Spoiler: Snake Diggit's 2025 Astros Prospects: Grade 45 (23-61) Grade 45 (bench players, middle relievers, AAAA guys, or legit prospects with extreme ceiling/floor): P Jose Fleury: Fleury is the classic Astros development gem, but I have not been that impressed with him. I think he has a big league future, but it’s likely in multi-inning relief or as a spot starter. P Logan VanWey: VanWey has a clear relief profile and will almost certainly contribute in the big leagues this season, but I view him as pretty limited as he doesn’t have overpowering stuff and struggles to limit walks. C/UT Jancel Villarroel: Villarroel dominated the complex leagues and held his own at 19 in A ball last year. He’s got a perfectly average hitter profile, which is great if he maximizes it and either sticks at catcher or can handle multiple other positions. But his body type probably limits his upside. Still, he’s one of the few Astros prospects that projects to hit for average. OF Pedro Leon: I’m finally backing off of Leon as a potential star player after years of rationalizing him as a late bloomer. I still think there’s room for him to become a Jose Siri level everyday caliber player, but at this point its very likely he will have strikeout issues and will never fully realize his tools. But he should still provide value as a bench player or fringe regular. IF Alberto Hernandez: He’s got believers (Dana Brown called him out for being an amazing fielder and Fangraphs rated him Houston’s #2 prospect last year), but he’s a 21 year old international prospect who posted a 67 wRC+ in A ball last season. He will have to show development as a hitter but if he does, he has potential as a defense-first everyday SS. OF Zach Cole: Persistent strikeout issues combined with injury history (Cole didn’t appear in any big league ST games) has his stock sliding. Despite an elite power/speed combo that makes him one of the highest ceiling prospects in the entire minor leagues, this is a make or break season for him. He needs to get healthy and show an ability to control his swing-and-miss or he could find himself released. OF Kenedy Corona: His presence on the 40 man roster is the biggest sign that Corona is a real prospect. Corona still has the potential to be an elite defensive CF with baserunning value and average power, but he’s coming off of 2 seasons struggling in AA. This season is make or break for him. C Miguel Palma: Palma has consistently produced offensively throughout his rise in the minors, and looks like he will probably be able to stick at catcher. He has a major ding for not being able to stay healthy, but it’s totally possible he could end up carving out a few years as a big league backup C. P Colby Langford: Lefty with a big fastball but spotty command. High ceiling as a potential closer or enigmatic MoR SP if he can improve command and refine his slider. P Matthew Linskey: Acquired for Grae Kessinger, Linskey is a giant 6’8” righty that Houston will try to level up. He gets a Dana Brown bump and it’ll be interesting to see if Houston tries him as a starter. IF Tommy Sacco Jr.: Sacco is a premium defensive infielder who looks like he’s going to be able to hit just enough. His stock is rising and despite limited athleticism, he’s posted 23 HR and 35 SB combined over the last 2 seasons. P Trey Dombroski III: big crafty lefty with 3 average or better offspeed pitches but a sub-par fastball. He seems to have had some bad luck, as his ERA has trailed his xFIP at every stop. I still have hope for a breakout into a MoR guy but for now he looks like a bulk RP or spot starter. P Alex Santos II: Santos features 3 average or better pitches with subpar command, but he is still just 23 and looked great in the Arizona Fall League. A shift to relief could land him in Houston as soon as this season, but Houston’s continued development of him as a SP is a good sign. He’s a high ceiling player, although he won’t be what Click dreamed of when he was drafted. P Alimber Santa: A classic flamethrower with triple digit heat and a walks problem, Santa was shifted to a relief role last season to evaluate him in front of the Rule 5 draft, in which he was luckily (for the Astros) not selected. He is