If I were picking in order of who I think we're most likely to beat: 1. Dallas 2. Sacramento 3. Memphis 4 Denver (Yeah I know you'll think I'm crazy, but Murray is hurt and they just fired their coach and GM a few days ago. That's an organization in chaos) 5. Minnesota (Rudy has historically sucked in the playoffs. Edwards is at least still young. But man, they've looked incredible lately) 6. Los Angeles Lakers (they have no bigs) 7. Los Angeles Clippers (let's hope that for once Playoffs Harden works to our advantage) 8. Golden State Warriors 9. OKC But listen, I just don't care who we play. Everything post-season is bonus. We're ahead of schedule. It's all just experience for our boys. And honestly, knocking out a team like the Warriors or Lakers in the first round, or even sending Harden to go fishing, sounds really really fun to me. And if we lose to those teams, no biggie. We're on the rise, and nobody expects us to beat them.
Here’s the options apparently, so basically if Rockets win, there’s 50% chance at Nuggets, 25% Minnesota and 25% Warriors to play Grizzlies for 7th seed. If we lose the Wolves 50%, Clippers 25% and Warriors 25% to play Grizzlies.
Wait … what do you consider the odds are a highly-motivated tanking team like the Jazz beat Minny on the road 50%. DraftKings and FanDuel have that game at a 21.5 pt spread … clearly not a toss-up.
That’s not all what I’m saying, scenario wise there’s 2 out of 4 where the Wolves are in the 7-8 spot...
so to clarify I know that anyone in the play tournament can be beaten, but it’s likely that we’re playing either the Clippers or the Warriors?
play-in tournament looks so goofy this year 7th seed Wolves are 15 games above .500 8th seed Grizzlies are 13 games above .500 So why are we giving 2 teams that are both 3 games below .500 a chance to knock them out of the playoffs?
Ok, got it. I just wouldn’t describe 2 out of 4 scenarios in terms of ”% Chance”, as you did. That’s why I got confused.
I agree, but I betcha there will be many, many fans of the 7v8 game loser wanting to lose the 2nd playin game to jump from 19-20 to 14th pick. I’ve been around here enough to know a cfnet thread would start about that. It’s a tangible consolation prize, for sure.
Fair enough, it’s actually a bit different as you can see in the scenarios in the graph. 8/16 scenarios have Minnesota along with Grizzlies in the play-in.
This is definitely the best graphic so far, but there is one flaw: The first column should have been T-Wolves/Jazz since we all know the T-Wolves will win. That way, the 8 scenarios where they win would be grouped consecutively instead being chopped up into 4 bits of two. The 8 scenarios where the T-Wolves lose are worthless to even consider and just muddle up everything being mixed in instead of separated out.
Kings and Mavs are #9 and #10 and can only face the #1 seed, the Thunder, if one of them qualifies. At #2, the Rockets are locked into the winner of the 7 vs. 8 game.
[I posted this in the other thread also] Three of the four meaningful games are very predictable, leaving only one competitive game. Rockets will have a very dangerous first round opponent. 100% chance T-Wolves will beat the Jazz 100% chance Grizzlies will beat the Mavs Highly likely Rockets will lose to the Nuggets The only real contest tomorrow is Clippers @ Warriors. The loser hosts and probably beats the Grizzlies in the #7 vs. #8 game. If the Clippers win, #1 Thunder #2 Rockets #3 Lakers #4 Nuggets #5 Clippers #6 T-Wolves #7 Warriors #8 Grizzlies If the Warriors win, #1 Thunder #2 Rockets #3 Lakers #4 Nuggets #5 T-Wolves #6 Warriors #7 Clippers #8 Grizzlies
If there’s no play in, teams will just start shameless tanking much sooner. With play-in, at least those bubble teams will still compete hard. I mean, if 7/8 are so much better, show it then. Beat the crap out of 9/10 and advance. Two games at most anyway.
allowing an almost 50 win team to have their entire 82 game season thrown away because of 2 games is ridiculous anything can happen in a single game or 2…the Clippers just barely beat the Kings by 1 point, and they are 10 games better than them if u can’t even manage to be within 5 games of the 8th seed, u have no business being given the opportunity to be in the playoffs Raptors were nowhere close to even being in the play-in yet are 13-13 since the ASB Why haven’t the Blazers been shameless tanking? They never had a chance either, but are 12-14 since the ASB
Blazers aren't tanking because Chauncey Billups is probably coaching for his job. The NBA decided to put a premium on being top 6. If a team finishes 7 or 8, there is more work to do. That's just the way it is. The gap in records between 7/8 and 9/10 is irrelevant. Previous two years the gap was only 3 games. Maybe next year it will be closer like those. The rules are set and known by everyone before the season starts and the results are what they are. One year the Rockets went all the way to the NBA finals with a losing record. Not only that, the team they beat in the conference finals that year also had a losing record.
Blazers had a chance. They only got eliminated not long ago. If there’s no play-in, even Kings and Mavs will be shameless tanking much earlier, coz there’s no way they can catch #8. Yes you can say it’s kinda unfair if a 50-win team gets knocked out of play-in because of 1 or 2 losses. But isn’t that what makes March Madness exciting?
And the Raptors? I’m not talking about the previous 2 years, I am talking about this year. I literally said in my post that if u can’t even manage to be within 5 games of the 8th seed, u have no business being given the opportunity to make the playoffs. If the gap is only 3 games, then ok, but it’s not. The 7th and 8th seed are over 10 games over .500 while the 9th and 10th seed are nowhere close. we all know what the Adam Silver rules are, doesn’t make them any less ridiculous
