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HOUSTON ROCKETS 2024-2025 NBA SEASON DISCUSSION

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Mr. Dominant, Oct 11, 2024.

  1. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    [Suns] “Cleveland Cavaliers associate head coach Johnnie Bryant and Houston Rockets assistant coach Royal Ivey are two candidates to monitor, sources tell The Stein Line. Jared Dudley and Sean Sweeney are also potential candidates with both coaches currently on the staff of the Dallas Mavericks.”
     
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  2. Mr. Dominant

    Mr. Dominant Member

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  3. Mr. Dominant

    Mr. Dominant Member

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    I wish we had Cade instead of Jalen. Anyone else feel the same or nah?
     
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  4. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

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    How can you not love Cade?
     
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  5. roslolian

    roslolian Member

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    He was first pick for a reason.
     
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  6. Holybats

    Holybats Member

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    We are too unlucky with Cade JG pick.
     
  7. REEKO_HTOWN

    REEKO_HTOWN I'm Rich Biiiiaaatch!

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    We could have had Mobley
     
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  8. Rocket River

    Rocket River Member

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    Maybe Cade getting some shine
    will drive Jalen a little

    Rocket River
     
  9. bluffkin

    bluffkin Member

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    i'm gonna cry... actually I'm good we got Sengun and Amen. No guarantees who we'd pick after taking Mobley
     
  10. MystikArkitect

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    Or Franz. Or Barnes. Or Suggs.

    To be a fly on the wall to hear what Ime actually thinks of Jalen Green at this point.
     
  11. Houston77

    Houston77 COOKIES AND CAKE, MY TEAM BAKED!
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    If we draft Mobley, we probably don't draft Sengun. We likely do not end up with Amen. The whole landscape changes. It's impossible to know how everything unfolds.
     
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  12. REEKO_HTOWN

    REEKO_HTOWN I'm Rich Biiiiaaatch!

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    you’re right. We draft Mobley and we probably lose one more game and end up getting Wemby in to lotto
     
  13. Houston77

    Houston77 COOKIES AND CAKE, MY TEAM BAKED!
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    Huh? Man, y'all really need to stretch reality to support your weird beliefs.
     
  14. karakedi

    karakedi Member

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    can we trade green-reed and suns pick for suggs
     
  15. Easy

    Easy Boban Only Fan
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    [​IMG]
     
  16. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6333971/2025/05/05/rockets-playoffs-game-7-warriors-future/

    The likes of Kevin Durant, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Zion Williamson, and Devin Booker will be linked in the rumor mill in the coming weeks, all with different pros and cons depending on Houston’s direction. Team sources say the Rockets will monitor the market closely and will hold internal discussions about potential fits and offers.

    League and team sources have also indicated that VanVleet wants to remain in Houston for the long run, which VanVleet spoke about Sunday. Tari Eason and Smith are also extension-eligible, and team sources say the Rockets are hopeful to keep them in town for the long haul.


    https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id...2025-draft-free-agency-trade-targets-30-teams

    Houston Rockets

    2024-25 record: 52-30

    Draft picks in June: No. 9 (via PHX), No. 59 (via OKC)

    Free agents: Fred VanVleet (T), Steven Adams, Jeff Green, Aaron Holiday (T), Jae'Sean Tate, Jack McVeigh (R) and N'Faly Dante (R)

    State of the roster:
    Losing in the first round as the No. 2 seed should be considered a failure. But a big-picture approach -- and taking into account where Houston was after trading James Harden in 2021 -- shows how much the Rockets overachieved this season. The 17-, 20- and 22-win seasons since Harden was traded were replaced with 41 wins a year ago and 52 this season.

    The true test now comes with how the Rockets' front office and coaching staff evaluate the roster and then address their playoff shortcomings. That approach should be much different from the regular season, during which Houston rightfully took a conservative approach to tweaking its roster.

