Just got home from this game with my son. The game was a great pitching duel between the starters. The Aviator’s pitcher made a mistake and Corona made him pay. Brandon Walter looked great, though got squeezed by the umpire a bit. Other than a rocky first inning, he did great, not allowing a run. Overall, it was a great game, and if you haven’t been to Constellation Field, I couldn’t recommend it enough.
I think that you way overrate the ability to throw strikes for Astros prospects in the minors and way undervalue their swing and miss. A tenant of the Astros development with pitchers seems to be upping velocity and spin as they work early on their stuff. As they advance more the. They try to work on control of the strike zone. Ullola, like Hunter brown and Arrighetti, has good stuff and swing and miss. Brown learned to control the zone after concerns existed he would be Abreu (still not a terrible result developing an awesome awesome reliever even if a bit disappointing, but man, you have to have a little more faith in 22 year olds that are incredibly tough to hit in AAA, imo.
BB/9, both age 22 in AA: Hunter Brown 5.29 Miguel Ullola 5.16 Ullola is walking too many guys in AAA right now but that’s why he’s not a Top 100 prospect like Brown was (yet).
I think I’m right and the industry is wrong- and I said the same thing about all these Astros guys as they came up in that situation with Brown, Arrighetti (and blubaugh). Nobody is going to hit on 100% but man- the Astros track record on these guys is so good I can’t imagine any astros fan selling on the idea that we are going to graduate really good pitchers by the time you can see them working at 22/23/24 years old in the upper minors.
Trajectory watch: position player prospects with May OPS 100 pts greater than April: Jesus Bastidas Luis Castro Tommy Sacco Kenedy Corona John Garcia Bryan Lavastida Ryan Wrobleski Austin Deming Zach Cole Walker Janek Cristian Gonzalez Chase Jaworsky Oliver Carrillo Kenni Gomez Carlos Cauro Caden Powell Drew Brutcher Cesar Hernandez Esmil Valencia
3 things I will be watching closely on Houston’s farm over the month of June: Jacob Melton: It’s been a small sample and inconsistent playing time due to injuries, but the returns on Melton this season a very strong. He is putting up elite metrics thru 55 pa and if it continues thru ~150 pa, he should start to be viewed as a truly elite prospect. For the time being, he is on my untouchable list. Lowkey breakouts of high ceiling prospects: Kenedy Corona, Kenni Gomez, Alberto Hernandez, Zach Cole. All of these guys have had issues this season and before, but they have all looked pretty good in May and could be turning a corner. I have more optimism about Corona, Gomez, and Hernandez than I do Cole. I expect a big June from Corona and Gomez. Promotions. We should see some meaningful promotions sometime in the next 2-3 weeks. If Joseph Sullivan, Walker Janek, Alejandro Nunez, Lucas Spence, or Will Bush get up to AA and have success over 150+ pa, they will be in a position to really jump up into the tier of prospects that are viewed as potential cornerstone pieces. Shay Whitcomb could get a shot as Houston’s everyday 2B. Cesar Hernandez, Caden Powell, and Drew Brutcher all should be ready for High A (although we won’t really know much about them until they get to AA). All of those potential moves should serve to bolster the incredibly weak AA lineup and sift out some of the non-prospects. On the pitching side, I’m ready to see what Alimber Santa can do in AAA. Not necessarily promotions, but several key guys should return from injury in Luis Baez, Ethan Pecko, and Pedro Leon.
Hector Salas needs to be in Fayetteville. 16 walks to 8 strikeouts in any league shows mastery of said league
Hopeful roster moves for June: To other teams: McCormick, Rodgers To Houston: Yordan, Whitcomb To Sugar Land: Leon, Lavastida, Jordan To Corpus: Bush, Sullivan, Nunez, Spence To Asheville: Brutcher, C Hernandez, Powell To Fayetteville: Salas, Ramirez, Huezo
I mean- I'm pretty sure our real GM agreed with me on all that too (except Blubagh- they don't seem to like him all that much- I sort of expect him to be dealt this trade deadline- especially if Garcia and Javier are back/close finishing up final rehab starts). It would actually be kind of odd if a guy like Keith Law had a better handle on the Astros farm system than some of our more invested fans. Sure- it's his day job but he has 30 teams to cover and our farm system is always the 28th or 30th so probably doesn't spend all that much time on it. I spend less time on paying attention to our farm than many on here, but I feel like I have a pretty good sense of what we have and what we don't for the upper level guys that are knocking on the door and well thought of. Also- less than 1/10000'th of the knowledge of people inside our actual system that do it for a living.
It always seems as if the team is less aggressive about promotions than I expect, especially for the young guys. I wouldn't be surprised if Powell is in Fayetteville until August. Luis Baez got assigned to the FCL team today. It's really weird that he has been active most the season and hasn't played. I don't think I've seen anything saying he's been injured.
7% swinging strike rate is kind of ridiculous. But he also has a 20% called strike rate, so he’s watching a lot of strikes go by. My take is he’s extremely passive at the plate, which is fine while he’s in the complex leagues and guys can’t consistently throw strikes, and he’s hitting a fair amount of doubles (SSS). But that approach won’t fly in the upper levels. He’s already 21 so he needs to be tested in full season ball soon.
Yep. Sullivan is the main one I want to see move up, as he’s pretty clearly ready and he’s the one with the most to gain. Success in AA would let him end the season as a top prospect and a guy the front office will probably view as a longer piece alongside Smith, Dezenzo, Matthews, and Melton.