a Rhiner Cruz/Jandel Gustave type who will get chances. P Michael Knorr: injuries have made it hard to get a feel for how good he is. He was a 3rd rd pick and Fangraphs had him as Houston’s #13 prospect last season, but other than a healthy k rate, I’m not seeing a ton of reasons for optimism. Which makes him the exact kind of prospect who will break out. P Ramsey David: 2024 draftee who came onto the radar over the spring. Throws high 90s. I predict at least 1 2024 pitcher draftee will reach AA this season amidst a Jake Bloss level breakout, and it could be David. P Cole Hertzler: 2024 draftee who came onto the radar over the spring. Throws high 90s. I predict at least 1 2024 pitcher draftee will reach AA this season amidst a Jake Bloss level breakout, and it could be Hertzler. P Bryce Mayer: 2024 was a TJS recovery year, so he could break out and show he was under-drafted big time. He will probably end up working in the upper 90s with his FB with plus slider and curve. One of the higher ceiling pitching prospects in the system. P Wilmy Sanchez: A stocky international sleeper pitching prospect, Sanchez got into a few big league spring games and looked really good. He’s already relegated to a relief role, so he’ll need to be a fast mover if he’s a real prospect, even though he’s only 20 and not Rule 5 eligible until 2026. But he had a very encouraging k rate last season, and he’s starting 2025 in AA, so he could reach Houston this season. OF Esmil Valencia: Valencia was my favorite signee in the Astros’ 2023 International class. His stock rose further in my eyes after he looked like he will stick in CF while playing in the FCL. The main question now is if he will develop enough power to be a good player. But he’s also one of the few prospects in the system who could hit for average. OF Quincy Hamilton: I believe Hamilton will make some team a fine 5th or 6th outfielder for 2-3 seasons. It probably won’t be the Astros. He’s a player that projects to have slightly below average big league skills across the board. He does bat lefthanded, which will give him more chances than others, but at 27, he is what he is. P Alonzo Tredwell: while Tredwell’s stock is way down from when he was drafted, there’s not a ton of reason for it, other than he didn’t pitch a full season last year. This is a big year for him and he need to stay healthy and reverse his trajectory. He’s one of those guys who has plus FB despite sitting low 90s because he’s 6’8”. He has a good curve and slider. I predict he will eventually move back to relief. OF Colin Barber: I once had Barber as the #1 overall prospect in the system after he crushed High A in 2022 and hit really well in AA as a 22 year old in 2023. But last season seemed to be proof of his worst risks: he can’t stay healthy, can’t play CF, and won’t develop enough power to play everyday in LF. But he got a good amount of run in big league games this spring and looked really good. He has hit 19 HR in his last 149 games, so it’s not like he has a total lack of power. But at this point he is a sleeper year-to-year prospect. I will say he (like Jancel Villarroel) is one of the few prospects in the system who has potential to hit for average. IF Pascanel Ferreras: The last pick in the 2023 draft reached AA in his first full season, and has defensive versatility and average power, but I view him as a very limited player. He’s not going to hit 25+ HR and he is unlikely to be able to handle SS or CF in the majors. A classic AAAA guy. LF/2B Yamal Encarnacion: Encarnacion is an odd prospect to evaluate. The org hasn’t seemed to make his development a priority, as he’s bounced around levels and not played consistently. But he consistently posts sub 20% k rates and has plus plus speed (39 SB this season). He finally had a sign of organizational belief when he was selected or the Breakout game this spring, and he could be a rich man’s Tony Kemp if all goes perfectly. IF Caden Powell: It is extremely likely that Powell will strike out too much to play major league baseball. But he has power potential that few prospects have. He could really bust out once he gets to Asheville but I have serious doubts he gets past AA. IF Jeron Williams: I came