    "We definitely want this group to be as good as it can be this year and then we'll evaluate things at the end of the year," GM Rafael Stone said in December. "But the hope is very much that this core group can lead us to where we want to go ... from a transactional perspective we're largely done."

    The Rockets have a defensive identity under head coach Ime Udoka (they ranked fifth in efficiency this season) and are comfortably positioned to have success over at least the next few seasons. They will add a top-10 pick from Phoenix to a roster that will return Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson, Tari Eason, Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, Fred VanVleet and last year's lottery pick Reed Sheppard. Houston could lose veteran center Steven Adams to free agency.

    The question now is if relying on continuity is good enough to compete for a championship?

    Offseason finances:
    VanVleet's $44.9 million team option will play a role in how much flexibility the Rockets have this offseason. The Rockets have a five-day window after their final postseason game to exercise the option. Factoring the first-round pick owed by Phoenix and exercising the VanVleet option, Houston would be $7.5 million over the luxury tax and right at the first apron. The Rockets could decline the option and then sign VanVleet to a long-term contract but for less money.

    Houston does have some financial flexibility, with $12 million in nonguaranteed contracts (Aaron Holiday and Jock Landale) if VanVleet's option is exercised. Houston has until June 29 to guarantee Landale's $8 million contract and exercise Holiday's $4.9 million team option. Top front office priority: Houston's first-round loss to Golden State should have the franchise internalizing two questions.

    First, is there confidence that the current roster and addition of a top-10 pick can develop into more than just a good regular-season team? Their leading scorer in the regular season, Jalen Green, averaged six fewer points and shot 37.2% from the field and 31.2% on 3-pointers in the first round. (He had eight points and five turnovers in the Game 4 loss.)

    Houston as a team was outscored 22-10 in clutch time throughout the first three losses after going 26-18 in such games, tied with Cleveland for the most clutch wins in the league.

    That leads into the second question: Do the Rockets need an All-NBA-caliber player, specifically the Suns' Kevin Durant or even the Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo, to take the next step? If they do go star chasing, the Rockets check three critical boxes:

    Draft equity: They have five tradeable firsts in the next seven years, including the ninth pick in this year's draft and unprotected firsts in 2027 (Phoenix) and 2029 (Phoenix or Dallas). The Rockets can also trade first-round picks in 2028, 2030 and 2032.

    Controllable contracts:
    The Rockets have five players (Smith Jr., Eason, Sheppard, Cam Whitmore and Thompson) on first-round rookie contracts.

    Sizable contracts: Sengun and Green signed rookie extensions last October. The poison pill restriction in their contracts gets lifted on July 1, making them trade-eligible. Both players are set to earn $33 million next season. Brooks has two years left on his contract ($22.1 million and $20.9 million).

    There should also be a priority to retain Adams. The Rockets were at their best in the Golden State series when Adams was paired with Sengun. Houston was a plus-30.7 points per 100 possessions when both players shared the court in the postseason. They were a plus-30 in the regular season.

    Extension candidate to watch:
    For a second consecutive offseason, Houston has two players eligible to sign rookie extensions up until Oct. 21. (Last year, it was Sengun and Green and this offseason it's Smith Jr. and Eason.)

    Smith Jr. started 194 games in his first three seasons but was replaced by Thompson late this season. In the 19 games off the bench, Smith Jr. shot 49.2% from the field and 37.2% on 3-pointers and the Rockets were plus-7.9 points per 100 possessions with him on the court, per Cleaning the Glass. Eason averaged career highs in points (12.0), assists (1.5), steals (1.7), blocks (0.9) and field goal percentage (49%) this season. The Rockets are nearly $80 million below the luxury tax next season and can take a more proactive approach with both players.

    Team needs:
    A center, if Adams leaves in free agency. There is also a priority for Sheppard to develop into a rotational player. Sheppard averaged 12.6 minutes this season and struggled with consistency from the perimeter. In three games with the G League's Rio Grande Valley Vipers, Reed averaged 30.7 points and 8.3 assists per game.

