already slightly into the Luxury Tax, so acquiring Hauser without sending anything out put's us $12M into the tax even before we fill the spots vacated by Adams, Tate and Uncle Jeff. I'd be all for acquiring Hauser for Landale, but that doesn't do much for Boston's cap situation this coming year (though it would help for the following four). The thing that people don't seem to realize is that this team is in the Luxury tax if all they do is pick up the options on Holiday and Landale. We would still have three holes to fill. There is going to have to be a significant trade made (FVV, JG or Sengun for multiple players in return), or the team is going to have to extend FVV at a rate of around $20M per year. That figure would allow us to fill out the roster this year and extend Jabari and Tari this summer (which would take effect next year). If FVV extends for more than that, one of them will definitely be gone and a consolidation trade will have to be made, which probably needs to happen anyway.
I think Landale’s contract is non-guaranteed and Boston could release him immediately. Could be wrong though.
This team is in the luxury tax only on a temporary, superficial level. After the expected moves we will be ~$8-15M under the tax depending on whether we draft at #10. Landale and Holiday will not have options picked up. Not much doubt about that. Could be back on minimums. FVV’s new number could be anywhere from $20-30M/yr, likely around $25M. Adams could be anywhere from $8-14M. likely around $10M. That’s $175M for 11 players with the #10 pick included. With minimum roster charges that’s a $178M payroll. The tax line is $188M.
We were the second seed last season. Our goal should be to stay under the aprons, not the luxury tax.
I really just don’t understand the 20-25m for FVV. Why? Nobody that wants him has the cap room for 20m. His market is 14.1m at the most. If the Rockets give more than that they are being fiscally irresponsible. They are under no obligation to pay FVV a premium, because the overpaid him demonstrably for his first two years.
I think the Lakers are going to go hard at Adams and probably the possibility of starting will swing things there ways. If we overpay FVV then we won’t be able to afford Adams.
