EARLY WARNING: Jalen Green WILL NOT play well with 2 non-shooters on the floor

Do you think that lineup would actually work right now? Tari and JSJ tend to have issues right now playing together when JSJ isn't playing center.

 

I've always been of the opinion that in an ideal world where Jalen doesn't massively improve, he would do best coming off the bench long. But as it currently stands, the Rockets really lack offensively capable players. Especially with FVV turning into a pumpkin. So I think this would work best if the Rockets can pull a trade for a big time scorer like a KD or Booker.

 

It is all rearranging the furniture - because the Rockets lack a top level creator/facilitator.

The Rockets and their coaching staff do a good job of winning and competing with what they have, but ultimately when you run into teams that have an elite level creator/facilitator, it is difficult to win. The Rockets ran into a team with two of those players in the Lakers. The Rockets played as hard or harder than the Lakers, they defended hard - but at the end of the day, the Lakers have Doncic and LBJ to create and the Rockets don't have anyone like that.

 

FVV has turned into a non-shooter this season. Jalen has never been a great shooter to begin with.

So you have 4 non-shooters in our starting lineup. LOL.

 

We've had opposing team commentators say the same thing about Green or Sengun when they closed out games making big offensive plays and their team didn't. Like I remember the Jazz and Blazers commentators say this.

We've seen guys like Green close out games in more dramatic ways than what Luka or LeBron did last night. They did pretty "meh" last night.

Last night was a problem of Ime being too cute on offense and going away from what has been working for weeks.

This team gets too addicted to "hunting mismatches" where the moment someone like Brooks is switched on a slightly below average defender, it's drilled into our guys to dump the ball to Dillon and iso Dillon. It breaks offensive flow.

In closing situations the Rockets need to a go to a base offensive package they can run in their sleep. And that to me is the Green Alpi pnr dho game. That should be the offense that is consistently ran in the fourth quarter in tight games as that consistently gets good offensive looks. It seems like the other guys on the court also know where to move and when to cut when those two operate their two man game. A lot of open looks are generated from that two man game and seems like the most obvious base offensive set to spam in the fourth. But Ime just goes away from it and I honestly don't know why.

But Ime always tries to be cute and goes away from what works in our offense

This team goes on offensive cold spells when their is no hierarchy and the team starts doing things like feeding Dillon iso possessions. There is still no offensive identity to this team because Ime is reluctant to just hand the keys to the young guys.

Fred and Dillon are still taking up too many offensive possessions preventing guys like Jalen or Amen getting into a offensive flow.

 

lol the fanbase of excuses

Cade and Ant are surrounded by 4 elite shooters right?

Amen and Alpi not making excuses its on them.. not on their teammates, coach, or opponents

 

If that's true, then maybe he should be traded for a guard who fits better alongside Amen and Alpi, who contribute in a myriad of ways and whose overall value is higher.

The truth is, Jalen has always been in love with the jump shot, has always taken 55 to 60% of his shots as 3Pers or middies. It doesn't have much to do with Amen's addition to the starting lineup really, he's played like this his entire career. If he can knock them down at a higher rate, he fits just fine with Sengun and Thompson. They're more valuable players than he is overall, so it's on Jalen to fit with them, not the other way around.

 

Disagree. Amen and Sengun are the reason why Jalen Green is on a list like this:


That is inexcusable and definitely harms Green's efficiency.

 

Also Amen is more valuable defensively but there is no planet in where Amen is more valuable than Green offensively.

 

I gotta say, I don't really understand this post. I feel like Green has been pretty excellent next to Amen and Sengun. Amen became a fulltime starter in January, and in the 33 games the two have played together since then, Green has averaged 22.4/4.4/4 since while shooting .38 from 3. That's not too shabby. In that period, he had a 42 point game against Memphis, and thirteen 25+ point games (8 of which were against likely playoff teams).