    Draft assets:
    Houston has eight future first-round picks, five that are tradeable in the next seven years. The Rockets owe Oklahoma City a top-four protected first in 2026 but have their own first in 2027 (they also have swap rights with Brooklyn that year). The Suns will send Houston their 2027 unprotected first. The Rockets also have two of the more favorable firsts between their own, Dallas and Phoenix in 2029 and have seven second-round picks available.
     
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  17. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    Congrats to Rockets assistant coaching legend™ Kenneth Atkinson, who will now be fired within 3 years.
    Congrats to Rockets coaching legend™ John Blair Bickerstaff on finishing second
    Congrats to current Rockets coaching legend™ Imeth Udoka

    [​IMG]
     
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  18. MystikArkitect

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    5 people thought JJ Redick was a Top 3 coach in the league this year?
     
  19. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    Magic, Rockets have similar promise — and unfortunately for them, similar problems

    When it comes to building an NBA contender, the last steps are always the hardest.

    Just ask the Houston Rockets and Orlando Magic, two teams coming off a rebuilding cycle that saw each earn top-six draft picks from 2021 to 2023. With young players and clean salary caps, each team is poised to be a factor in their respective conference playoff races for the next several years. After Houston won 52 games and the Magic, despite a cascade of injuries, made the playoffs for a second straight season, the question no longer is about whether these teams can be postseason participants. It’s whether they can build rosters strong enough to do something once they get there.

    Fans of either team will recognize the thematic commonality in the other. Orlando was the league’s second-ranked defense this year; Houston ranked fourth. Both teams had massive edges in the possession battle, Orlando via leading the league in forced-turnover rate and Houston by topping the circuit in offensive rebound rate. Orlando was just the 27th-ranked offense, while Houston was 13th.

    Shooting, in particular, was an issue — and not just from 3: Orlando finished 28th in true-shooting percentage, while the Rockets were 24th. Tellingly, they were the two worst playoff teams in that category, and in the postseason, the one-sided nature of these teams’ strengths was obvious. Houston was eliminated with the help of a brutal 39-point first half in Game 7 against the Golden State Warriors, a fitting bookend to the 34-point first half that cost them Game 1. Both defeats came at home.

    Orlando’s 26.3 percent 3-point mark was the worst of any playoff team by a mile. For Houston, the question was getting a 3-point attempt of any kind. The Rockets were last among playoff teams in 3-point attempts and 13th in true shooting, with the offense propped up only by serial offensive rebounds.

    All of that takes these teams into the offseason facing some tough choices, but they also have massive opportunities. Each has assets, young players and relatively clean cap sheets. Each also is at a point where standing pat and being patient no longer seems like the best option. One key difference, most likely, also defines them. Let’s take a deeper look.

    Orlando: Needing a supporting cast


    Houston: Looking for its alpha

    What makes the Rockets’ case so interesting is that they are, in many ways, a mirror image of the Magic. But Orlando knows who its alpha dogs are and is trying to find a way to optimize the rest of the roster around them; Houston’s issue is that it has enviable depth and talent but has yet to settle on a leading man.

    That issue was underscored by the Rockets’ lack of reliable shot creation against the Warriors. They were able to get Fred VanVleet on a heater for a couple of games, and Jalen Green erupted for 38 points in Game 2, but their guards aren’t consistently able to beat elite defenses. That put a lot of pressure on All-Star big man Alperen Şengün, who destroys smalls on switches and is a good passer out of double-teams but showed in his matchup with Draymond Green that he can’t consistently generate points one-on-one versus an elite big man.

    I should point out that Şengün might not be that far away. He has been in the NBA for four years but doesn’t turn 23 until July. His biggest weakness is a floater shot that he scored with consistently in 2022-23 but let him down badly this season. If he can regain his touch from roughly 10 feet — a place where opponents let him have any shot he wanted for most of the second half of the season — then we’re having a different discussion.

