re: link on the side image in both my liberal and conservative sides of my brain made me throw up in my mouth. image in my moderate side was glad everyone was getting along.
An interesting thing has happened in Ohio over the last week and a half. Kerry ads are running about 3 times as much as Bush ads. Talkign to a friend of mine who assisted with the Reagan elections he thinks Ohio is being possibly sacrificed so Bush can take Florida, Wisconsin, Iowa and another Western state (Nevada maybe but not sure what state he mentioned) that Gore won in 2000. Basically the 3 other states combing for the same number of electorial votes as Ohio. Essentially he thinks Bush/Republicans pulled alot of his advertising from Ohio and reinvested in the other states. The campaign may be comign back to Ohio now (don't know how the polls are shaping up in Wisconsin) since kerry and Bush will both be in Columbus, OH on Thursday and Friday (Kerry with B. Springsteen and Bush with the Governator) and it sounds like money is being reallocated back to Ohio for advertising. Again decipher that how you will. Maybe Bush felt confident pulling money from Ohio to pick up another 20 electorial votes plus solidifying Florida, but I'm going to be curious to see what happens here in the Buckeye state.
The key states are Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. Whichever candidate wins two out of the three will win.
Is it true that Kerry is pulling out of Florida right now? Does he think it is unwinnable? Yesterday's Zogby poll has Bush with a 4-pt lead. Someone on another board I read mentioned that Tony Snow reported the pullout. If Bush has Florida, he could lose Ohio and still win the race by winning some combination of Iowa, Wisconsin, Colorado, New Hampshire and/or Hawaii. All I can say is WOW. This is huge. A crippling blow.
Bush can still win if he wins in florida and loses Ohio and Penn. Kerry can't. not saying bush will win, just that he's got more options. kerry has to win two of the big three. interesting watching the national tracking polls on rasmussen and wapo. the later has kerry two points ahead now. rasmussen did earlier in the week, but now it's bush up. all in all, extremely tight. odds favor bush, but kerry winning won't suprise me. i just hope that whoever wins wins decisively, and the losers accept their fate graciously.
Florida Kerry Bush Zogby 47 48 ARG 49 46 RR 48 48 SUSA 50 48 IA 46 46 Mean 48.0 47.2 http://www.mydd.com Tony Snow may want to becareful with who his sources are...all polls show Florida to be well within the margin of litigation.
Exactly what I heard yesterday. Tom's guess was Bush felt it was worth a risk to possibly put ohio more in play (polls in Mid. October had Bush up 3-5%) but to go out and win Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Mexico/Nevada (again I am unsure which state he mentioned out west). Basically those 3 states combined for 20 votes, and Ohio has 21. So Bush's gamble is to secure 20 more votes, even if he loses Ohio he's still slightly up but if he can win those 3 plus Ohio it virtually secures the election. Again all that is premised on Florida where Bush is apparently ahead (whag not sure if your numbers are up to date then Bush does need Ohio)
This is basically what it comes down to. Wisconsin and Iowa are both virtually even at this point, and Colorado is very much in play as well. I expect Bush to take Florida, and Kerry to take Ohio and Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, Bush can very well sweep Iowa, Wisconsin, and Colorado to balance things out.