 

Alperen Sengun
VORP: 3.7
BPM: 4.4
WS: 8.0
LEBRON WAR: 5.99

Amen Thompson
VORP: 3.1
BPM: 3.8
WS: 7.5
LEBRON WAR: 4.83

Jalen Green
VORP: 1.7
BPM: 0.7
WS: 5.2
LEBRON WAR: 4.03

You keep reposting the same list as if it is more important than a wide swathe of other data. Whether Alpi and Amen's non-shooting are harming Jalen's efficiency or not, they're still more valuable players, as illustrated by virtually every advanced stat. By most metrics the gap is far too wide for there to be any other reasonable explanation.

 

Yup if every game the team has to find out who is "the guy" game in and game out, there will never be offensive flow. There will always be disconnect, guys in the wrong spots, confusion etc.

Other tasks when their main guys are struggling they just don't magically go away from them in the fourth. One needs to learn that with Green. Don't make him passive. Empower him. He's gone through the trials of earning minutes through effort and work now it's time to reward him with a basic level of trust.

If the team knows what the hierarchy is entering the fourth, less time wasting possessions figuring out what to do.

 

I watch the sport.

Your advanced stat dump is the terminating end point of your argument due to you not being able to explain the statistical models used. Therefore you expect to just end the convo here? That's it? You just dump some advanced stats you don't understand how they are derived and call it a day?

 

I think the issues with Alpe is more the whining to the refs, being hesitant and careless outside of the inner paint (restricted area).......than the shooting.

 

So do I, and my "eye test" also agrees with the data here. There are games when Jalen absolutely goes off and just takes over and looks like the best player on the floor, but 4 out of 5 times that's not the case. Opposing defenses orient everything they do around stopping Sengun from getting deep into the paint, and Amen with his activity, athleticism, and length has his fingerprints on seemingly every play on both ends.

 

Nah there is no eye test on your part. Especially when you bring up what the opposing team defenses gameplan for.

Sengun's gravity is very situation dependent. It's specifically when he's posting up. Green's gravity is more omnipresent. Face guarding off ball. Denying the ball off screens, hedging multiple defenders to guard Green's potential driving lanes when he does have the ball and ignoring someone like Amen at the three point line...

There is no alternate reality where Amen is more game planned for by the opposing team's defensive game planning than Jalen. Come on dude. You think those gravity numbers from bball index are made up?

NBA has optical motion tracking with the dozens of cameras pointed at the court and paid services like Bball index can to the centimeter determine things like average distance between defenders and a specific offensive player at any given time using said data. These gravity stats aren't out of thin air. The top 10 seems all really valid expect Green is the outlier and that's because we have two non shooting threats with high level high minute roles on this team.

 

Man, whatever. All your eggs are in this one basket, and that's fine, go with it if you want. I see no reason to keep going in circles with you. It's not like I'm somebody determined to hate on Jalen Green, we just disagree somewhat on his overall current/future expected value.

To be clear, I do consider Jalen to be "a shooter" now. Not a great shooter, but good enough to space the floor. He's shown solid improvement and his 3P volume does inch upward every year. If I'm Stone, I'm happy to give him another year to work and see where he's at.

I'm also not sure whether Alpi and Amen are long-term fits together, but that has little to do with Jalen, other than you could wish he was more efficient from three. It's more just that it's hard to have two non-shooters on the floor at the same time in the NBA in general--they're hurting each others' production more than they are Jalen's, who can at least take advantage of an open look.

But again, I want to give it another year and see what kind of progress they make on their shooting (especially Amen given what he's already shown).

 

Even if I accept this hypothesis (and I don't think we have enough data to justify assuming it is true, just small sample size stretches and anecdotal eye tests from the biggest JG fans on the forum), it still doesn't change the equation for what we should do. Jalen may or may not perform better individually in lineups without Amen or Sengun, but the team overall performs worse because we're giving up too much passing, rebounding, defense, rim finishing, etc. We essentially have no choice but to play the way we've been playing because our backcourt is thin and lacks elite shooters and our best two players are both non-shooters.

This is something we definitely need to address in the off-season by adding at least one shooter, it's something Stone should have addressed at the deadline, but no use crying over spilt milk.