So I was looking at the injured Astros pitcher that are due to return this season. Luis Garcia is scheduled to throw his next bullpen June 1. Expected to return in late July to early August. Arrighetti resumed playing catch May 27. He’s expected back in July. Christian Javier has been throwing off the mound in West Palm Beach, Fla., on May 9 and will be built up slowly. Expected back in Mid 2025 season (so perhaps late July or early August). J.P. France is throwing off the mound in West Palm Beach, Fla. He’s expected back in late 2025. If Javier, Araghetti, Garcia can get back and be effective, they will shore up the very thin Starting pitching. There are 4 very good pitchers due to make comeback starting in July. With June being the easier part of the schedule, this may work out with the band aid approach after McCullers. Which of the 4 pitchers do you guys figure to be most effective. My vote is for Javier, his fast ball was so effective…. Luis Garcia was affected by the pitch clock, so I don’t know if he will be as good even if he regains his old form. Areghetti is still getting better, but he’s still learning, but he just needs more innings. And JP France seems like an innings eater pitcher, ML quality but 5th starter at best.
Based on the Astros track record, more realistic expectations would be: Javier: late August 2025 Arrighetti: late August 2025 Garcia: out for season, 50/50 for opening day 2026 France: out for season, 50/50 for opening day 2026 Wesneski: late August 2026 Blanco: April 2027 Astros need Framber, Brown, and McCullers to stay healthy. They can get by rotating thru 2 of Gusto, Gordon, Walter, Blubaugh, Alexander, and (eventually) Ullola. If they expect to make the playoffs they will add a SP at the deadline, potentially 2.
Thanks. I think your estimates make more sense than what the Astros are putting out there. I found it weird that Javier and Arraghetti are supposedly expected back in July. And Garcia and France could be back by August. Because there isn’t much chatter about anyone but Arraghetti coming back to reinforce the starting rotation. If Javier and Arraghetti can get back and be effective, that will shore up the pitching staff for a postseason run. https://www.mlb.com/news/astros-inj...s-index&rsid=mlbios.at.bat.new.implementation
When an Astros pitcher is returning from a serious injury, it generally takes 6 weeks from when they start throwing full throttle (2 weeks of bullpens then a month of rehab starts). So the earliest possible return for Arrighetti or Javier would be late July, and that’s if they start throwing bullpens/sim games within the next 10 days. Technically Garcia is the one who could come back in July since he’s already throwing bullpens but I’m skeptical he will ever pitch in the majors again; if he goes out on a rehab start by June 15th then I will start to have some hope.
I don’t know that Arrighetti will take as long to heat up. Broken bone is a broken bone and it needs to heal and then you don’t need to baby it. He seems like he should be 4 weeks from the moment he gets up on a mound. Couple bullpens and then 3 or 4 rehab starts (depending upon how they go, and then good to go.
I think from a pitching standpoint Arrighetti or Javier back and healthy by September is a necessity.
We will see. Trade deadline for Arrighetti seems way too long, but it’s not like this team surprises by getting guys back sooner.
I agree. Spencer has a completely different type of injury. Nothing about it should cause reason to be overly cautious. He should get 3 or 4 rehab starts then get back to Houston, even if he's only up to 70ish pitches. He can build up in Houston. Gusto or Gordon don't get past the 3rd inning anyway.
Postgame said Javier's '25 return is just about nonexistent. I'm not sure if the Astros are still focusing on spin-rates or if that increases injury risk, but the amount of TJS going on in the organization has to be a record amount. All these injuries are unbelievable -- and it's another reason the farm system is so depleted. We're having to replace injured pitchers via trades.
They are not having the most TJSs in MLB. There are several teams, including the Dodgers and Rays off the top of my head who have just as many. What they are doing is fu**ing up the rehab and return to MLB process.
Who are these several teams? Rays are not one. Maybe the Dodgers are. And do those teams emphasize spin-rate? Two things can be true at the same time. 1) Astros philosophy increases pitcher injury and 2) Astros suck during the return process from injury (whether it’s TJS or any other injury)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gQujXQQGOVNaiuwSN680Hq-FDVsCwvN-3AazykOBON0/ Can choose TJ list at the top.
Arrighetti, he's the only P not coming back from TJ. From what I've seen is it usually take awhile for pitchers to get back to the level they were at before TJ. I'm hoping Dana trades for a SP3 at the deadline. Until then, I'm hoping they call Mayer back up. He looks better than Gordon. Hopefully Gusto can regain his control/command.
From the bottom of my rosters page Injured 10 Day C McCormick June OF T Trammell TBD Z Dezenzo TBD Y Alvarez* TBD Injured 15 Day S Arrighetti July P Javier July/Aug Injured 60 Day P Garcia July/Aug P France late 2025? Injured Full Season P Blanco 2026 P Wesneski 2026
