2025 NBA Draft Lottery Thread (Rockets get #10 Pick)

Yeah in a "redraft", Castle goes over Sheppard - but that can change if Sheppard has a strong season in 2025.

 

I know it's verbose but I couldn't / wouldn't help myself.

(Apologies if "pw" is spelled with a hyphen.)

 

Out of curiosity who would you have taken instead of Green? I know people wanted Mobley but I remember his dad flat out refusing his son being on the Rockets because of KPJ.

Who would you have taken instead of Bari from his draft class? I feel like he was the consensus BPA at the time. In hindsight everyone would take J-Dub but he was far off the radar.

 

I think you’ve got to include Mathurin too.

 

Yep. I will add that only 12 teams* control their own pick completely in 2027 with 2 season to go and only 20 teams* still own their picks outright for 2029 with 4 seasons still. I don't think there are going to be as many tanking teams in 2027 and 2029 as there were this season as a lot of the bad teams won't have their own pick.

*several of these teams have swaps with teams that will likely be worse than them.

Caveat: I did a rough count. I think those numbers are right, but could be off one way or another.

 

No one other than the lottery team reps, accounting firms, media members, etc.

 

I feel Mathurin has to join another team to become a full time starter.

 

Personally, I would only trade Jalen right now in a package for Booker / Jaylen Brown with a big picks package. Giannis obviously would need a bigger name than Jalen as the highlight of the offering.

I think Green will have an improved more consistent year but I think the Rockets should take a step back if they can't get Booker/Brown/Giannis and let FVV go. I don't think FVV makes other guards better, he just makes the team as a whole better, which has a ceiling with Brooks/FVV eating 65-70 MPG. These two are temporary crutches and won't lead to a championship in Houston. Rockets should focus on increasing the value of every young asset on this team to rehabilitate everyone not named Sengun or Amen.

Next move would be to find a partner for Brooks. I believe that the Rockets as constructed peaked last year with Brooks and FVV in their starting lineup and they need to really see what the young guys can do over 82 games if they can't make a home run swing.

Reed
Jalen/Whitmore
Amen
Bari/Tari
Sengun

and whoever they draft at #10 or wherever they may land (trade up/trade down/ trade out) can get sparse minutes. Additionally, whoever Brooks is traded for will fill in the rotation. I think a stretch big or a shooting back court player would be nice. Austin Reaves would be a nice target. Maybe Brooks + Pick #10 gets him.

Ime loves an 8 man rotation, there's an 7 man rotation with balance of shooters/self creators/ defenders.

 

min not trying to say I know better than our GM. I don’t have the experience or access to the information they do. I know I would not have let KPJ be the reason Mobley wouldn’t work out for us. And I know there were a lot of talented players in that draft. I think we got it wrong with Jalen, and when you swing and miss you have to acknowledge that and try to rectify the situation. We’ve just basically been living with the Jalen mistake and then we extended him. We lived with the KPJ mistake and extended him. We lived with the Wood mistake and moved off him too late. I’d like to see us be more proactive rectifying mistakes. We all make mistakes but I don’t like living with them if there are other pathways forward.

On Bari no doubt he was the consensus pick. But we clearly got played and were not ready for the Bari scenario. It’s fine that everyone misevaluated him, it happens. I still think he develops into a good player but certainly not worthy of #3.

I was just pointing out that we haven’t hit on our two best picks of the last 4 yrs. It doesn’t mean our drafts are bad, but I think that’s part of the over all picture and people seem to think the draft is our strong suit. It’s been more mixed in my opinion, but certainly positive overall. We’ll see about Reed and Cam.

 

A gift from heaven and if he can slide in as a 2 as well, Jalen is gone.

 

Man, you are deeply in the cult.

 

Also on youtube, the actual drawing.

 

Nembhard would be taken ahead of him for sure as well. Hell, I'd have taken Eason over him.

 

I'm fine with the taking the best talent and fixing with trades later. I don't expect picks to be perfect such that it is hard to predict what one will need when the picks that hit are in their prime. For instance, I don't think trying to select for fit would apply to Green as he was the first, and Sengun was too good for fit to matter. JSJ and Tari fit a lot of groups so poor fit isn't a problem for them. The first time Stone really could have tried for fit was he could have traded down from Amen to get guys that would fit better with Jalen and Sengun. I'm glad Stone didn't trade down.

As it is now, the Rockets best young players are Sengun and Amen. I think both in hindsight were the best picks for their spot even if fit for the future is questionable.

On Spurs, their team sucks without Wemby and have fit issues (Sochan and Castle can't play together). OKC has been accumulating picks for a long time and currently look better than any other team at the combination of acquiring picks and drafting with them. Houston may not be second, but they have been in the next tier since Stone has been GM.

 

Getting the high picks and drafting the right players with the picks are two different but related things. You don't always get the right players at the positions you are drafting. We all know that the draft is not an exact science. A lot of it is luck. No GM has a perfect record of always pick the right guy. There are plenty of busts in the high picks and there are plenty of gems in the low picks. BUT the higher you pick, the higher probability you have in drafting better players. It has been shown in the historical data.

So there are two layers of luck involved. First, the chance of getting a high pick through the lottery. Second, the chances of getting the right player at your draft position. It's basically a game of probability, just like any gambling is.

I don't agree that Bari would not be a top 7 pick in a re-draft. Can you list 7 players in that draft that are clearly better than him?

 

I like Brown on this current roster, especially if he can score 25 for us.

 

Brown shot 32% from 3 this year and 30% from 3 so far in the playoffs. He is a super max player. If we are going for a blockbuster trade with a team with cap problems it’s Maxey or Giannis. I love the Maxey fit on this team more than Giannis. If we could get Maxey for Jalen, Dillon, and frp’s we would be set after we get rid of FVV. Under this scenario we should just let him walk.
Amen
Maxey
Tari
Jabari
Sengun

If we could save 1 frp and get John Collins our starting unit would be
Amen
Maxey
Jabari
Collins
Sengun.

We would still have our MLE to go after Grimes or another depth piece.

 

Tatum might be out for next season. I say we give the Celtics a call and see what it takes to get him.

 

Especially since Maxey is the original Rockets killer.

It's an idea but Brown honestly isn't worth that contract. He's taller than our starting SG, a better finisher, but got-damn!, that $$$.

 

I disagree when it comes to fit. For example, I wanted Mobley or Barnes over Green in part because they could play multiple positions and roles. Green was pigeonholed as a shooting guard and had to score at a high rate to be successful, and Green was smallish as well.

When a player is clearly superior I understand taking them - but when they are comparable, like the Green draft, I think you consider fit and versatility.