Agreed with most of this. I would do what it takes to sign Parades long term and I would also sign Diaz long term. Diaz started the season in a slump and I've got confidence his bat will come around.
The issue I have with Diaz is that he looks less like a long term catcher than he did this time last year. With the DH being plugged up for the next 4-5 years with Yordan and Altuve, it looks like he may not fit on the Astros 2028+
If he gives enough of a damn to work at being a catcher, he'll be a great one. He has all the requisite tools.
You are usually pretty good at this but that smith deal is awful from the astros perspective. That’s basically guaranteeing him full time arbitration max and then 2/80 on top of that. Way too much.
Sure. He’s not a super two guy. 40M tops is my bet. I mean, if he wants to win an mvp in his first 3 years, sure, maybe he can get higher. But look at Tucker- what did he get like 35m or something? And that’s a guy that had a couple all star appearances.
Record after 55 games: 2017 39-16 2018 35-20 2019 36-19 2020 28-27 2021 31-24 2022 35-20 2023 32-23 2024 24-31 2025 30-25 Houston probably 2-3 games off where they’d ideally be, but all in all they’re in great shape.
If your estimate for those 2 arb years is $40M then that means they’re getting 3 free agent years for $90M. He’s a 4-5 win player. Thats a very good value imo. It’s reasonable to disagree.
On Lance, he's always had excellent stuff. His breaking ball has always been a 70+ and his change-up is also a plus pitch. His fastball used to be a plus pitch. It doesn't look great so far, but to his credit he is PITCHING more than throwing. Now , a couple of things will happen the remainder of the year that will determine how good Lance will be . #1 - teams will start scouting him again #2 - lance will knock off rust and try to improve. of course he needs to be healthy. If he can get his fastball to be a decent offering then he could be a great playoff starter. If his fastball stays at its current level , well , you guys saw how much he has had to pitch on his breaking stuff. It worked great today vs the A's , but wont work against a playoff caliber team that has 20 more starts of film on him ... imo I think he can work the fastball into something more effective . Maybe try a cutter too ? Gotta get a little sink back or something. Hey , maybe try to 4 seamer again ? What do we think he's been throwing ? Anyways , loved seeing the life on his breaking ball today. His chage-up has also always been awesome. But he needs perfect location and great sequencing otherwise he will be a guy who will get hammered on mistakes.
No- 3 arb years 40M tops (for Cam). I’m fine with disagreeing occasionally. I want you on my pod and writing the occasional blog!
It’s kind of crazy that the Astros are on pace for 50 fwar as a team (evenly split between pitching and offense), which is normally a threshold for 100+ win teams, but they are only on pace for 88 wins.
Our team has been the opposite of clutch when it comes to hitting. Even if we were average with RISP, would would be running away with the division.
