I'd rather trade for Booker, get a flyswatter/rebounder cheap, and add an inexpensive rotational ball handler like Brogdon. I was just illustrating how far they COULD go.
Pelton’s 30 best prospects 1. Cooper Flagg, F, Duke Top 100: No. 1 | Stats: No. 1 | Consensus: 5.3 WARP As I wrote in a story with Tim Bontemps about the creative efforts to avoid winning we saw late in the NBA regular season, the question with Flagg is less whether he's the top prospect this year and more where he stacks up historically. Besides the two No. 1 picks with better projections than Flagg (Anthony Davis and Zion Williamson), Luka Doncic is the only other player to rate better in terms of my consensus model. Flagg is the lone player in this year's draft who doesn't rate 15% worse than the average NBA-bound college prospect at his position in any of the categories I use to determine strengths and weaknesses. 2. Kon Knueppel, G/F, Duke Top 100: No. 9 | Stats: No. 2 | Consensus: 3.9 WARP Having Flagg's teammate just behind him is a more surprising outcome. Based strictly on college performance, Knueppel would drop a few spots, more in line with where he ranks in the top 100 (No. 9). However, Knueppel had the strongest projection of any prospect who participated in the Nike EYBL AAU competition in either 2022 or 2023. He posted a .642 true shooting percentage on 35% usage in 2023, suggesting more shot creation potential than we saw alongside other talented prospects at Duke. 3. VJ Edgecombe, SG, Baylor Top 100: No. 4 | Stats: No. 4 | Consensus: 3.9 WARP Along with Flagg, Edgecombe is the second prospect in this year's class who ranks in the top five by both my stats-only model and the top 100, typically a powerful combo. Although Edgecombe's offensive efficiency in his lone season at Baylor was middling (50% shooting on 2s and 34% on 3s), he filled out the box score. Edgecombe projects at least 15% better than the typical NBA-bound college shooting guard in terms of rebound, block and steal rate. That defensive potential should give Edgecombe a high floor, while his development as a shooter will define his upside. 4. Dylan Harper, G, Rutgers Top 100: No. 2 | Stats: No. 7 | Consensus: 3.7 WARP Harper is on the flip side of the comparison with Knueppel. He had a stronger college freshman season, averaging 19.4 PPG, 4.6 RPG and 4.0 APG on fine efficiency given his large role in the Rutgers offense (29% usage rate). Yet Harper wasn't quite as effective in EYBL play, and incorporating those stats flipped Knueppel ahead. In particular, Harper excelled as a college finisher, shooting 57% on 2-point attempts -- best of any perimeter one-and-done prospect. 5. Isaiah Evans, SG, Duke Top 100: No. 43 | Stats: No. 3 | Consensus: 3.0 WARP This projection looks strange to me, too. Evans averaged 13.8 MPG off the bench for the Blue Devils, yet my model is excited about his potential as a shooter. That's got relatively little to do with Evans' 42% 3-point accuracy, since the small sample (149 attempts) means his NBA projection is regressed heavily to the mean. However, the 12 3-point attempts Evans launched per 40 minutes give him the highest shooting projection of any one-and-done player in my database. Given how little Evans contributes beyond shooting, he'll have to be elite to be an NBA rotation player. Ideally, he'll return for a larger role as a sophomore and we'll get more data to use. 6. Jeremiah Fears, PG, Oklahoma Top 100: No. 5 | Stats: No. 20 | Consensus: 2.9 WARP Fears was an offensive engine at Oklahoma. His 31.5% usage was highest for any major-conference freshman, per Stathead.com, just ahead of Flagg. Given that load, Fears' ability to score with average efficiency was impressive. Still, in order to justify a similarly large role in the NBA, Fears will have to improve on 28% 3-point shooting. One encouraging sign: Fears shot 85% on free throws, an important indicator for NBA 3-point accuracy. 