At some point you have to look at it as the team is failing the players instead of the players failing the team.
I give them some leeway, there were massive changes in the offseason and I think it'll take the team some time to gel with the new guys. That kind of offseason disruption often leads to slow starts. If they are still underperforming in June, then we'll start to panic.
All other things staying unchanged, if Alvarez, Diaz, and Walker had hit to their projections, the Astros would probably have 4-5 more wins and be widely recognized as one of the best teams in the league. Now that Smith has come into his own a little, he, Pena, and Meyers are more than holding up their end of the bargain. Altuve and Paredes have been fine. The bench players have been fine. Nothing should have been done expected of Rodgers, who at this point seems like a placeholder for Matthews or a deadline trade acquisition. The pitching has been excellent.
The players. The Astros aren't being beaten by strategy. The pitching coach is the only one who really has much of an effect on production on the field, and the pitching has been fine. Hitting coaches do most of their work before the majors, and the MLB hitting coach probably doesn't have much more of an effect than a placebo. Occasionally, they find something wrong in a player's stance/swing, but hitting is so hard that randomness still largely affects when players slump and go on hot streaks.
Manager Players Those are the ones that needs blame. If coaches don't matter, then getting rid of them will have no consequences but will light a fire under the manager.
Stability matters. Firing people just means a team doesn't know what it is doing, and likely will not yield a positive result from the players. If the team was just horrid, it doesn't matter and may be the coaches, too. For a team that is 10-11 with players just likely slumping, it sends the wrong message. I'm not saying Espada is perfect. He might be horrid. I didn't like Dubon in CF, but it has only happened once which may just mean Meyers and Chas were both banged up. Overall, Espada plays the better players more often than the worse players. He just seems like a normal manager. Diaz, Alvarez, and Walker not hitting is the reason the Astros aren't playing well. I'm not ready to say starting Alvarez was a mistake.
There are countless examples of a team replacing the manager and turning the season around. Look at 2022 Phillies. Or, look at the 2004 Astros.
To substantiate your claim, you’d need to look at how many times a hitting coach or manager was fired midseason and how many of those teams actually turned things around. My guess is the overwhelming majority of teams saw little to no improvement after making those moves.
This is reasonable and my assumption is that you are right. However, Espada has been terrible, especially in his bullpen decisions. Changing managers, could possibly have no effect at all. The new manager could be worse and make Dubon the every day starting CF. But if this team does not respond to the current manager and he continues to make poor management decisions, it's a wasted season to simply ignore the problems.
https://tht.fangraphs.com/tht-live/do-teams-improve-by-firing-their-managers/ Interesting that this article found that teams actually performed better after the firing, but that was determined to only be due to regression to the mean (i.e., firing the coach had little effect on a team's performance and only cost a person their job for a reason out of their control). Granted most of teams were playing really bad and improved to less bad through regression to the mean. The Astros aren't that bad. I just don't think Espada is wrong for starting Alvarez. Alvarez will improve whether it is Espada or not. For a team in the Astros position, I would worry more about pissing off the players than banking on regression to the mean that likely occurs with or without Espada.
I have no issue with starting Alvarez. In fact, I think its necessary. I have an issue with Espada's in game pitching decisions and the general lack of emotion and fire that I see on this team. The pitching decisions are directly on Espada, and the emotion is from the tone and environment that he brings to the team. Smith and Pena are fiery. That stands out, in part because that used to be across the entire roster. Correa, Springer, young Bregman, hell, even Maldonado when he did something unexpected. I want to see more fire and emotion from this team and Espada is front and center in that.
Didn’t bagwell have a lot of success in his half season? Dude is smart as **** when it comes to hitting.
Is a fiery team that loses any better than a lacking-emotion team that loses? One of the reasons people constantly b****ed about Tucker was his lack of emotions. I'd rather have players hit than just be fiery for the sake of it, and there's no evidence right now that the "lack of fire" is the Astros' problem.
Alvarez, Diaz, and Walker hit like normal, the Astros are leading the AL West. The Astros are usually losing with the starters on the mound making in-game pitching decisions likely not close to as big a factor in wins and losses as whether to start or not start Alvarez. I think Alvarez is just unlucky.
I do remember the Astros firing hitting coach Sean Berry during the 2010 season. Bagwell was hired on an interim basis and if I recall correctly the team started hitting much better. I think Bagwell was offered the job permanently but he didn't want to be on the road so finished that season and that was it.
The will to win on the team is one thing that a manager can make or break. It may show up as determination or exuberance. Sometimes as confidence that the right decisions are being made. If the players have confidence in their manager it does not really matter what he does they will play up to or above their potential. If not it does not really matter what he does they will not play up to and certainly not above their potential.
