As I’ve gotten older I have come to believe pretty firmly that most men peak somewhere between 30 and 60. Yes, our physical abilities and mental acuity peak in our 20s, but in terms of overall productivity and quality of being, wisdom and maturity count for an awful lot. We’ve seen plenty of examples of the most powerful people on earth being much older; some of that is the result of flaws in society but some of it is that those people know how to win at life. I imagine for the vast majority of people once they get into their 60s and beyond, the physical limitations really start to eat into quality of life so it’s hard for me to believe that very many people’s best years come after 60. Personally I am in my mid-40s and the last few years have been the best of my life so far. I tell the young people in my life that if you develop good habits when you’re young (invest your money, take care of your body and mind, be kind to others, practice gratitude) then your 40s will be better than your 20s. Mine have been.
Physically I peaked at 23-24. Then I was mangled in a vehicle accident. Maturity wise... I peaked at 14. I've gone downhill ever since.
My mental acuity probably peaked at 20-21. I was a late bloomer physically and didn’t peak in that regard until 26-27. But I think here in my mid 40s I’m at my prime in terms of overall productivity and quality of being; I can’t imagine things will get much better but I’m hopeful they won’t get much worse for another 10-15 years.
I entered this conversation on your "he's got a lot of room for improvement". I'm just saying there is a reasonable expectation that he might not have "a lot of room for improvement" based on how the average MLB player plays from the age of 25. You are making as much a determination as I am. Though there were a lot of caveats in my post with words like most, expect, hoping, maybe: Most MLB players peak around 25. Maybe Dezenzo is a late bloomer. I'm hoping he has 2-4 good years like Chas. I don't expect him to be playing much into his 30s. Survivor-biased data should not be applied as it only looks at a portion of the population. Even then, your 27-32 peak seems very slanted.
The statistics are on your side - but baseball is the one sport where there are plenty of guys that do not hit their stride until later, especially if they did not have a lot of at bats earlier in their career. Even a guy like Christian Walker took awhile to emerge. I think that it is dangerous to assume, but I trust Brown and his staff to identify whether a young player has "it".
This is from 2010 but found trends pretty consistent over time. How Do Baseball Players Age?: Investigating the Age-27 Theory | Baseball Prospectus I used the data to look at several different aspects of player performance from the general to the specific. Overall, I found that both hitters and pitchers peaked around age 29. However, some skills peaked earlier and others peaked later. Peak Age by Skill Hitters Pitchers Metric Peak Age Metric Peak Age Linear Weights 29.4 ERA 29.2 OBP 30.0 Strikeout Rate 23.6 SLG 28.6 Walk Rate 32.5 AVG 28.4 Home Run Rate 27.4 Walk Rate 32.3 2B+3B Rate 28.3 Home Run Rate 29.9 The table reveals that player skills peak at different times, often quite far apart from each other. Hitters peak in batting and slugging average at 28 while continuing to improve in their home-run hitting and walking abilities until 30 and 32, respectively. Home runs rising beyond the peak for doubles and triples indicates that foot-speed on the basepaths fades before hitting power. In addition, batters may be using veteran knowledge to better manage the strike-zone-or possibly becoming more friendly with umpires-to walk more and hit with power as they age. Pitcher strikeout ability peaks around 24, while walk prevention peaks nine years later. Again, veteran know-how appears to be playing a role in improving performance to compensate for diminishing physical skills. This is consistent with something that exercise physiologists have documented among golfers who hit more fairways as driving distance begins to fade. It’s also been observed that athletic feats that involve quick bursts of speed and strength peak earlier than skills that rely on more endurance and knowledge.
Agree to disagree. As a very avg athlete my best years were 27-32. Look at most players in all sports and I think you will come to the coclusion that a players best years come during these years. Maybe you wont.
Me too, but I dont think 50 games is enough to be able to judge how a players career is going to turnout.
Not sure how you define "competitive softball", so I don't even know if that's what I was playing up until about 40 My big mistake was too many sports early in life
When I was young, I was too small. When I got big enough, I was too slow and too far behind. So I tried being the best fan I could be. I wasn't great at that either and settled on being a fair weather fan.
Where was Tucker after 50 games? If he hadn't been a fair haired kid, he might have been relegated to AAAA.
We had a guest wrote a column on our blog (read and subscribe) that’s pretty awesome torching the Astros medical staff in a humorous way. Check it out.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/despite...astros-are-breathing-down-the-mariners-necks/ Decent article on the state of the Astros. Pena has been the most valuable SS in MLB so far this season. Smith has a 130 wRC+ over the last month. So does Caratini. Outside of the game he didn’t make it out of the first, McCullers has pitched like a playoff caliber SP. Astros are 16-8 over their last 24 games. Seems like the season has been a rollercoaster but Houston is right where they need to be. They need to build a little lead in the division over the next 3-4 weeks. Getting Yordan and Arrighetti (and later on, Javier) back will be huge. This is starting to feel more like a Moneyball A’s team than an Astroball “tank and build a Death Star” team.
Potential 5 All stars: Paredes since he already had his first appearance last season. Jeremy fo' sho should be the official face of baseball. no Romo. Hader, Brother Brown and Valdez have been extraordinary.
OK, that was hilarious. "Rubbed aggrieved area vigorously with fertile topsoil" was my favorite line.