7. Ace Bailey, PF, Rutgers Top 100: No. 3 | Stats: No. 27 | Consensus: 2.9 WARP In a year where the top prospects mostly rated well statistically, Bailey was an exception. In particular, Bailey's shotmaking ability did not translate to good efficiency because of his difficult shot diet. Per CBBAnalytics.com, 36% of Bailey's shot attempts were non-paint 2-pointers, ranking in the 99th percentile nationally. And while Bailey hit those at a reasonable 43% clip, that's far less valuable than the effective 52% he shot on 3s after accounting for the additional point. In the right system, Bailey could emerge as an offensive playmaker, but the wrong team might be unable to maximize his skills. 8. Noa Essengue, PF, Ratiopharm Ulm (Germany) Top 100: No. 14 | Stats: No. 8 | Consensus: 2.6 WARP Now that Essengue has moved into lottery territory, it's hard to call him a sleeper, but he's still not quite as high as his stats-only projection would suggest as the top international prospect in the draft. In the competitive EuroCup, Essengue has averaged 14.4 PPG and 5.3 RPG in just 23.7 MPG, shooting 66% on 2-point attempts. That's come against much older competition. Essengue won't turn 19 until December, making him the second-youngest prospect in the top 100 after Flagg. 9. Collin Murray-Boyles, PF, South Carolina Top 100: No. 11 | Stats: No. 14 | Consensus: 2.6 WARP The production from Murray-Boyles in Year 2 at South Carolina was too good for scouts to overlook. In the nation's strongest conference, Murray-Boyles averaged 16.8 PPG and 8.3 RPG with the highest effective field goal percentage (60%) in the SEC. At 6-foot-7, Murray-Boyles is small for a big, but he filled out the box score with seven strengths according to my model -- most of any prospect, just ahead of Flagg's six. (Memphis guard PJ Haggerty, who didn't crack the top 30, also has six strengths but more weaknesses.) 10. Kasparas Jakucionis, PG, Illinois Top 100: No. 7 | Stats: No. 22 | Consensus: 2.6 WARP There's a lot to like about Jakucionis offensively. A tough finisher, he made 56% of his 2s, excellent for a guard. Additionally, Jakucionis' 84.5% accuracy at the foul line suggests he could improve on his 32% 3-point shooting at Illinois to go with his playmaking. The concern lies on defense. Jakucionis has a below-average steal rate for a guard and blocked just nine shots all season. 11. Egor Demin, PG, BYU Top 100: No. 12 | Stats: No. 19 | Consensus: 2.4 WARP Demin's combination of court vision and size (6-foot-9) to create passing lanes gives him the third-best assist projection among prospects in the top 100. Like Jakucionis, Demin was also a strong finisher from the backcourt thanks to his size, hitting 55% of his 2-point attempts. However, there's less reason for optimism about Demin as a shooter. Not only did he make 27% of his 3-point attempts, Demin was a hair under 70% at the foul line. 12. Tre Johnson, SG, Texas Top 100: No. 6 | Stats: No. 30 | Consensus: 2.4 WARP Johnson's volume scoring is the kind of skill set that tends not to fare well in my projections. Usage is his only strength, while Johnson was well below average in terms of rebounding, steals and blocks. The swing skill is just how efficient Johnson can be as a scorer. He faired acceptably at the college level thanks to 40% 3-point shooting but was less effective in EYBL play. Johnson shot just 34% on 3s in the 2023 EYBL campaign. 13. Miles Byrd, SG, San Diego State Top 100: No. 50 | Stats: No. 5 | Consensus: 2.3 WARP My top-rated sleeper who's outside the first round of the top 100, Byrd rates well because of his rare combination of steal and block rates. Over the past decade, just four other draft picks have projected for at least two steals per 100 plays and to block 2% of opponent 2-point attempts: OG Anunoby, Tari Eason, Paul Reed, Matisse Thybulle and Williamson. Although Byrd has shot just 30% from the college 3-point line, his 83% accuracy on free throws suggests he could provide enough spacing to stay on the court for his defense. 14. Jase Richardson, G, Michigan State Top 100: No. 13 | Stats: No. 21 | Consensus: 2.3 WARP The oldest son of longtime NBA guard Jason Richardson came on over the course of his freshman season, rating well statistically. In fact, only Flagg was better among qualifying first-year players by Stathead.com's box plus-minus metric. Richardson doesn't rate quite as well by my stats-only metric in part because his strong 41% 3-point shooting gets regressed to the mean and he was somewhat less effective in the 2023 EYBL. Richardson shot just 33% on 3s there. Still, at the back end of the lottery, Richardson looks like strong value. 15. Asa Newell, PF, Georgia Top 100: No. 21 | Stats: No. 11 | Consensus: 2.3 WARP
