Didn't we go through this last year? I'm a math idiot and can't remember if the odds are the odds or if they change after each winner is announced. I think something is off with the straightforward calculation because if every team above us in the lottery had at least a 17% chance for a top 4 pick that means a percentage much greater than 100%. Anyway, somebody who knows something please speak up. Stupid math.
I think that is right. While also still having the Nets swap unprotected in 2026. Which should should likely convey. That could all together end up being 5-6 top 10 picks. Along with partial asset to acquire Cam Whitmore. edit. For Harden trade
You’re right. And this embarrassing I knew it was 2 years but I was using 2024 in my head because apparently I forgot what year it was.
Well - that, and you're missing quite a bit more about the equation. You're treating it as an unchangeable equation with 2 variables, but might there be "if" and "but" clauses that affect things?
No, you can't just add them together, you have to get into algebra. Easier just to use an online probability calculator to figure it out. According to the one I found, it comes out to a 16.2% chance of landing a top 4 pick.
Its out of 4 picks not one so technically its out of 400 percent. We have 17 percent chance when of getting one of four spots. There are still four spots. Hence 400 percent.
EDIT: see above post. All lottery teams probability of landing #1 adds up to 100%. Same for 2/3/4. So the total is really 400%. I think. I could very well be wrong. Been corrected couple of times already just in this thread. LOL
Adding another top 4 pick to this core would be so juicy. I wouldn't mind just straight up trading for Ausar Thompson though if we get the opportunity. I would love to see Amen and Ausar terrorize on the defensive end.
So the 17.08% is just add them all up, which is really out of 400%. Somebody please help us out. There’s gotta be an accurate number.
When we made the trade for these Suns picks, one of the reasons I was a bit down on it was that I didn’t think this 2025 Suns pick swap would be anything significant, and I didn’t think the 2029 Dallas pick had much of a chance to be good with Doncic. Wow, how things changed. Even if you think you know, you don’t really know.
The odds of us getting a top-4 pick are equal to the combined odds of us getting the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th pick. So, yes, you add those up to get our odds of a top-4 pick.
That Mavs pick is so down the line I refuse tk get hyped an out it until 2028. They could get another star before then
So 17.08% out of 400%? It's been awhile since I reviewed fractions and such for the SAT, but wouldn't that be 4.27% out of 100%?
I think I got it. https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds Forget other teams. Just look at the rows. For each row (ie each team), all numbers add up to 100% as well. So 17.08% is correct.
they wouldn’t. He’s their 2nd best player and they know what they have. The only thing I don’t like about Amen is the dreamcasting that will come with Asuar. I do think there’s a possibility they link up years later, and I like Houston’s chances if that ever happens. But in the mean time, the Asuar dream trade proposals are going to be annoying. No disrespect to the Asuar dreamers.
