Run the market like his crypto currency, I mean his social platform, I mean like his airlines, I mean like his steak company, I mean like his casinos, I mean like his University, I mean…
Today’s market loss felt different than last week. It’s hard to put into words, but the fear and anxiety are gone and now it’s just an expectation that this market is going to crater because we killed American exceptionalism. Acceptance maybe?
Every time someone claims that pointing out that current economic policy stupidity = destroying American market superiority is "being political", I cry a little for our collective national IQ. What a flaming garbage pail 2025 has been so far.
The interesting thing is we aren't down more. We are well above the 200 week moving average and we had a pretty obscene run over 15 months starting in late 2023. I'd really like to buy around that 200 week MA but it will take some time...maybe we don't even get there. Something I noted and saw a few other notice was the dollar really isn't down that much in spite of everything going on and all the horribly bearish sentiment. The DXY had been in the elevated portion of it's historical range before all this chaos and now it's sitting in the middle of the range. Spoiler I don't know about killing American exceptionalism with this chaotic policy though. If the admin quits being idiots (long shot I know) or at least shows some kind of direction then that helps provide some stability to the market and hopefully the economy. That said my worry after doing more thinking and piecemealing things together is that this insanity is some ridiculous pivot to work toward regime change in China that they don't want to outwardly admit. Obviously this would be a disaster for the markets, but some commentary I heard made that idea pop in my head. I still can't figure out why this pivot was made with zero lead time. My feeling is that an Operation Warp Speed type breakup with China might have had a lot of popular support and could have minimized economic impact, but if there are various angles of nefarious intent then a surprise could make sense. I know incompetence is the easiest reason to assign here but something feels purposeful about the chaos considering you have guys like Bessent, Thiel, and others behind the scenes who would stand to make a lot of money from the chaos and new cold war. Something just feels off about all this, but I can't pin things down...but maybe it's just all incompetence. Don't want to get too political so I added the spoiler but that's my 2 cents.
Imagine believing SPY can continue to return 25%+ YOY indefinitely. This is like blaming the SEC for your investment losses after taking down Madoff, who was returning around 14% YOY.
As each day passes, I become more and more on-board about hard decoupling. We have 60% of the population lives in small towns across the country. They were living in industrial towns that from the 90s on saw their jobs leave for Mexico and then to China. The jobs left, but the people didn't. And new jobs did not show up beyond being a warehouse worker for companies like Amazon. If the choice is being a boilermaker or being a package sorter, I'd rather they be a boilermaker. Frankly, if we have to restart our economy to 2006 levels to have domestic side supply lines in the post globalization era, then that's what is has to be. We are the Sick man in the West. We need our tanzimats.
Stages of grief lol. Market is going to need a reason to believe again. Retail has capacity to buy a few dips but weeks of downturn kills their hopes and dreams.
We've yet to see the final form. There's still battles raging on what decoupling means, like from China or from the world. Making sure the 40% who don't own stocks are taken care of will be its own challenge. Many don't want to feel like a drain on society, and the "good jerbs" they can do seem to be hard to find. If you believe the unemployment numbers, they're historically low but that's not counting young men who don't even try to find a jerb. As for what we're seeing. Imagine a heart seizure for 90 days where businesses pause and get a better look at that mythical final form before allocating money for the rest of the year and next.
and yet stock is up 4.5% After hours...of course the earnings call is about to start, so maybe things change after that.
Yee, go load up, lulz. TOAST. What's up with BABA these days? I see it alive and kicking while we rot.
On the earnings call, Musk said he would spend less time on DOGE starting in May. So logically that means TSLA is going to zoooom.