16. Boogie Fland, PG, Arkansas Top 100: No. 52 | Stats: No. 6 | Consensus: 2.2 WARP 17. Khaman Maluach, C, Duke Top 100: No. 8 | Stats: No. 37 | Consensus: 2.2 WARP Extremely efficient on offense, where he shot 75% on 2-point attempts and an impressive 77% from the line with a relatively large usage rate (16%) for a rim-running big, Maluach did not rate as well on defense. Relative to the typical NBA-bound college center, Maluach's 7% block rate was on the low side and he had just eight steals all season. Still, the number can't capture Maluach's versatility as a switchable big, which helps explain his lottery standing. 18. Carter Bryant, F, Arizona Top 100: No. 20 | Stats: No. 18 | Consensus: 2.2 WARP 19. Walter Clayton Jr., PG, Florida Top 100: No. 28 | Stats: No. 13 | Consensus: 2.1 WARP The breakout star of the NCAA tournament, Clayton's rise in the top 100 moved him closer to where he'd been all along in the stats-only model. My model valued Clayton's strong sophomore season at Iona, where he won MAAC Player of the Year, and 39% career 3-point shooting. At 22, Clayton should have been more productive than the younger prospects ahead of him, but he outpaced plenty even accounting for age. 20. Liam McNeeley, SF, UConn Top 100: No. 15 | Stats: No. 23 | Consensus: 2.1 WARP 21. Rasheer Fleming, PF, Saint Joseph's Top 100: No. 30 | Stats: No. 15 | Consensus: 2.0 WARP The combination of solid rebounding and shot blocking already made Fleming a standout in statistical models before his breakout in 2024-25 as a scorer. Upping his usage rate, Fleming also made a career-high 39% of his 3s, demonstrating the stretch ability that will be necessary for him to play power forward in the NBA. 22. Kam Jones, G, Marquette Top 100: No. 44 | Stats: No. 12 | Consensus: 1.9 WARP 23. Koby Brea, SG, Kentucky Top 100: No. 55 | Stats: No. 9 | Consensus: 1.9 WARP 24. Tahaad Pettiford, PG, Auburn Top 100: No. 38 | Stats: No. 17 | Consensus: 1.8 WARP 25. Payton Sandfort, SF, Iowa Top 100: No. 84 | Stats: No. 10 | Consensus: 1.8 WARP 26. Nolan Traore, PG, Saint Quentin (France) Top 100: No. 18 | Stats: No. 36 | Consensus: 1.7 WARP After starring in last year's Nike Hoop Summit, Traore passed on college hoops to play professionally in his native France. An instant standout in the French LNB playoffs, Traore entered the year fifth in the top 100 but declined with his play. On the plus side, Traore has the best assist projection for any top 100 player after averaging 5.2 per game in just 22.8 minutes. However, his inefficient scoring (43% on 2s and 28% on 3s) dropped him out of the top 30 in the stats-only model. 27. Cedric Coward, SF, Washington State Top 100: No. 53 | Stats: No. 16 | Consensus: 1.7 WARP 28. Will Riley, F/G, Illinois Top 100: No. 16 | Stats: No. 43 | Consensus: 1.6 WARP 29. Thomas Sorber, C Georgetown Top 100: No. 24 | Stats: No. 32 | Consensus: 1.6 WARP Would you believe that no Georgetown product has been drafted since Otto Porter Jr. in 2013? Sorber will assuredly break that streak if he stays in the draft after averaging 14.5 PPG, 8.5 RPG and 2.0 BPG as a freshman. As good as that sounds, the bar for center production at the NCAA level is high, which particularly works against fellow DMV freshman Derik Queen of Maryland. By contrast to Queen, who doesn't rate in my top 30 despite being 10th in the top 100, Sorber was a much more effective shot blocker. 30. Alex Karaban, F, UConn Top 100: No. 36 | Stats: No. 26 | Consensus: 1.6 WARP
If we don’t get a top 3 pick, trade it for a proven player. So tired of these offensively inept draft picks. Ime not even gonna play whoever we draft anyways. Get Desmond Bane and put bum ass Jalen on the bench.
