I accidentally timed the market during Covid lol. I bought a big amount on Mar 2020. That turned out to be the absolute bottom. Then I got gamblers mindset and got used to the gains in 2021 and got humbled in 2022. You live and you learn.
Overall I feel like this is a solid opportunity to patiently add. I’d prefer to wait to see how things cycle through the credit markets adjust.
question is, is it a covid like 1-2 month dip? or a 10 month dip like 2022.. if it's 2022, you got plenty of time to DCA.
I don't know how long it will last, but I think that it will take a while for Trade Taxes Deficits Inflation Etc to be sorted out, so I am expecting the Unease to last longer than two months.
So the Fed cuts what is under their control, but it doesn't have much control or influence over long term debt instruments (Bonds) and I thought that bringing down long term rates was one of things that Trump - Bessent wanted to help the Housing Market. Sparking Inflation via Tariffs isn't going to help the Bond market. Murmurs abut Stagflation have been out for a while and we might get to experience it. What is stagflation in simple words? The term stagflation combines two familiar words: “stagnant” and “inflation.” Stagflation refers to an economy characterized by high inflation, low economic growth and high unemployment. The U.S. has only experienced one sustained period of stagflation in recent history, in the 1970s
2018 trade war drawn down was around 3 months...oct-dec.. 2020 covid was around 30 days .. 2022 pullback was ~300 days.. 2025....we are about 40 days in.. so this can be over tomm...in a year...or 4 years. who knows. DCA wisely. not every dip is a buying opp.
I'm with you on the jobs thing. It wont create enough jobs. Nobody will buy new cars if nobody has money. But robotics wont replace human labor until it's cost-efficient, I think there's still time for that hammer to drop.
I bought Delta literally 1 day before Buffet finally dumped it all. Got me sweaty but lucked out. Eventually. It was pure party time after that (market wise, nothing was losing).
I put 10% of my sidelined 401k back in today, even though my signals weren't quite there. And never going to stop max contributing. But I will tinker with the funds.
the fear index, $VIX, has climbed up to 42. the higher the #, the more fear/uncertainty. $VIX was ~17 8 trading days ago. gonna use the $VIX as my guide. when it come down to ~~ 33, i'll start making my shopping list in early Aug 2024, because of inflation fear, the $VIX, from ~~19 in late July , popped to 65. once there was more clarity as to inflation, by mid-Aug, it dropped to 15
We still have the mid-term coup, Trump's 3rd term, AI job cannibalization and Israel's war with Iran. Could it be a "lost decade" scenario. No wonder companies were/are kissing Trump's hand, desperate for government contracts. Burry still holding prison stocks? Lulz.
I'm truly curious how inflationary these tariffs will be. My sentiment is that they will be muted but this is one big experiment. Truflation index has inflation crashing over the past few months yet the Fed seems content with rates. Bonds have rallied modestly but credit stress has skyrocketed. I'm glad I'm mostly in cash but man I wish I was still trading full time. I feel so disconnected from the markets now that I've basically retired.
I think it'll depend on how big the markets dip and the amount of reduced spending as a result of lowered wealth effects. The top 10% being responsible for over 50% of consumer spending isn't a random factoid. Retaliatory tariffs from other countries might worsen impact, but it seems admin is banking on our consumers solving other countries problems. The admin has a few years to tinker on compliance with a naughty nice list. Our trade deficits will still be nasty this year because that's how the system is currently set up. I also have no thoughts on Fed policy and whether they're in line with what Trump is intending, which makes the above useless in isolation.
Talking 4700 on S&P for Monday. But, maybe a Trump Vietnam deal tweet can counteract some of the next 5% drop day? That would be the bottom to me. I think that's when institutional investors start getting back in because valuations become just too attractive at that point.
Will use a hypothetical. For this House Brand Store Brand Private Label are the same thing. Retailers try to offer a cheaper alternative to Name Brands when possible. If a Retailer (Aldi, Walmart, Costco, Amazon etc) is told by the current manufacturer that the cost of a Private Label Widget delivered to their Distribution Centers will now be $30 because of Tariffs, the Retailer will be tempted to shop around to see if they can get the Private Label Widget for less than $30 from another manufacturer. If a company can profitably make a Private Label Widget in the US and deliver it to the Retailer's Distribution Centers for $27 why should the manufacturer quote the Retailer $27 when the alternatives for the Retailer are at $30? If the Manufacturer stays informed about his competition (foreign and domestic), then he should have a fairly good idea that he can get the contract for $29 @ Widget. Whether the Widget is foreign or domestic made, the price to the Retailer has gone up and the Retailer will very likely be forced to raise the retail price of the Widget. In some instances, Tariffs will make USA made products competitive with foreign and it won't be enough for other items.
