Where is this team in 2030? Current rookies and prospects are the only ones who are under control after 2029.
That’s more than 5 seasons away. Smith and Dezenzo are the only position players under control thru then and Gusto and Contreras are the only pitchers. You’d be hard pressed to predict more than 2-3 players and there’s absolutely no way to know how good they’ll be. There are no guaranteed contracts on the books so the payroll is completely clear. To discuss 2030 is to really just discuss what you expect from Dana Brown and Jim Crane. If Dana Brown is good at his job the team will be good. If Jim Crane continues to field a top 8 payroll then the team should be good. If I were betting, I don’t think Crane will still own the team in 2030 and I don’t think Brown will be GM.
Taking a stab at a 2030 roster: C Janek 1B Dezenzo 2B Matthews SS TBD draft pick 3B TBD free agent RF Smith CF Gomez LF Sullivan DH Alvarez extension Bench: Melton, Jaworsky, Salazar, SP: Pecko, Brito, Forcucci, TBD free agent, Blubaugh, Hicks RP: Ullola, TBD free agent x2, TBD trade x2, TBD waiver claim, TBD draft pick I will be shocked if that is even 10% correct
Looks like fun. Here's what I've got. C Janek 1B Diaz?, Baez? 2B Matthews SS Sacco? Jaworski? Powell? 3B Not yet in the organization. RF Cole?, Corona? CF Sullivan LF Gomez DH Kevin Alvarez Bench: C, Schiavone IF, Sacco? Jaworski? Powell? OF, Melton Bat, Not yet in the organization. SP: Forcucci, Brito, Pecko, Smith, Bello, Beck RP: Not even gonna try these.
Most everyone will be off the roster... except Altuve who'll be playing catcher and still chasing 3k.
I was looking at this analysis a little more while watching the game tonight. In April 2016, Houston had 7 players in their system who would go on to produce 10+ fwar for them: George Springer produced 19.9 fwar over 2016-2020. Jose Altuve produced 25.7 fwar over 2016-2019 (the years for which he was controlled at the time). Carlos Correa produced 22.9 fwar from 2016-2021. Lance McCullers Jr produced 12.3 fwar from 2016-2022 (the years for which he was controlled at the time). Alex Bregman started 2016 as a prospect but would go on to produce 31 fwar over the 7 seasons for which he was originally controlled. Kyle Tucker was a prospect in the lower minors in 2016, but went on to produce 21 fwar over his controlled years. Framber Valdez was also a prospect in the lower minors in 2016, and went on to produce ~20 fwar for Houston (including his projected 2025 total). The Astros currently have 6 players who project to contribute 10+ fwar for them from 2025 forward: Yordan Alvarez, controlled thru 2028 Jose Altuve, controlled thru 2029 Isaac Paredes, controlled thru 2027 Yainer Diaz, controlled thru 2028 Hunter Brown, controlled thru 2028 Cam Smith, controlled thru 2030 To map it out: Yordan=Springer Smith<Tucker Brown=McCullers Altuve(2025)<Altuve(2016) Paredes<Bregman Diaz<Correa ?????=Framber That’s really the difference in the organizational outlook between now and the beginning of the run in 2016. Assuming Houston has at least one true pitching gem in their farm system, it really boils down to a difference of one true superstar level player, or even just 2 really good (but not quite superstar level) players.
I believe Gomez is one of the guys that has a chance to be a superstar or at worst really good. There are several others that have that ability. If the young Alvarez bat is as good as they say it is then he certainly could be another. I'm still very high on Baez. Pitchers in the system that have the best chance to hit SP1 are Brito/Ullola/Blubaugh IMHO.
It is amazing to look back at the “stacked” farm system the Astros had in 2016 and realize the number of highly touted prospects they didn’t get anything from. Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez were the only true difference makers. Reed, Martes, Cameron, Moran, Fisher, and Davis were all very highly regarded and became nothing. Yes, Houston was also able to make several meaningful trades for Verlander, Cole, and Pressly with prospects in the system in 2016, but to have a top 5 farm and only get 3 core pieces out of it is kind of crazy. I think there’s as much upside as downside in this analysis, because so many of Houston’s depth prospects have upside. I also think if Dana Brown is good at his job, Houston will perform better in the draft than they did from 2016 to 2022. We’ll see. It is still pretty mind blowing to me that the real difference between a contending team and a team mired in mediocrity boils down to 1-3 really good controllable young players out of an organization of 200+ players.
Wow, agreed Who in the system do you think are the 1-3 position players that have a chance to hit you criteria? 1-2 Pitchers?
Guys I think have potential to post 20+ fwar in their controllable years: Moderate risk: Cam Smith High risk: Brice Matthews Jacob Melton Extreme risk: Zach Dezenzo Joseph Sullivan Kenni Gomez Kenedy Corona Zach Cole Kevin Alvarez I don’t think Jaworsky or Janek will hit well enough. Baez doesn’t have the defensive value. Pitchers are just too unpredictable and I don’t seriously expect any of Houston’s pitching prospects to put up 20+ war in their career, but Ullola, Blubaugh, Forcucci, Brito, and Pecko are really good pitching prospects, and there’s a boatload of guys with the ceiling to be really good.
Not going to do another deep dive update on this until after the trade deadline, but there’s been some significant developments over the last 2 months that will impact the medium term outlook: Pena, Paredes, and Meyers are having breakout seasons that appear sustainable. They are all controllable thru 2027. That is shaping up to be a big inflection point with those 3, Walker, and Javier all reaching free agency. Hunter Brown is now a certified ace and projects to be one of the 10 best pitchers in baseball over the remainder of his controllable years (thru 2028). His value is immense. The Astros continue to churn out pitchers (both RP and BoR SP) to backfill injuries and guys who fall off. They currently have the deepest bullpen in MLB and none of them are pending free agents. Walker’s contract is officially underwater. There’s no chance Houston could trade him without eating money or including prospects. I would say at this point his contract is about $15M-$20M underwater, but that could turn around quick if he rebounds. Diaz, Yordan, and Altuve have had pretty dreadful starts that have lowered their projections in future years. The Astros have had more pitching injuries that will impact their projection: Arrighetti is out until the 2nd half, and is unlikely to have a breakout this season to solidify him as more than what he was coming into the season. Blanco and Wesneski had surgery and are out this season and most of next season. Garcia’s career could be over. The net of all that is a slight improvement in the outlook for 2026-2027 and slight downgrade from 2028-2029. Overall, the vibe is the same: Houston should easily be able to field a 90-95 win team thru 2027, and if they continue to sustain high payrolls and/or have a little luck with player development, they should be a contender thru at least 2029. Things to watch over June-July: Overperforming and underperforming players. A lot of potential variance in outlook for Paredes, Pena, Meyers, Altuve, Yainer, Alvarez, and Walker. Young players. Smith, Melton, Matthews, Dezenzo, Ullola, and possibly others (Sullivan, Janek, Brito, Pecko) could breakout and dramatically improve the outlook. Pitcher health. The ever-looming factor. Strong, healthy finishes to 2025 for McCullers, Javier, and Arrighetti would improve the outlook.
Melton up and Whitcomb back up. How these 2 guys perform in this chance could have a significant impact on expectations for the next 6+ years.
Not all that optimistic about Whitcomb as a core piece but certainly the ceiling is there; he has 30 HR potential and only 4 2B hit 20+ HR last season. I am excited about Melton. Of course there’s risk but he has a chance to be a star. Prime Joc Pederson’s bat with prime George Springer’s defense and speed makes for a superstar. I am also excited about Matthews. Very unlikely they all pan out but Smith, Melton, and Matthews could represent a new core.
