Highest OPS -- not Altuve 1st Paredes 2nd Altuve 3rd..... Spoiler Two players above a measly .700 Half the team is below .600 We're not bottom 5 (entering today), so at least there's that. .
I know it’s only 16 games in, but this team is not impressive or threatening in any way. No one looks at the Astros and goes “oh my God! What a juggernaut, heaven help us!!” No they look at us as mediocre and unimpressive. And frankly our division looks like that as well. So the ONLY good thing the Astros have going for them is the fact that this division will probably constantly flip flop 1st place all year until the end. They MIGHT have a shot at the division but that’ll be it. I’m really surprised at Walker so far. I did not have him sucking this hard.
A sad fact is that Yordan is the only hitter Houston has who pitchers fear. Yainer, Paredes, Altuve, and Walker are hitters pitchers respect, but not fear. Rodgers, Pena, Smith, Meyers, Dubon, Dezenzo, Caratini, and McCormick are hitters pitchers attack. I think Pena, McCormick, and Dezenzo could potentially be respectable hitters, and Smith could eventually be a feared hitter, but it will take time to figure it out. Most of Houston’s contending lineups had at least 3 hitters that pitchers truly feared. Correa anytime he was healthy, 2018-2019 Bregman when the ball was juiced, 2014-2023 Altuve, 2021-2024 Tucker, Yordan, 2016-2019 Springer.
The pitching can be a juggernaut and will be the catalyst for this team's success. The offense will finish Top 10-ish unless Walker goes Jabreu on us -- but I believe a .775 OPS is more likely than .725. Rodgers is showing hope for non-Coors success. It's just incredible how many guys are sucking right now on offense. McCullers' return is rejuvenating -- although he needs some serious load management. If he can give 5 IP on <90 pitches, it would be awesome. He doesn't need any 90+ PC games, and should be removed after 5 innings (if he makes it), regardless of his pitch count. Is Garcia still alive? Amazing how he supposedly flirted with a return late last season and now he's not even mentioned as playing before ASB this year.
Episode 99 of breathing orange fire is up. We talk about the season being 10% over, what we’ve seen and learned so far and what that means for the future. Listen, share, like, rate and review.
I feel like the season so far has been a near worst case scenario offensively. Not only have none of the upside hitters broken out, but the 3 of the 5 established hitters started out cold. The pitching has had a good start, Framber’s dud last night notwithstanding. The next 15 games are very important imho. I think we will see even more of a seller’s deadline than last season (which was already an extreme seller’s deadline), and if Houston is several games behind in the division, a pretty drastic sell off might make start to make a lot of sense (I’m talking shopping Walker, Caratini, McCormick, Meyers, Dubon, Framber, Hader, and Abreu). At this point, it is looking like Houston should have sold last deadline when they could’ve gotten a haul for Bregman, Tucker, Framber, and Abreu to reset things quickly.
Nah. If there is a chance, we should take it. We can still win the division this season and with our pitching , anything can happen in the playoffs The player that concerns me is Yanier. Yes he is a hitter but he isn't proven and has plenty of lfaws in his approach. I say this as a big fan.
The projections still paint this roster as a contender. Fangraphs has the position player projected to finish with 28.2 fwar and the pitchers with 15.6. Odd that the pitchers are so low but they don’t expect very productive seasons from Blanco (1.5), Arrighetti (0.7) or Wesneski (0.9), so I think there’s quite a bit of upside there. Paredes currently projects to a star-level 4.6 fwar, but that is really the only notable upside improvement. Yainer Diaz’s projection has slipped to a mediocre 1.8 fwar, with Houston having glaring weaknesses at 2B (Rodgers at 0.8) and RF (Smith at 0.8). Some of that is mitigated by the strength of Houston’s bench, with Caratini, Dubon, and McCormick projected to combine for a robust 3.9 fwar. Yordan’s projection has dropped almost a full win to 4.6 fwar (notable that Paredes is projected to finish the year tied with Yordan as Houston’s most valuable player). If the middle of the order doesn’t get right soon, this team is cooked. Even if that happens, they will need their pitching to continue to consistently exceed expectations to be a real contender.