Booker is overpaid. Jalen is sucking RN but Booker is just as bad for us when we need to make roster cuts to afford his supermax salary.
I'd gladly pay an extra $20-25MM/yr for Booker over Green for the next 3 years. Booker isn't scoring single digits in 3 of 4 playoff games.
Draft lottery in eight days. 17% chance for top 4 pick and 3.8% for #1 overall. https://www.tankathon.com/ https://www.nba.com/draft/2025
Hey guys, just started getting into it but this looks like a shooting guard heavy draft. Depending where our pick lands we may just be fine long term regardless.
He won't be available at 9 but Knueppel is going to be a star and immediate impact Rookie. His offensive skillset would fit perfectly. Not great 1 v 1 d but not horrible. Edgecomb would also be a great replacement for green but unlike Kneuppel he won't be able to contribute in a meaningful way for a few years.
It's not that easy of course, but if you have a top pick star or borderline star potential SG backing up your starter it's great insurance for the future if things don't work out. With a group this young it's best to play the long game.
good news, i played the draft simulator and after like 157 tries, rox finally got the #2 pick. time to spread rumors about copper fleg so he'll slip from number 1. playoffs 2nd round lessgooooooo
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id...tial-picks-buzz-jazz-wizards-hornets-pelicans No. 9 Houston Rockets (via Phoenix) No. 1 pick odds: 3.8% | Top-four pick odds: 17.3% If they land in the top four, they should pick ... 1. Flagg 2. Harper 3. Bailey 4. Edgecombe Most likely pick if they stay at No. 9: Kon Knueppel, Duke, shooting guard/small forward The Rockets acquired Phoenix's first-round pick, unprotected, as part of a complex swap with Brooklyn that should yield significant dividends in coming years. After a 52-20 regular season, the Rockets were upset in the first round of the playoffs by the No. 7 seed Golden State Warriors, losing in seven games while showing shortcomings in terms of their lack of experience and inconsistency on the offensive end. With 2023 and 2024 first-rounders Cam Whitmore and Reed Sheppard struggling for minutes on a deep and talented roster, it remains to be seen what the appetite in Houston will be for adding another young player to the mix. Knueppel's perimeter shooting, feel for the game, toughness and maturity would seemingly give him a better chance of cracking the lineup and adding value in the near term than other prospects in this range, especially if the franchise pivots to a Sheppard/Amen Thompson backcourt down the road, with Jalen Green able to become an unrestricted free agent in 2027. -- Givony What we're hearing on the Rockets: The Rockets will be a significant hub for trade activity in the lead up to draft night, as their roster is clearly in a different place than any other team selecting in the lottery regarding the franchise's timetable. There is likely to be significant debate about what the Rockets should do with this pick, as they are a prime target for an "all-in" type of move for a veteran star like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Durant, or Ja Morant, but also they have salary cap and luxury tax implications to think about long-term with Green and Alperen Sengun's extensions kicking in this offseason -- and significant expenditure on the horizon with several other big decisions looming in the form of Fred VanVleet's team option and Steven Adams' unrestricted free agency. -- Givony
