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Phoenix Suns' Pick Tracking Thread

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Aruba77, Jan 2, 2025.

  1. Cosmonaut

    Cosmonaut Member

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    Do you actually really want both Booker and Durant? After the season the Suns have had I don't think I want them. I wouldn't even know who to give up for them considering the amount of salary required. Fred seems the obvious choice, but he has been good for the young guys. Dillion? but he is only making like 20 million and he has been much better this season.
    I think we will know more on who needs to be traded after the playoffs finish, depending how deep the Rockets go.
     
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  2. today

    today Member

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    I think we'll see a blockbuster multi-team trade with Durant/Booker going out, and PHO taking back young talent/picks/expirings.

    I'm hoping Minny gets swept in the 1st round and Ant demands out, but it could be some other team.

    All that to say that we're not limited to choosing between Durant/Booker. There will be some other player(s) who are available.
     
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  3. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

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    I'm not saying what the Rockets should do, just wanted to see who agrees it's obvious what the Suns should do. The more compelling the idea is to the Suns, the more leverage for the Rockets in negotiations.

    I agree no conclusions can be made before the playoffs end. Probably the more successful the Rockets are, the less attractive a Suns megadeal would be.
     
  4. Rokman

    Rokman Member

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    No to Booker. No to Durant.

    Keep the youth movement. Only high upside, gritty young players who are coachable. No divas or $50 million players.

    Draft smart again this year. Renegotiate FVV contract or let him walk and most importantly, keep the Core 7 intact.
     
  5. AndySwanny

    AndySwanny Member

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    Durant is probably my favorite on-court player of this era and I don’t want him or Booker after this season. Both talented but both not gonna give us the leap if this is how low they’re able to fall. I agree on waiting to see who might be available and stick with our guys if it isn’t Ant or Jokic or Giannis. Maybe a couple others are on the list too.
     
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  6. Dr of Dunk

    Dr of Dunk Clutch Crew

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    I think y'all may be confused. For lottery purposes, there is only one tie-breaker and that's a coinflip. How they'd do the 3-way flip, I'm not sure - they may draw numbers from a hat or have a computer flip among 3 teams, or roll 3 die, but for purposes of the lottery breaking a tie is done randomly using a "coin flip" (we'll just call it that).

    So when y'all go on Tankathon and see the Suns' pick currently as the #9 pick :

    1) It's not the #9 pick yet - it's more like "the 9th best probabilities in the lottery". If Phoenix is tied with Portland at the end of the season, a coin-flip will occur to break the tie for lottery purposes. This obviously happens before the lottery itself.

    2) Once the tiebreaking/coin-flips are done, we will be set in terms of lottery positioning/seeding and then we'll conduct the lottery where our #9 or #10 or whatever pick can move into the top-4 or drop back a bit.

    3) On Tankathon, (today, anyway), you can see the #9 pick currently has a slightly higher probability than the #10 pick in terms of chances at a top-4 pick and the #1 pick even though both teams have a tied record. This is because Tankathon has already done a hypothetical coin flip tiebreaker and assumes the Suns won that coinflip already.

    A bit more detail on 3) above : The #9 and #10 teams will have a combined 75 ping pong balls in the lottery, so since they're tied, they split those ping pong balls. Since 75 can't be split evenly, they each get 37 of them with 1 ping pong ball left over. They flip a coin to break the tie between the two teams. The team that wins gets the extra ping pong ball, which would give that team 38 ping pong balls and the higher seeding in the lottery. On Tankathon, they currently have Phoenix having won a hypothetical coin flip, so they get the extra ping pong ball. This is why they have a 3.8% chance of getting the #1 pick (38/1000 total lottery combinations) and Portland has a 3.7% chance (37/1000 total lottery combinations).
     
  7. ScriboErgoSum

    ScriboErgoSum Member
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    I read that for a 3 way tie for the lottery, all three teams flip a coin until 1 team gets a unique result and the others get the opposite. That team wins the tie break. Then the remaining 2 do a standard coin flip to decide.

    You got it spot on for the 9 and 10 tie. We'd get either 37 or 38 chance of the top pick depending on the tie break.

    If we wind up in a 3 way tie with the Spurs, there'd be 135 total combinations between 8, 9, and 10, so each team would get 45 combinations and a 4.5% chance at the top pick.
     
  8. BIGThirsty

    BIGThirsty Member

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    No way I wouldn't be trading Dilly B for nobody. He is our enforcer who is going to do it when he's gone?
     