    Similarly, Şengün’s one-legged set shot from 15 feet — dubbed “The Flamingo” by Rockets play-by-play man Craig Ackerman — can be a weapon that sets up his overpowering drives to the rim if he just makes it more consistently. He’s also leaving way too much money on the table at the free-throw line (69.3 percent and 69.2 percent the past two seasons), which cost Houston in Game 3 against Golden State in particular.

    The good news here for Houston is that it didn’t overreach on Şengün’s contract extension, paying him $187 million over the next five years. His $33.9 million cap hit is nearly identical to Green’s $33.3 million and means the Rockets carry a lot of cap flexibility going forward. Additionally, at his salary, Şengün becomes a bargain if he’s the second option on an elite team.

    The other key piece to Houston’s cap strategy is VanVleet’s $44.9 million team option for next season. With few other players in the free-agent market, the Rockets seem primed to be able to decline the option and then re-sign him to a longer deal at lower annual money. Doing so would give them enough below the tax apron to re-sign Steven Adams and use some exception money on a shooter.

    After that, we get to the hard decisions. Houston has so many high draft picks and coveted young players on its roster that the decisions on whom to pay and how much over the next three years are likely to be crucial. At some point, the Rockets seem almost certain to blast through the tax aprons, but they’ve worked to push back that moment.

    Those decisions start with the guys who aren’t even getting in the rotation right now. Reed Sheppard was the third pick in the 2024 draft but hardly played this season. Cam Whitmore has killed it in the last two summer leagues before retreating to the end of the Houston bench for the winter. And did I mention the Rockets could win the draft lottery this year? (They have a pick swap with Phoenix, which has a 3.8 percent chance of landing No. 1 and a 17.8 percent chance of hitting the top four, although it is more likely to end up as the ninth pick.)

    Houston has key decisions coming on extensions for Jabari Smith Jr. and Tari Eason. Smith was the third pick in the 2022 draft, and his shooting theoretically offers an important weapon, but an inability to play center and a limited dribble game have wiped away a lot of his theoretical value. (In the Golden State series, he could barely get through a couple of bounces to back down a smaller player without losing his handle.) Eason, meanwhile, can be erratic in half-court situations but is a dynamic force with his defense and transition game; alas, he overlaps heavily with rising star Amen Thompson and somewhat with starter Dillon Brooks.

    This takes us back to the leading man issue. The Rockets might be skittish about trading for an A-list talent when Thompson or Şengün might develop enough to take over at some point. Meanwhile, Jalen Green was actually their leading scorer this year and is only 23. Sure, he might be the worst player ever to lead a 52-win team in scoring, but his athletic gifts are obvious, and he’s improved every year. We might be singing a different tune about him a year from now.

    But Green’s extension seemed set up as much to be the matching salary in a blockbuster trade as it did to make him a centerpiece for the Rockets, and that’s particularly true if they can land another guard in the draft and Sheppard shows himself worthy of extended minutes in his second season.

    Houston also can put more assets into a trade than any team this side of Oklahoma City. I already mentioned the possibilities of a Giannis Antetokounmpo trade, but the Rockets also could be players for somebody like Devin Booker — via the two unprotected Phoenix picks they own in 2027 and 2029 — or virtually anyone else they’re interested in engaging on.

    While Kevin Durant’s age would seem to make less sense, the inevitable reality is that some superstar who fits Houston’s timeline will become unhappy at some point in the next 12 months. Houston’s cap and asset sheet is pounce-ready; virtually any combination of players and assets can work in a deal depending on the tastes of their trade partner and the status of the player in question.

    This season, however, shows that the time for patience is over. Houston can keep this group together and make the playoffs every year ad infinitum, but it seems unlikely a playoff-level leading man who can drag them into June will emerge from this group. Between now and the next trade deadline, the mission in Space City is to use Houston’s superior asset trove to find the right one.
     
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  20. Mr. Dominant

    Mr. Dominant Member

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    What an amazing year for us. Excited for what’s to come next year.
     
    #480 Mr. Dominant, May 6, 2025
    Last edited: May 6, 2025

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