Caratini makes $6M. Caratini's contract is up at the end of this season. The Astros can't lose him after this season for nothing as the Astros don't own him. The contract is up. If they want more from Caratini after this season, they will need to pay for it. Caratini will more than adequately given the Astros more than they are currently paying him. Considering the Astros will likely be better in 2025 than in 2028-2030, the Astros should value 2025 more than 2028-2030. As such, trading a guy producing more than his paycheck (even in a limited role) in 2025 likely does not improve the Astros when the Astros are good as most MLB trades are current value for value a couple of years down the road or more.
Yep, labeling any player who is outperforming their contract as “a waste of payroll” is silly. Caratini has made good, the Astros are lucky to have him, and if they end up making the playoffs, Caratini will have been a meaningful reason why. Obviously if they’re out of contention they’ll shop him to cash in on his value, but either way he’s been a very good use of that $6M.
The Astros don't match ip well, with the Phillies at all, but it sure looks like Bryson Stott would fit onto this roster very nicely. They need a backup catcher badly, but have plenty of good SP and the Astros don't want to take on salary so taking Castellanos or Walker back doesn't look like a fit.
I would like to see an extension of Caratini for another couple of years this winter. He is good insurance to hold on to.
This doesn't happen often. If it does, I'm fine with it. I get that rare things happen. I just don't think they should be planned. More effort should be spent on things that are likelier to happen.
This is all well and good. And thank you for the trip to school. But I completely disagree 1) Caratini is on pace for less than 250 PAs and a hair less than 1 bWAR. Sure, there's nothing wrong with that but it's hardly great production for $6M. 2) Why pay a guy $6M to sit the bench 2/3 of the time when you are at or near your payroll budget, all jus positions have everyday starters, and the team has serious holes elsewhere? It's like driving 10 miles out of your way every morning to drop your wife off at work because both of your cars are stick which she can't/won't drive. Trade it in for a friggin' automatic 2015 Toyota Camry.
I do not trust Diaz and I trust Walker even less. Until those positions are well in hand Caratini is cheep surety.
Yeah - there is a lot of interest in Arrighetti around the league. Unless Murphy/Miller believe Arrighetti is going to become a #1/2 starter, I think you package him and Dezenzo for a second baseman under multiple years of team control. Maybe you try to package Arrighetti and Dezenzo or another similar player for Brandon Lowe and Pete Fairbanks, or maybe go for the throat and get Yandy Diaz and Brandon Lowe. That means a rotation with Diaz and Walker and 1st and Diaz and Alvarez at DH - but it extends the offense two spots. Maybe you get Bo Bichette from the Jays for a low cost and move him to second base - and see if a change of scenery makes a difference. Brendan Donovan makes the most sense - and the Cardinals did want Arrighetti only a few months ago. The Cardinals may actually be able to peel away the pitching they want from the Astros - Arrighetti and one of the top guys in the minors, on top of Dezenzo. The Astros could have real use for Donovan, Noothbar and Fedde .... that would literally fill the Astros needs, and facilitate move Framber if they go that route.
Ok. I get not trusting them. But unless they are hurt, they will still be in the lineup while Caratini is on the bench.
Arrighetti, Ullola, and Dezenzo for Donovan, Nootbaar, and Fedde seems like a great trade for Houston. Adds 2 really good LH bats to make the lineup potentially 9 deep. Adds a decent veteran SP who opens the door to use Framber to repair the farm. Clears the playing time logjam (McCormick would almost certainly need to be gone in this scenario). I would love this trade for the Astros but would be surprised if the Cardinals went for it.
If they liked those guys as much as I do they would do it. Throw in Melton and that probably is enough, right? I mean, I don't love Melton but he's got probably more value than Dezenzo even though I trust ZD more to hit. Then- Framber for Prospects. SP- Brown, LMJ, Fedde, Wesneski, Blanco- Lineup- Diaz, Walker, Donovan, Pena, Paredes, Altuve, Nootbaar, Smith, Yordan Bench- Meyers, Dubon, Caratini, + (Matthews? Whitcomb?) You better hope come playoff time that you have Javier and/or Garcia healthy and LMJ stays healthy or your rotation is seriously deficient in playoff quality- even if it is deep enough in average type guys to be fine in the regular season. It could literally be Hunter Brown and then bullpenning opening every other game in there series. The thing is- the Stros do have enough depth of qualify arms that it could work.
This playoff roster would be absolutely sick imho: SS Pena LF Altuve DH Alvarez 3B Paredes CF Nootbaar 1B Walker 2B Donovan C Diaz RF Smith Bench: Dubon, Meyers, Caratini, Salazar SP: Brown, McCullers, Fedde, TBD (Javier, Garcia, Blanco, Gusto, Blubaugh, Wesneski) RP: Hader, Abreu, King, Okert, TBDx5 (Javier, Garcia, Blanco, Gusto, Blubaugh, Wesneski, VanWey, Sousa, Whitley, Ort, Dubin) An absolutely stud 1-9 lineup with stud defensive replacements and balance on the bench. A clear ace, a #2 with proven playoff chops, a high floor vet #3, and enough depth that there’s likely to be a super hot hand to play as the #4. A stacked bullpen with balance and high octane playoff caliber stuff and again enough depth that there’s very likely to be hot hands to ride in the playoffs. A farm that now has top end position player depth in Melton, Matthews, Janek, a new 2025 1st round pick, and 2 elite prospects they get for Framber, along with the already stacked pitching depth. These moves hinge on being confident that one or two of those 6-7 BoR SP will be bonafide Game 3/4 starters by seasons end, but that’s a bet I’m more than willing to make to secure what would be the deepest lineup in franchise history (although not necessarily the best). What’s even crazier is that Caratini and Fedde would be the only pending free agents on that roster. If this trade is anywhere close to possible, Brown needs to get it done. FWIW, if I were the Cards GM, I would demand Dezenzo, Blubaugh, Arrighetti, Melton, and Matthews in exchange for Donovan, Nootbaar, and Fedde, but I’d be willing to eat some of the outgoing money.