out of last season way high on Williams as a fast-rising sleeper. He had an under-the-radar 2024 where he showed plus infield defense with speed (26 SB) and enough power. However, he was limited to about half a season with injuries, then was nowhere to be found this spring, so I slid him back down the list. He has the build to get to slightly below average power and could really be a weapon. But he would need to be healthy to show it. C/1B Will Bush: I’m irrationally high on Bush as a power hitting lefthanded bat who might stick at catcher. C/1B Collin Price: He’s looked really good this spring and got assigned to AAA out of the gate. Big bodied guy who has always looked like he should hit for power but hasn’t.
Spoiler: Snake Diggit's 2025 Astros Prospects: Grade 40+ (62-90) Grade 40+ (interesting prospects who I can’t justify as 45s): P Luis Angel Rodriguez: Rodriguez has flashed some impressive stuff this spring, but at 25 and having never posted a season of 100+ innings, it’s probably time for him to shift to relief and get a shot in AAA to see if he can contribute. P Luis Rodriguez: The return in the Corey Julks trade looked amazing in the FCL before stumbling a bit in A ball. He’s a breakout candidate, and last year’s struggles could have been workload-related. P Ryan Verdugo: Verdugo hasn’t pitched as a pro yet after a 89 ip workload in college last year. But until proven otherwise, it looks like pretty much every pitching prospect drafted by Dana Brown and the Houston front office should be at least somewhere in the 40+ and above range until the prove otherwise. P Ryan Smith: Smith hasn’t pitched as a pro yet, but until proven otherwise, it looks like pretty much every pitching prospect drafted by Dana Brown and the Houston front office should be at least somewhere in the 40+ and above range until the prove otherwise. Smith is recovered from TJS. P Alain Pena: Another stocky international sleeper, Pena is still being developed as a SP. His k rate was not as impressive as Wilmy Sanchez’s but he could get to AA early this season. I don’t know a lot about his actual stuff. IF Waner Luciano: A lot of people thought Luciano would break out after being a complex league exit velo darling in 2023, but he fell completely apart in A ball and finished the season back in the complex. His pitch selection is bad and he doesn’t project to have much defensive value. But if he develops he could be a big league bench bat. P Twine Palmer: Above-slot sleeper taken at the end of last year’s draft. Big kid is only 20 so may be developed slowly. P Abel Mercedes: Triple digit heat, he is a Rhiner Cruz/Jandel Gustave type who will get chances. He is already relegated to relief so could move quickly if it clicks. P Parker Smith: Houston’s 2024 4th round pick out of Rice could be a fast mover. Sinker/slider guy up to 96 who the Astros think they can tinker with. P Misael Tamarez: High 90s heat and is firmly a pen arm now. You never know. 3B/IF Camilo Diaz: One of the top signees in the entire 2023 international class, Diaz is now out for the season with an injury after really struggling in the complex last season. Diaz has a very high ceiling, but has a long way to go. He looks destined for 3B and now will have a lost year. IF Cristian Gonzalez: Could shoot up the list if he looks good in Asheville and gets moved up to Corpus. He hasn’t played in 2 years after being labeled as one of the higher ceiling prospects in the system in 2023. IF Jesus Bastidas: A classic AAAA infielder. 3B/1B Austin Deming: Low ceiling corner infielder but put up decent numbers in High A last year OF Anthony Huezo: High ceiling teenage overslot draftee struck out way too much in complex ball last year. P Aaron Brown: Most guys in AAA get some shot in the majors. He looked really good in AA last year but doesn’t have elite stuff. P Joey Mancini: 2.12 era in 106.1 ip last year, most of it in AA. Don’t bet against the Astros pitching development. P Andrew Taylor: 2nd round pick has been disappointing so far. Make or break year. P Rhett Kouba: He’ll be in AAA so he has a shot. Rebound year after losing last year to injury; was on some Top 30 lists before that. IF German Ramirez: Looked pretty good in a few big league spring appearances. Big bonus kid from 2 years ago. P Joan Ogando: high 90s stuff P Hudson Leach: high 90s stuff P Omar Damian: biggest bonus pitcher in this year’s international class, could be a fast riser once he gets stateside. OF Ethan Wagner: overslot late round HS 2024 draftee P Brody Rodning: minor league free agent signee RP who is on the AAA roster, he’s got a shot to surprise. 