I’m trying to minimize the amount of time the big league team isn’t good. Whatever the most efficient path for that may be. It may not be time to sell but if Yordan Alvarez is out for the year then it would be stupid for them to sit on their hands or overspend on a non-contending roster or delay the inevitable. You can cling to your ideas that Miguel Tejada and Carlos Lee and Kaz Matsui are gonna be the missing pieces.
If Corbin Burnes injury ends up being significant- the Diamondbacks could fade fast. He’s been about the only consistent in an entire rotation who has grossly underperformed.
Gallen and Kelly are both rental SP that Houston might be interested in. If prices are what they were last deadline, a package comparable to what Houston gave up for Kikuchi would be something like Whitcomb, Dezenzo, and High A P Bryce Mayer.
I'm thinking that may be right for Kelly. I think Gallen is valued and bit more than Kikuchi was and may cost a bit more. My understanding is that's a bit too deep in hhe pool for the Astros. Looking for more of a #5 than a potential post season starter.
One thing to consider when thinking about these deals. The Astros will not go over the CBT this year now that they are competing while $4.6M under and spent less than $5M at the deadline last year. It is just to much of an advantage to Crane to reset the threshold and not pay a 2nd year.
I'm sure they know better than us what the real CBT number is and will avoid it if possible. It's all fungible, get a team to pay part of the cost, give up an additional prospect or something else of value. Mets paid a lot of JV's contract. Greinke's deal came with a lot of money paid. If they really need a bat or an arm, Dana can figure it out.
If we are in the hunt and have a lead, Crane will go over and figure it out. It's a long time to July. With the schedule this month, we should be good enough record wise . . . we will buy some pitching and the market will dictate, not the CBT. He'll pay attention to it, but if it is the difference between a Kyle Stowers and a rando pitcher or nothing . . . they'll pay up. History is on their side.
I will believe it when I see it. I'm sure that was true before the season started. But based on the benefits of resetting the CBT vs the penalties for going over it and where they currently are, I would be SHOCKED if they go over it. Last year they Got a playoff caliber SP, 2 bullpen arms, and 2 bats that produced at 2.0 and 1.6 WAR pace respectively and they only spent about $5M I'm sure Crane will expect any additions to fall under the CBT.
Assuming the Astros will be deadline buyers, here’s how I’d group Houston’s trade chips: Tier 1: none; these are star big leaguers or MLB Top 50 prospects that headline blockbuster trades. As buyers with a weak farm system, Houston will not make any of these type of players available. Tier 2: CF Jacob Melton, 2B Brice Matthews, P Miguel Ullola, CF Jake Meyers, P Spencer Arrighetti, OF Kevin Alvarez; these are good big league players or Top 100-type prospects that headline a package on a very meaningful trade. Houston has a glut of outfielders so it wouldn’t shock me if Melton or Meyers were made available. The only way Arrighetti is traded is if Houston acquired another controllable SP. Matthews and Ullola are Houston’s top prospects and should be highly valued. Alvarez isn’t necessarily that valuable (yet), but he’s the type of prospect teams don’t trade unless they’re overwhelmed. Tier 3: OF Zach Dezenzo, OF Shay Whitcomb, OF Chas McCormick, P AJ Blubaugh, P Anderson Brito, P Ethan Pecko, OF Joseph Sullivan, C Walker Janek, P Ryan Forcucci; these are players or prospects who won’t headline a big trade, but can be important pieces in a big trade or headliners on lesser trades. I suspect Houston will value Pecko and Forcucci higher than this tier so they are very unlikely to be traded. Sullivan may be Houston’s prospect who is most likely to be traded. Tier 4: P Forrest Whitley, P Ryan Gusto, P Colton Gordon, OF Kenedy Corona, OF Pedro Leon, P Trey Dombroski, P Jose Fleury, P Michael Knorr, P Alimber Santa, P Jackson Nezuh, P Manuel Urias, P Bryce Mayer, P Juan Bello, P Alex Santos, 1B Luis Baez, C Will Bush, P Alonzo Tredwell, C Jancel Villarroel, IF Chase Jaworsky, OF Kenni Gomez, IF Caden Powell, OF Lucas Spence, P Luis Rodriguez, IF Alberto Hernandez, IF German Ramirez; these are lesser prospects who are valued much differently from team to team, but are often important 3rd pieces in major trades or are surprise headliners of lesser trades. Teams can get burned trading these types of players. My current ideal realistic deadline for the Astros would have them adding Gavin Lux and Andrew Heaney for 3 players from that Tier 3 group (preferably Dezenzo, Whitcomb, and Blubaugh) and 1-2 players from the Tier 4 group.
Lux for Dezenzo, Blubaugh, and Tredwell Heaney for Whitcomb, Mayer and Sullivan Playoff roster: SS Pena 3B Paredes DH Alvarez LF Altuve 1B Walker 2B Lux RF Smith C Diaz CF Meyers Bench: Dubon, Caratini, Melton, Salazar SP: Framber, Brown, Heaney, Arrighetti RP: Hader, Abreu, King, Okert, Dubin, Sousa, Garcia, Javier, McCullers Next in line: Gusto, Gordon, Walter, Ullola, Dombroski, Knorr, VanWey, McCormick, Leon, Corona
There are so many platoon guys out there . . . I haven't seen us platoon in a while. Like really platoon. I can't figure out if it is something the front office would like or not. Right now, if there's a left handed bat in the club house, they gonna play. I ask because I wonder if some of these platoon guys could be more valuable to the Astros than they are to their current clubs? or . . . no, doesn't really play into it . . . just curios on thoughts.
I have been higher (or at least hopeful) on Gomez since I first read about him but I think Sullivan has passed him in the future potential CF hierarchy. And based on hype and "how much development/improvement have we seen" I feel other teams likely agree. If Sullivan is a 3, Gomez is likely no higher than a 3.
Gomez is a good prospect but he’s going on 200+ pa in High A with a k rate >30% and an extremely low walk rate with very little power. A bet on him as a tier 2 value is a bet that hes going to take a gigantic leap forward in multiple areas (power, plate discipline, contact rate). I would buy him as a tier 3 guy if a team evaluates ceiling over production. But he’s not a tier 2 guy. There are a good amount of guys I put in tier 4 who have an argument to be tier 3: Gomez, Jaworsky, Gusto, Fleury, Santa, Santos, Bello, Nezuh, Baez
Thing is The Astros front office doesn’t necessarily know how other teams rate our prospects, so I’m fairly certain we don’t either
Stros absolutely know how other teams rate them (more or less), once they're talking to other teams about trading them There are constant conversations happening all around the league