Luhnow was really good at targeting these kinds of players. Not stars but really good glue guys that provide things the current team is missing. Luis Rengifo type guys.
The trade would fill two medium term holes for the Astros with Donovan and Nootbaar. Fedde is a free agent at the end of the year and is just an innings eater. As for the Cardinals, they were offering other pieces with Arenado in an attempt to pry away young pitching for the Astros. I think a lot of it hinges on how the Cardinals view Arrighetti and the stable of young arms the Astros have. If I were Brown - I would be interested. Donovan and Nootbaar are under team control through the 2027 season like Pena, Walker and Paredes. Donovan and Nootbaar both are very consistent and have an OPS of .750-.800. Donovan can slide into second and Nootbaar can play CF or a corner spot. Fedde will give the Astros innings for the remainder of this season. Donovan Altuve Alvarez Paredes Walker Diaz Noothbaar Pena Smith/Meyers While there is only 1-2 "stars" in this line up, they are very deep - and if they drop Altuve down in the line up and move Nootbaar into the 2 hole, they have a lot of contact at the top of the line up. It also buys time for the Astros farm system to get some guys ready......
The Cards were offering one of Donovan or Nootbaar only a few months ago - if the Astros are offering more, than a deal should be feasible unless the Cards were that adamant that the deal hinge on Arenado and I don't think that is the case because it was the Cards that kept trying to expand the deal. As for Matthews being involved - I know Brown thinks there is a decent chance he can be a star -- but I think it isn't that far fetched that he could be moved if the Cards through in a prospect that the Astros wanted or someone like Gorman or Walker.
I’d want to hang onto Matthews. Maybe whitcomb instead of him? I guess if money was right coming back for melton that would be ok. Donovan and Nut are both have 3 years counting this one of club control left, right? That would have your competitive window open through 2027 and then you’d be looking at trading Hunter Brown, Yordan, Hader and Diaz in their walk years if you didn’t have a whole lot else developed from the farm by then and doing a total rebuild. With what you develop on the farm and even with all those guys in their walk year you should be able to get 3 top 50 prospects and 3 more top 100 type guys for those. Which is a pretty good jump on a rebuild I guess. Draft pick for Pena when he leaves after 2027 too- so call it 7 quality prospects plus whatever you accumulate between here and there in draft, development and a Framber deal. That means 2028 will be pretty bad (but maybe exciting) but you will be picking high. Same for 2029 probably but by 30 you ought to be ready to go on another nice run.
Post Fantasy-trade control timelines: 2025: Caratini, Fedde 2026: Dubon, McCormick, Garcia, McCullers, Abreu, Okert 2027: Walker, Pena, Paredes, Meyers, Donovan, Nootbaar, Javier 2028: Diaz, Yordan, Brown, Hader 2029: Altuve, Blanco 2030+: Smith, Wesneski, Gusto, Whitley, King, Ort, etc. So the roster would be stacked thru 2027, and 2028 would be the new inflection year where you either call up a bunch of stud prospects or sell off Yainer, Yordan, Brown, and Hader to hasten the rebuild. Post-2027 you’d likely have QO’s for Pena, Nootbaar, Paredes, and Donovan. So yeah between the 2028 draft (where’d they’d have 6-8 of the top 150 picks) and the 2028 trade deadline (where they’d add 3 Top 50 + 3 Top 100), they’d go into 2029 with a top 3 farm and 100% clear payroll outside of Altuve’s last year.
Keep in mind Altuve's last year in 2029 he only makes like 10M, so even that is completely and totally inconsequential. I think to be a playoff caliber team in 2029 after a reset in 2028 they'd have to basically hit on 10 or 12 guys being good player in the propects targeted with 2 of them being stars. They would basically have 4 drafts, 4 or 5 comp picks plus trades of Framber, Yordan , Diaz, Brown and Hader (all in their walk years). If you didn't hit on all 8/10/12 guys between here and there with all those trades you probably look to trade Smith as well (if you haven't signed him for life) with 3 years left and if he's all star good that should get you 3 or 4 really qualify prospects. Think half way point between first Juan Soto trade and Kyle Tucker trade as far as return goes. He wouldn't likely be as good as either of those guys but he'd have 3 years left while they had 2 and 1 respectively. The more I think about this the more I'm absolutely convinced they should do it even if you have to give up Matthews, who, other than Arrighetti and blubaugh would be the guy that hurts the most. And I like all of those guys other than Melton.
The going rate for WAR is over $6M/1 WAR. If you spend $6M on a full time player, you would likely get about 0.6 WAR on average. You might get lucky and get 1.5 WAR, but it is more likely you get a truly negative player. I prefer fWAR and Caratini projects to be about 1.5 WAR. On your metaphor, it is more like trading in both cars for tires to a 2015 Camry because both cars were junkers that worked. Both the husband and wife now have to walk to work. For me, I assume guys will get hurt and/or suck such that I'd rather keep the better player than a piecemeal MLB full time player. Use minor leaguers to trade for fillers. Caratini isn't bringing back a star in a trade. More likely, he's bringing back a Dubon-level player. Maybe a little better.
