I know many in here are saying if they end up tied with Portland it is a "coin flip" for 9 vs 10 but my understanding is its a bit more complex than that. If two teams end up tied, I believe the percentage odds of the top 4 lottery for both spots are added then split equally between the two teams. The "coin flip" just determines which team gets any remainder if the split leads to an odd number and the better draft position (so sitting in slot 9 vs slot 10). That draft position I think just effects the percentage of staying put or dropping back, not the lottery odds to jump up. So if a team wins the coin flip and gets position 9, they would have a 50.7% change to be at 9, a 25.9% chance to be at 10, 3% chance at 11, etc. while the position 10 coin flip loser has a 65.9% chance at 10, 19.0% chance at 11, 1.2% chance at 12. So, that sucks to lose the coin flip but I think it's main impact is just on the lower lottery spots while the top 4 odds are split evenly (with the coin flip winner getting any odd "remainder"). Doesn't make a huge difference but it is a few percentage points different for top 4. Instead of 20.3% vs 13.9%, I think both teams would end up at 17.2%. Or am I misunderstanding the tie/coin flip scenario?
You almost always should draft BPA and worry about balancing the roster later. Last year's draft was kind of an exception because there were no clear BPAs at the top. So you either trade out of it or pick for fit.
Saying Amen is not threatening as a starting guard on this team is probably your dumbest take. Too many Thai sticks perhaps?
Cooper would immediately be in the rotation and probably the starting SF. I know you are butthurt that Jalen is playing well and Reed wasn’t the star you predicted, but this is a ridiculous take. I do share your consternation with Ime’s love affair with FVV, but he is coming around. Amen was getting rotation minutes his rookie year and starting minutes after injuries to starters. Reed would’ve gotten rotation minutes if he hadn’t s**t the bed.
I am pretty sure more than 10 rookies in the 2026 season will outperform Reed Sheppard's rookie year. You up for a tipjar bet?
There's zero chance Ime starts a rookie over his friend Dillon Brooks or Amen Thompson. I think deep down you know that even if you still choose to pretend otherwise.
I think the Rockets can generally take a BPA approach. Part of the Rockets' success this year and I think long term is the versatility of the team to take advantage of matchups -- they can go big with Sengun and Bari playing forwards, have Bari playing center, or have Amen play anywhere from PG to PF. Point guard is an interesting question. Between Amen's abilities, Sengun as an offensive hub, Jalen Green's growth, and Reed Sheppard, I think a best case long term outcome is having 2 of those 4 on the court at all times to "run" the offense (with FVV being a part of the solution for the near term). The Rockets actually have more solid caliber connectors/secondary play makers than most teams -- it's more of a question if one of them is a true lead. At forward, Bari, Tari, Amen, and at least 2 more years of Brooks is decent depth at the forward spots. Ideally Whitmore will get figured out, too. Maluach is interesting to me as a long term change of pace to Sengun (and potential to play alongside as we've seen with Adams). Outside of him (and Flagg), I haven't seen a ton of obvious fits that would plug into the roster.
Cp3 and Harden were feuding and hated each other. Keeping Cp3 wouldnt do anything as he sucked ass and Harden was threatening to leave as his contract was expiring.
Def take the BPA, we have seen what happened with Reed you never pick for fit as you can fill any gap in free agency. I would also like to take big men or forwards cuz they generally cost more in FA over guards who are generally a dime a dozen. I want Rox to take a player that projects to be an above average player or better. Maluach, Derrick Queen, Rasheer Fleming, Carter Bryant, Asa Newell etc While rookies I expect these guys to get PT from the 3rd tier guys like Landale, Jeff, Holiday and Tate.
You might have a point about Reed not getting an opportunity, but Cam had his chance. After he returned from the G league he had a 30 game stretch where he got considerable playing time off the bench, 20+ mpg, and took more shots than Amen or Tari. Cam is much worse than the other guys defensively and isn't good enough to warrant the go to scorer role he wants. If he isn't hitting shots he brings nothing to the table. Why would he deserve to jump Amen, Tari, or Jabari? The journeymen vets (Holiday, Tate, and Jeff Green) have played fewer minutes than Cam, but have much more professional attitudes and positive contributions. Amen is a second year player too and has cemented himself in the starting lineup, so it's not like Udoka has a bias against young guys. I was a Cam advocate coming into the season, but was pretty frustrated watching him play. The holes from his game from last year are bigger this year if anything. He lost his spot fair and square.
Yep, since Amen has upped his game late December/early January, the Rockets have had a pretty diversified attack. The Rockets are the 9th best offense since Amen was made a starter despite the severe offensive struggles while FVV was hurt. I'd guess that the Rockets have been a Top 5ish offense when Amen and FVV are healthy this year (not season). I've heard a lot that true contenders finish Top 10 in offensive and defensive rating. The Rockets have a decent chance of cracking into the Top 10 in offense tonight.
I think you are right. Based on this... with this post there: Because it determines the low range of how far the pick can drop between 6 or 7 respectively. So yeah, it does matter lol So it appears that the coinflip only determines the order of the draft if you DO NOT move up. But I guess you split the lottery balls.
What does "what happened with Reed" have to do with "Def take the BPA"? Is Reed a finished product? He is certainly going to get more minutes next year and will improve to some extent how much is left to be seen. At this point there is no one in the draft that I would take before Reed that was drafted after him. It looks like he will be a winning player just like Jabari is and will fill a role on the team just fine in the coming years.
Even Amen struggled to get playing time his rookie season and worth every additional young player Ime gets less willing to give opportunities because it would eat into FVV and Dillon Brooks getting 40 minutes or some random journeyman vet that is about to be out of the league getting time. I don't see him giving another rookie a shot.
I've always seen Ime Udoka as being a Popovich disciple first, and Pop played maybe three rookies in total over the course of his entire pre-Wemby/tanking career? (Duncan, Parker, Leonard)? So it's basically be a future HOF, or you ride the pine. Can't say I love it, but the player development under the Spurs following such a model did work out pretty well for a very long time.
No he didn’t. He was first guard off the bench right out of the gate, Aaron got no minutes. Amen just got injured early. Not just the minutes, Coach was raving about him from the beginning … saying in early pressers during preseason he impressed him the most
Except that Amen is already starting, and he didn’t supplant any of the people I mentioned. I think it would be really dumb to let FVV walk this summer. Whether they pick up the option or work out an extension, I think he’s going to be here. I’m not 100% sold on Green, but their success this year has come with him starting, so I could see the team sticking with him. Amen is here to stay. Whether you see him as a guard or a forward, I think the move to accommodate his ascension to starter is going to come in the form of Brooks (already has a significant contract) or one of Jabari or Tari (who will both be due significant contracts).