You are probably right and I think Crane thinks as you do. The odds of Houston pivoting to rebuild are probably very very low. That said, reading the market and looking at how things have played out so far, I do see a scenario where Houston is 5-6 games out of the division in mid July and flips Framber, Walker, Abreu, and Hader for a haul of prospects to reshape the farm system and dramatically improve the long term outlook while costing 2026 no more than 2-3 wins. The Tucker trade proved that they are not completely closed off to the idea. Way too early to panic but I think the next 15 games will give us a good idea of what this years team is.
Quality starts thru 3 turns: Brown 3 Wesneski 2 Framber: 2 (has had 4 turns) Arrighetti/Gusto: 1 Blanco 0
Guys I’d sell and the potential price at the deadline (regardless of where we are) Framber- 1 too 50, another top 100, top 20 organizational type as well. Caratini/ org top 20- no money out Walker- top 100- would be willing to send some money out to make happen Meyers- org top 10 type- no money out Chas- org top 20 type- no money out Dubon- bucket of shag balls Abreu- two top 100’s. - No money out. Hader- top 25 and top 100- 30M out with him. That’s trading best closer in the game on functionally a 4 year/40M contract. So- if we traded all those guys that would be basically 50M headed out the door and incoming would be a top 25, 2 top 50, 3 top 100 and 4 or 5 organizational guys. You could feel real good about the next 6-10 years if we get any development at all from the minors and we land anyone good from that haul- which we should. I don’t think it’s coming down to that bc I think the offense is just fine. Last year we tied for 5th in wRC+ and we are trading: full season Bregman, full season Abreu/singleton, half season of Tucker and half season of **** for full seasons of Smith, Paredes and Walker. I bet we met out stronger on replacements than the guys that left, and the other 6 spots are manned by the same players with good track records who are not on the downside of their careers. Water will find its level and we will be fine. We’ve had 4 of the 22 unluckiest hitters in Major League Baseball. They are all established offensive players. They are all guys struggling right now. That will not continue.
Blanco had 2 out of 3 that were fine on runs allowed but missed by an inning or less. His era is 6 but his FIP is 3. I’d been selling on him all off season but am reasonably impressed. Team FIP is 3.29. Two guys in the ass end of the bullpen have pitched like **** and are about to be replaced by Whitley and LMJ. I’ incredibly happy with the arms on the mound so far.
Beginning April 7, the Astros have six players with an xwOBA >.350. Yainer and Altuve still look concerning, but the other guys seem like they are coming around. Just need to not fall off the cliff again like they did the first week.
Altuve strikeout rate under 20% now for the season. That’s the only stat either enough track record to stabilize. All the Astros other than Walker are more or less fine on that metric. We look fine on the stats with meaning.
Hmm...... I'll allow it. Helton was certainly helped by Coors Field, but he still had a career OPS of .855 on the road, which is really stellar, even in the offensive era he played. Really, the biggest difference is that Helton hit a lot more homers at home, and was a 345-career hitter in Coors and 285-outside of Coors. Regardless, he hit everyone - he hit velocity guys, he hit junk ball guys, he hit leverage guys and her hit specialists. Basically he was Lou Gehrig at home and John Olerud on the road.
We should have started 7-9 last year except ape face Espada played with the line up card like it was his balls after watching Violet Myers **** a fan.
So, we talked about it on the podcast and I said I have a lot of gripes against Espada. Maybe I'm right and maybe I'm wrong (and I know manager isn't all that important) but here's what I pressed Andrew on and he had no answer for me, if you want to try your hand at being an Espada defender: "what is it that you think he does well? What is he an upper half or 10% manager at?" I've got nothing and I'm trying to be fair to him about that.
Tell us how you really feel Nook. I was proponent of hiring Espada because the players liked him and there was continuity, but holy heck, he doesn't seem very bright.
