Framber to a NL team that can make a W S. run but needs SP for 1 young controllable MLB position player who fills a hole on this Astros team 1 45 or better FV SP prospect (likely 50+ but depends on value of position player) 1 lottery ticket prospect that Dana Brown chooses.
Framber's value right now is not very high. If he pitches like an ace for most of his next ten starts the Astros could pretty much name their price for him. If he does pitch like an ace for most of his next ten starts the Astros will probably be in contention at the break and be unwilling to trade him. Today I doubt that many teams would even be willing to talk about him including the Astros.
I understand you, but I think you are too far down on his current value. It probably doesn't matter, because there is still a floor that the Astros have set and his value may be below that floor. Bur he absolutely has value and almost every contender woukd want him. Let's say scale 1-10 His value to the Astros is a 9 and Astros won't even consiser any return less than an 8. Teams look at him as a 7. He has still averaged 6 IP going less than 5 only once in 8 while giving up 2 or fewer ER in 5 of them. This year he has pitched like a very solid #3 starter and his history and projections still prop up his value. You are right, though the better he pitches the next 2 1/2 months the more value he likely has to the Astros even as his trade value rises. If he gets to the point where teams are willing to pay a ln 8 or 9 in value, he likely becomes a 9 or a 10 to the Astros. The most likely scenario where he gets traded is he continues to pitch at the level he has, but the Astros fall out of the race and his value to them falls down to that 7 teams were hoping for. Then Framber brings back a package similar to the Kikuchi deal - but maybe one of the prospects is higher end. A top 50-100 then 2 guys in an organization's top 20.
Can I ask why? If you take away the prospect hype, neither has shown signs of success at the MLB level. Arrighetti, on the other hand, never had prospect hype, but has clearly demonstrated the ability to succeed on the parent club. Probably just the homer in me, but I think Arrighetti might follow the Hunter Brown (lite) path. He certainly seems to possess the strikeout capability.
For me, a lot of it is the roster and the organization. Arrighetti has shown the ability to be a good #3 starter and that's important and valuable. But many scouts see that as near his ceiling. This organization currently has half a dozen other starters who are likely to be able to fill the #3 spot in the rotation. What this organization does not have is enough young controllable position players who have the ceiling to be productive ML. players for the next 5-6 years. Rotation A: Brown, Javier, McCullers, Blanco, Wesneski, Blubaugh, Gusto Rotation B: Brown, Javier, McCullers, Blanco, Arrighetti, Wesneski, Blubaugh. How many fewer wins does rotation B have over 162 games? Now, how many could a good young position player add?
Seems to me that Javier and McCullers are huge question marks. I think we should try to avoid trading Arrighetti if at all possible. It looks to me that both Dezenzo and Cam Smith are going to be good major league starters. We just need one of our minor leaguers to step up and we have an 8 deep lineup at worst. Altuve is a real issue if he has hit the wall, because he can never be benched and Alvarez is a DH only player. Pitching is going to have to carry us for the next several years, I’d hang onto as much as we can and hope we get one more position player from the minors.
A Framber hypothetical for each NL team with legit playoff aspirations: Phillies: IF Aiden Miller and a PTBNL Mets: IF/OF Jett Williams, IF Ronny Mauricio, and IF Trey Snyder Braves: P Cam Caminiti, IF Jose Perdomo, and P Ethan Bagwell Cubs: IF James Triantos, IF Jefferson Rojas, P Nazier Mule Dodgers: SS Kellon Lindsey and SS Emil Morales Giants: IF Jhonny Level, OF Dakota Jordan, and IF Walker Martin Padres: IF Cobb Hightower, OF Kavares Tears and IF Cale Fountain D-Backs: OF Druw Jones, IF Tommy Troy, IF LuJames Groover
D-Backs promoted Jordan Lawler but really don’t have anywhere to play him. Pavin Smith seems like he might be a good trade target for the Astros. If they want to replace Gurriel then McCormick might be a match, although Houston would have to add to that (with maybe somebody like Bennett Sousa and a PTBNL). Otherwise, a couple of decent pitching prospects (maybe Jose Fleury and Forrest Whitley) would probably do it. Smith is a fit due to his lefthanded bat, but he is best in RF or 1B. But he could be used across 1B, RF, LF, and DH to give guys rest and balance the lineup.
This isn't really the way it works. Teams don't make decisions on small sample sizes. If Framber is made available, there will be a very robust market for him - lessened some what by his contract status - but make no mistake; teams will want him. We'll see if they meet the Astros' asking price. And that's before we even know who else might be available - Framber could be highly-coveted.
Yep. The Astros gave up 3 of their top 15 prospects (2 of which were in their top 10) for a rental SP who was 0-4 with a 7.75 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in his last eight starts prior to the trade. As long as Framber is healthy, he will have at least that much value.
I actually was in an argument with someone on another site (whose not a mouth breathing idiot) who absolutely contended that there was no way Framber would fetch a prospect package better than the lousy draft pick we'd get for him declining the QO. It's weird man.
I mean... he started - and won! - game 6 of the '22 World Series. He finished top 10 in CY voting in '23 and '24. He's not young - but he's by no means old. No team is going to throw out that resume because of ~15 starts in 2025. And even then... his ERA (I'm not deep-diving here) is 1.37 in 6/8 starts this season. So to make the point more clear: they're not going to throw out that resume because of the ~2 starts. The contract makes him less valuable - but quality pitchers fetch a premium at the deadline, and Framber could very well be the best SP made available at the deadline since... Scherzer in '21?
Scherzer would be a good comp but it’s hard to compare the return because he was traded with Turner and Scherzer also had some injury concerns; that trade included 2 MLB Top 30 level prospects plus 2 interesting 3rd tier prospects.. Either way I think it’s safe to say that if Houston trades Framber, the return will be substantial and very likely be built around an elite prospect/young player on par with Cam Smith.
