As I have pointed out, if you think Brown is worth $38M per year that is a good contract. If you think he is worth less than that, you are overpaying. And I have you the math to show why.
If he keeps dominating like this he probably busts 20 million in year 3 of arbitration alone. Probably gets 12-15 in year 2. If he keeps dominating, he’s probably worth 40 million once he hits the FA market. Astros could be paying him 25 for 3 seasons instead.
Yordan was 6/116. Pitchers never get as many years or as much money as position players bc of the inherent injury risk.
That’s not how it works. I told you. ID showed you the math. There is zero world where any team would make that offer.
4th straight season of decline? He had a .789 OPS in 2023 so that’s false. Outside of 2020, which was a weird year for all, he had been a consistent hitter until last season. Given how many hitters have gone to Seattle and struggled, that shouldn’t have been a huge deterrent. He also started showing life at the end of last season. I said this several months back on here so this isn’t me saying this after the fact - I wanted Polanco back in January. We desperately needed a lefty bat and he fit a position of need.
No pitcher has ever gotten more than $13MM in any year of arbitration in MLB history. $5 / $10 /$15 would be pretty impressive and record-breaking and would still net $30MM over 3 years.
Sorry - I was looking at WAR for that stat, but you're right by OPS which is a better measure for his hitting. ESPN has his WAR at 4.8, 2.8, 2.1, and 1.4 from 2021-2024.
Fair point. I didn’t realize that. I know a position player just got 20 in arbitration. That may change things a tad but not much. I would still bet the Astros offer is closer to 6-150 than 6-120, if they offer before next season.
In arbitration, I guess pitchers get less. In FA they don’t. Look at G. Cole contract from 6 years ago.
Skubal is two years ahead of Brown and is probably the best comparison point if Brown sustains. Skubal got $2.5MM in year 1 and $10.5MM in year 2. If he keeps his performance up, he'll break the $13MM record from Cole and Fried next year so that'll give a good comparison point.
The highest arbitration salaries I have been able to find for a SP: Arb 1: Dallas Keuchel $7.25M Arb 2: Jake Arrietta $10.7M Arb 3: Jake Arrietta $15.6375 = $33.5875M Figure the 3 arb seasons at $35M then whatever you think he is worth per year × the number of FA years you want to buybout.
Interesting! My googling for some reason didn't include Arrietta's results: Highest MLB Arbitration Salaries | AP News
So 6-150 might be a bit of a bargain according to your numbers because he will probably get minimum 40 million when he hits FA in 3 years, if he stays this dominant. If the Astros offer 6-120 after this season, I could see him turning it down. 6-150 is cooking with gas. Maybe 140 gets it done.
Ah - I see the issue. Jake (and others like Framber who signed for $18MM this year) avoided arbitration - so these were negotiated 1-yr contracts. The numbers I had - $13MM for Cole and Fried - were the highest awarded by an actual arbitrator.
