It's going to be a literal bloodbath tomorrow. I don't know when it's going to be safe to return. Tomorrow is just the 1st shoe to drop. Once earnings start and one of the mag7 misses, it's shoe number 2. I think I'll have to get back in in stages. You can't pick top and you can't pick bottom so it's best to average in. I just don't know if stage one is EOD tomorrow.
You have to think it's intentional, for some subset of his buddies / supporters that are quietly, mysteriously making huge bank as they know what dumb tariffs will get put in place when, and when they will be modified / removed. EDIT: LOL @ futures right now.
They 100% pumped yesterday....grabbed puts...and waited for him to dump it. I should have bought some lottery tickets (puts) for shts/giggles..
Nah, 40% I put into something called: KGPF - I didn't have many options. I'd put 10% back in today if I wasn't too scared to look at the other 60% :-(
And we haven't even started fighting Israel's war with Iran for them yet. AI depleting job options. But it's okay, we created 4 jobs at Honda in peepeetown, AL. Man it's gonna be BAD. These are ALL bangers -> @tinman thank you - very helpful
Assuming the tariffs stick then this is likely the beginning of the end for globalization as we know it. China has been in the crosshairs for most of the non-Israel foreign policy and now they get slammed with cumulative tariffs. The EU would seem to have major issues as well going forward and they seem poised to counterattack. Other nations seem ready to negotiate. It will be interesting to watch how this unfolds but the market seems primed to keep selling with this momentum. My feeling is the admin will possibly agree to bilateral deals with other Asian nations ex China to put even more pressure on China going forward. We have pretty solid support in the 420 range on QQQ and mega support at 400. DIA would seem to be the leader going forward and looks much safer overall with 370-380 being great buy spots. SPY is middle of the road between DIA and QQQ and 480 would be a nice buy spot with 460 being very solid support. My feeling is this repricing gets done quickly and in a disorderly fashion. We've been levitating at high valuations for awhile so I'd assume there will be some overshoot to the downside. I would assume the market rotates away from the QQQ trade and into DIA components going forward.
If the market and economy continues the way it has the midterms will be a blood bath for the current party. So don't think the current path forward will work.
I have not had the fortitude to even look at my 401K which has performed well over the past decade. Some of ya`ll are way smarter than I on this issue, is the best way forward to ride this out or has anyone pulled all the way out until the next midterms. I only have 10 friggin years left to retirement and I am afraid this will have REAL consequences.
DCA it could go down more but in 5-10-15 years it will go up. This is when you get rich but when prices are low.
It’s possible they reverse course but Bessent made comments prior to the inauguration that were very blunt about the transition they wanted. I don’t think they mind a recession if it means getting rates lower. Bilateral deals are the easiest way to reverse course from my point of view. The economy has been in a precarious spot for a couple years now even though we’ve been cruising along with high valuations in the market and watching various bubbles inflate. Unusually high deficit spending and govt hiring has been helping to hold things together and my feeling was a disruption to this would cause significant side effects. Instead of minor changes we get a plan that blows up the global order and Trump said he was going to do it but no one believed him I guess. I’m glad I’ve been 50% in cash but the trouble is figuring out when to act. Patience is the key here and this could be a covid level event. Meaning extremely sharp repricing with panic of the unknown. It’s worth reading these snippets from a Russell Napier interview from back in December. He has been spot on so far and he highlights fractures in the global monetary system that have been going on prior to the Trump admin smashing it. text of full interview there https://themarket.ch/interview/russ...ards-a-system-of-national-capitalism-ld.12718 edit: as a caveat I wouldn’t look to own the equities he mentioned until the market correction is done. His point about not owning bonds after the correction is done is probably the most important to note. As well as the overall structure of where the global economy is heading I’ve got more thoughts I’m working through on this but man I wish I was a full time trader still. This market must be amazing to trade.
Covid correction was 30% we are already down about 20%. Of course valuations are still pretty high. Trying to time the market is pretty hard. Just put a little every week or month and over the longterm I am good.
Those of us close to retirement, Donald Trump just took a huge **** in your living room. Unbelievable that MORONS voted for this ****WIT ! Manufacturing jobs are not coming back to the USA, they are lower paying jobs and will most likely be taken by robotics.... The DUMBASSERY of this country continues to astound me. DD
