I might have heard from someone who knows some stuff that Crane isn’t opposed to trading Framber if the value is right. Just file that away for later.
Yes. According to Cots Contracts, the Astros are about $5.3M under the CBT For the full season of 2025, Donovan is making $2.8M There is zero chance any current Astros minor leaguers are as good as Donovan in 2025.
I like his ability to get on base and not k, but you'll never convince me that a player that gets 10-15 HRs a season, who can't run, moves the needle for a team? Especially if we have to give up talent for him. Players like him are excellent to have when they come up through your own farm system, not when you have to throw players at to get.
The problem is that the team is in win now mode and has nobody in their system. Your thoughts ate perfectly valid when those 2 factors don't exist. When they do, and you must bite the bullet and make the deal. And HR become significantly less important when a guy is going to give you 50+ extra base hits and is strong where your team is weak. You are under valuing Donovan to this specific team - extremely right handed heavy, with few, if any, guys who get on base 35%+ and a big hole at 2b.
No way Crane sells right now. If he does, he will wait until the entertainment district maximizes the value.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/05/mets-interested-in-left-handed-bullpen-help.html Mets get: RP Bennett Sousa Astros get: IF Colin Houck
The Astros are rebuilding in 3 years with or without that trade. That trade is designed to make the dark years darker, and the good years brighter. winning 55 wins in a season versus 60 wins does not matter much to me. 88 wins to 93 wins is huge. I don't think either team would do that trade because it is just too much quantity for too much quality. 2.5 years of Donovan is a lot of value, and I don't think the Astros have much value on the farm after 3-4 guys.
I don’t think it’s at all a certainty that Houston will be rebuilding in 3 years. The Astros’ contracts for their good (3+ fwar/yr) players are pretty perfectly staggered: 2025: Framber 2026: none 2027: Pena, Paredes 2028: Yordan, Brown 2029: Altuve (not likely to be a good player by then) It’s possible that by next season the Astros won’t have a single underwater contract. If ownership continues to maintain a top 8 payroll, there’s no reason this team can’t be a 90+ win team thru the end of the decade. This team is a team-friendly Paredes or Pena extension away from being in great shape.
This is true - just like Tucker, but the cost is high. The Astros listened to offers this Winter but no one ponied up.
Right. I’d heard this after the start of the season. Like, yeah let’s keep our ears open all the way to the deadline regardless. The price is the price and I don’t think the astros position in the standings is determinative of if he gets sold.
If I understand what you are saying here, I don't agree. I think it will be really hard for the Astros to trade Framber if there continues to be a very good chance they make the post season ( Baseball Reference has them at 90.6% and Fangraphs has them at 58.6% currently). Obviously McCullers and Arrighetti returning healthy and pitching up to potential would also impact that as well as how many other SP stay healthy throughout the year. I just don't see the Astros doing anything that hurts the World Series chances once mid-season gets here if they still have those odds. If they falter and are worse than last year, then they need to trade him even if the return is weak.
I can envision a scenario where the market breaks just right and Houston adds a controllable ace (Alcantara?) which opens the door for trading Framber. Or I could also see the market overwhelming the Astros to trade Framber and they just pivot to a lesser rental (Heaney?) for a minimal net loss on 2025 odds with substantial increases in odds for 2026 and beyond. I’m assuming the return they’re looking for in a Framber trade is at least one Cam Smith level prospect (MLB Top50), plus one really good piece (maybe not a Paredes-level MLB player, but a legitimate big leaguer or top prospect), plus an interesting (Juan Bello style) throw-in. I would also bet HEAVILY that if Houston trades Framber, it will be to an NL team.
If the Astros trade him while still in contention and: They miss the playoffs or underachieve in the playoffs At least 1 starting pitcher underachieves after the trade The rotation has less than impressive starters making important starts Then this team will get roasted by the fans and media. And it will be deserved. And I agree about him going to an NL team. And FTR, I want another W.S. championship and think he would improve that, but would be really excited about any return.
Entertainment district? You not talking about the one we heard about 5-6 years ago when the bars were tore down are ya?
Yes. https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/...ertainment-district-next-to-minute-maid-park/ He's also grooming one of his sons to take over, he's been working in the FO business-side for a few years now. I wouldn't expect a sale anytime soon.
I know we’d never do it, but if guys start coming back healthy and the deadline is super crazy with teams trading lots of value for pitching it sure would be interesting to look into not just trading Framber but maybe offering Hader plus 10M a year or something like that st the deadline. That would send him to another team for like 4 playoff runs at 40M in total contract, it feels like we could get a pretty nice haul for that. My dream 2025 moves: Framber for a 2B/3b/ or CF of the future. Cam smith level prospect that’s absolutely major league ready, plus maybe another back end of top 100 prospect/fringe guy there. Hader plus 40M for a 2B/3B or CF of the future. Chas or Jake (or both) for pitching prospects that the Astros like- we are always pretty good at that. Padres or prospect plays 2B the other one plays 3rd. 25 Roster from trade deadline on Brown, LMJ, Arrighetti, Garcia, Wesneski, Blubaugh, Gusto, Whitley, Javier, Okertt, King, Abreu, Ullola. Traded- Scott, Ort, Hader, Framber, Blanco, Sousa playoff spots: Starter- Brown, LMJ, Arrighetti, Garcia Bridges- Wesneski, Blubaugh 7/8/9- Whitley/Javier/Abreu. Diaz, Walker, trade for prospect type, Pena, Paredes, Altuve, smith, Dezenzo, Yordan Bench- Melton, Caratini, trade piece from Framber or Hader trade, backup short stop. traded- Jake, Chas, Dubon I know this would never happen but it would re-set the org for years and years, save money and add guys that we desperately need to turn the org over. And, I truly believe that the team that rolls into the playoffs that I described would be good enough to have as good a chance as anyone to win the AL.
I don’t think the Astros can trade Hader if they want to compete in the 2025 postseason. I think they’d be better suited to shop Abreu to see if somebody is willing to give up a huge haul for 2 playoff runs from him. This is how I see it: Astros needs: 2B (preferably LHH) 2 elite prospects (preferably infielders) Astros tradeable assets: 1 upside controllable BoR SP (from Gusto, Arrighetti, Blanco, and Wesneski) 1 near-ready 2nd/3rd tier pitching prospect (from Blubaugh, Ullola, Gordon, Fleury) ~$8M 1 fringe-regular OF (from Dezenzo, McCormick, Whitcomb, Melton) 1 upside controllable middle RP (from Whitley, Dubin, Sousa, Scott, Ort) They can trade other assets (Framber, Hader, Abreu) and still contend, but they’d likely be significantly lowering their odds in 2025, so they should require an overwhelming return. I may be overvaluing Houston’s fringey players, but I think they’d can accomplish the goal of improving the 2025 roster while also improving the farm system with the tradable assets I listed. Is it realistic to think that Houston could swap Arrighetti, Dezenzo, Whitley, Fleury, and $8M for Brendan Donovan and 2 recent 1st round picks Dana Brown likes?
