Haha well whether it’s tempering or not depends on what your expectation of those 2 guys was to start with. For Leon I think most of us expect him to be nothing more than a AAAA guy or strikeout prone 4th OF which aligns with the value expectations for guys from the stat filter I referenced (except Tucker), and yeah for Leon 12.5% chance of him being a good player is probably shooting high; a Tony Kemp or Max Stassi level career for him would be a great outcome at this point. But I think a few of us (myself included) have hopes for more from Whitcomb, so for me seeing that guys who’ve done what he’s done in AAA didn’t typically amount to much was tempering.
For Sullivan we won’t know much of anything until he gets to AA. So far I have been disappointed at how high his k rate has been and pleasantly surprised at his walk rate and power. Given he was touted as having a good hit tool I thought he’d strikeout less than 25% of the time in High A.
Brito struck out every hitter his first time through the lineup. The only one who didn't strike out swinging took 3 straight strikes looking. Ironically, the only start he went deep enough to earn a win, he takes a loss. The highlights posted here have seemed to feature quite a few whiffs on change ups, which has been considered a below average offering, so that's a development worth tracking. He only had 53 innings last year, I wonder what a reasonable workload for him this year is.
We are on the same page. I did not expect a lot or strikeouts - but I also did not expect any real power. I thought he was going to at best be a Robbie Grossman type big leaguer. I wonder if he has traded contact for power. If he hits in AA and his strikeout rate doesn't increase, I will be impressed. The last guys with similar internal discussions were Meyers and McCormick. While they have both been frustrating at times, they also both have contributed.
I'm encouraged by the fact that he's not whiffing at an elevated rate. His 10% swinging strike rate is usually more in line with a low 20s K%, but his approach appears so passive that half of his at bats end without the ball in play. It's obviously working so far for him, but I wonder how it's going to translate against pitchers who throw more strikes.
Brito is probably the only player (outside of maybe Kevin Alvarez) that I would have off-limits in trade talks. He looks like he could be an absolute beast. My guess is he can go 80-100 innings this year.
I just don't think 2 fWAR in a season is that easy of a bar. The guys who can really hit and/or play great defense tend to eclipse 2 fWAR. I just don't see Whitcomb's defense being good enough to play him every day on the grass and the bat isn't good enough for a corner OF spot. Granted, the Astros have Paredes at 3B who isn't going anywhere and Whitcomb hasn't forced his way to starting at 2B kind of makes me jaded.
It’s really telling to me that the Astros haven’t played Whitcomb a single inning at 2B in AAA this season. But then there’s this: OF with >900 ops in AAA for Houston in multiple seasons (min 150pa), 2006 to present: Kyle Tucker Shay Whitcomb Jake Meyers Derek Fisher
Joseph Sullivan has some really weird numbers. An average player gets 4 at bats a game. Joseph Sullivan is striking out 1.5 times a game and he is walking over 1 times a game. That means he is basically getting 1.5 actual plate appearances a game. On top of that he is stealing a base every other game - playing centerfield. He has an OPS over 900 but an average barely over 200.
So a kid that may not have been old enough to drink, Shay, a defensive specialist, and a guy that didn't hit well enough to be a corner OF that was out of the majors by the time he was 27.
The Astros just don't believe in Whitcomb's glove. Dana Brown in on video chuckling when someone asked if he would play the infield in the big leagues.
If he actually can be an 800 ops guy as the big end of the platoon with good glove and baserunning that’s a far better outcome than I’d ever hoped for from him.
I think Brown needs to worry about his own ass when evaluating position players. Right now his track record isn't very good. 2 drafts and very little to show for it on the batter side. Matthews is at the top of the list pretty much by default and isn't showing much. His other 1st rnd pick is profiling as a bu defensive catcher.
Well in 2024 he had splits of 800/600,,, 850/630 in 2023. I just really question whether he is going to be able to at least start his big league career as anything other than a strong side platoon with an OPS of like .625 against lefties in the upper minors. He turns 25 years old this season - it is about time for him to sink or swim. A lot of this issue has been injuries... but with his glove, his ability to steal bases, athleticism and power against righties - he should be really close to getting a shot to see what he can do. On a side note - that middle infielder in A+ from Cuba for the Astros is starting to get attention as a possible fast mover
Everyone is in action early today... Miguel Ullola gets the start for Sugar Land, while Bryce Mayer and Luis Rodriguez are on the mound for Asheville and Fayetteville, respectively. Corpus Christi's game will start just after noon.
Interesting about Nunez. Hes hitting really well for Asheville as a 20 year old, which is a great sign. Hes already matched last season’s HR total in 79 fewer games. Pretty much any middle infielder who has success in AA at age 20 projects to have some type of major league value, so if Nunez is promoted soon he will have an opportunity to really vault on to the map. For now, my expectations are low because he still seems to have the same swing and miss he did last season when he struck out a lot more. But AA rarely lies for guys under 25 so if he hits there I will be excited.
Kenni Gomez and Esmil Valencia are both hitting a lot better in May than they did in April. Worth watching since both guys are young for their levels, so improvement from them could be dramatic and sustainable and point to a potential breakout.