  9. luckyman76

    luckyman76 Member

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    If this was early last year and they could use the stretch provision it is $150M over 5 years. A buy out now makes no sense for the Suns OR Beal. Why would Beal give the Suns ANYTHING back? His salary is guaranteed. He needs to play THERE and average 20 points for his next contract to revive his brand on a garbage team. He is a scorer that plays no D with an injury history. If he goes to another team it is for the vet min and will never have a non min contract again. He might get them something as an expiring contract. The Suns are going to get out of the 2nd apron by other means. Buying out Beal does NOTHING for Suns when they have no draft capital. This is a much worse version of Wall. We wanted to lose and NOT play Wall because we wanted the minutes to develop players. In PHX there is no one to develop. Sometimes being in hell means you are stuck in hell until 2032.
     
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  10. Shark44

    Shark44 71er
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    I see KD as their best player, so subtracting him while adding a declining FVV and a solid, but limited SF is not going to save their franchise's decline.

    As far as extending KD, that's TBD. We have one year to see how he fits and to chase a championship. If it works, I'll trust Stone to figure it out.

    Of course PHX could extend FVV and perhaps he revitalizes his career and they sign great FA with the savings, but that’s the kind of risk I'd take versus the alternative of PHX coaxing a better return from someone else.

    Loses of DB and Fred hurts some, but also frees time for our youngins.

    Last thought, PHX would probably want at least one of their picks but I wouldn't do it for potentially one year of KD.
     
  11. peleincubus

    peleincubus Member

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    I don't personally think there is a risk of anything the Suns do. If the Rockets do not feel there is anything they want to do with Durant or Booker then the only other 2 options are be involved in a 3-way trade or do nothing.

    If they do nothing there is truly not a thing the Suns can do to be a good team. They have no assets and can not get rid of Beal. If somehow they were able to get rid of Beal they would have to use assets to accomplish the trade (only one's they have would be from the Durant trade or Booker) so they would be back at square one. I can not think of a feasible way out for the Suns out of the situation they have put themselves in.

    If I were the Rockets I would do nothing and either draft each pick as they come or trade them to another team for top 5 player. The Rockets are in an enviable position do not have to lift a finger to help the Suns they will implode regardless.
     
  12. Shark44

    Shark44 71er
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    I wasn't excited when we signed him, but he's been a godsend. However, if we entertain a deal for KD we have to give up some value.

    Amen's WWE move on Tyler Herro tells me he'll help set the right tone. Also, we could resign Steven Adams who no one wants to mess with.
     
  13. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

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    I got news for you: Brad Beal doesn't give a flip about playing for "his next contract to revive his brand". He'll be 35 years-old the summer of 2028 and nobody will care about him. Beal is so brittle he'll be lucky to play 40 games in any of the next 3 seasons.

    He'll also have over $300 million in career earnings.
     
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  14. saleem

    saleem Member

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    Giannis might become available if the Bucks play poorly in the playoffs. I wouldn't sell the farm for him, or anyone else.
     
  15. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    It would be the death of a small town, they need to tie him up to the franchise until he is 35.......

     
  16. Jontro

    Jontro Member

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    rox shouldn't be trading for anyone above 29. only exception is prolly yokich. otherwise it's ant, lerbonny, or luka skywalker
     
  17. carl_herrera

    carl_herrera Member

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    My read is that PHX has told Beal they’d buy him out for ~$100M of the $110M, so he can find a landing spot for a small prove it contract somewhere else.

    Then PHX can do a delayed waive and stretch. They’d eat ~$48M dead money next year and ~$18M/yr the next 3 years after that.

    This would help them get under the first apron next season if they can also save money on the KD trade, and would let them have cap space in 2026 if KD only brings back expirings.

    Don’t get me wrong - they’ll still suck and be hampered by Beal for years. But they need $ flexibility more than anything so that’s what they’ll target this summer IMO.
     
  18. gmoney411

    gmoney411 Member

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    I read somewhere today that they couldn't waive and stretch Beal.
     
  19. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

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    Yes .... you can make that argument.

    It's simple - and I've laid this out multiple times and people still act like there's a deal to be made with the Rockets and no one else.

    Washington and Utah own their other picks in 26,28,30 & 31.

    The Rockets own 25, 27 & 29.

    If they get the picks back from the Rockets, they still can't bottom out for any length of time - one year isn't enough.


    Helping them out of their cap issues is just stupid.

    I just can't understand why so many people are dead set on pissing away those assets for an old dude or a shooter who doesn't shoot league average .... on a supermax contract.

    They are stuck, sit back and enjoy the multiple lottery picks you have coming.
     
    #1539 Corrosion, Apr 11, 2025
    Last edited: Apr 11, 2025
  20. carl_herrera

    carl_herrera Member

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    They can’t do it immediately, they have to do the delayed version where they take the full or (bought out) cap hit this year and the stretch starts next summer.
     
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