1B/3B Luis Castro: Mexican league signee is most likely a non-prospect but he’s got some power. OF Logan Cerny: tantalizing power/speed combo with cemented strikeout issues. IF/C Luis Encarnacion: one of the few prospects in the system who could hit for average C/1B John Garcia: a good year in High A but was old for the level. IF Ryan Johnson: very few players overcome posting a 41% k rate across 400+ pa in High A ball at 23. But he was promoted to AA to start this season and has power potential and defensive value. P Derek True: Seemed like he had some bad babip luck last year, decent k/bb rates in the lower levels P Jose Guedez: Decent k rate in High A but too many walks P Raimy Rodriguez: had some helium after being assigned to full season ball at 18 but that 8 bb/9 hurts. Will repeat A ball. P Blake Weiman: Will be in the AAA pen so he has a shot. OF Cesar Hernandez: former big bonus int’l signee didn’t look very good last year but has tools. P Dylan Howard OF/IF Tyler Whitaker: hasn’t been able to close the hole in his swing but still has power/speed combo OF Cam Fisher: Power/speed combo but too many strikeouts P Jayden Murray: part of the return in the Siri/Mancini trade, been hurt for most of the last 2 years. Was a decent prospect before the trade.
Spoiler: Snake Diggit's 2025 Astros Prospects: Grade 40/35 (91-120) and everybody else Grade 40/35 (High floor guys ticketed to top out at AAA/AA or high ceiling kids with too much risk to justify a higher grade): P Nic Swiney: minor league Rule 5 draftee P Nic Swanson: middling numbers and is already 25, but don’t bet against Astros Dev P Tyler Guilfoil: stock kind of down, I’d like to see him move to the pen and get up to AAA P Yeriel Santos: sleeper prospect moved up to High A this season, has had walk issues in the past P Anderson Bido: plucked from Colorado in minor league Rule 5, looked really good in AA last year. P Alejandro Torres: short dominance in High A followed by mediocrity in AA. P Railin Perez: early relief track is a ding but has posted healthy k rates IF Drew Vogel: Murray St. product stole 10 bases in 22 games last year and moves up to High A. IF Max Holy: 17 SB in 22 G last season in A ball was eye opening. P Edinson Batista: good slider with weak FB, probably needs to move to BP in AA. P Manuel Urias: good k/bb rates in High A but still got hit hard; already 24 C/1B Ryan Wrobleski: He’s already come further than any 20th round pick with a $30k bonus would expect. P Julio Rodriguez: A plus FB/CB kid with weak command, another minor league Rule 5 pick P Dawil Almonte: RP prospect in A ball bullpen at 23 IF Alejandro Nunez: has some speed with some middle infield defense but overall a non-prospect OF/IF Cristopfer Gonzalez: Super lanky DSL kid with power potential that hinges entirely on how his body fills out C Jason Shiavone: 2024 11th rounder has power potential but k risk IF Anthony Sherwin: was an average High A hitter with a high k rate at 22 but he got moved up to AA. OF Luis Rives: big bonus OF looks like he’ll repeat FCL C Garret Guillemette: pretty disappointing first pro season and he’ll repeat High A; healthy walk rate and double digit HR power with solid defense but needs to work on swing and miss OF/1B Jose Gonzalez: UDFA college OF with some power will start out in High A. P Sandy Mejia: great k rate as a 20 yo in A ball but starting the season in the complex after walk problems IF Jack Blomgren: had great numbers when he’s played but is always hurt; minor league Rule 5 pick P Jean Pinto: Plus slider/changeup RP prospect, another minor league Rule 5 pick; he’s recrovering from surgery OF/1B Eduardo Perez: Touted elite power but DSL k rate that points to nowhere. IF Sandro Pereira: has had 2 productive seasons in DSL but not sure if he came to Florida this offseason. P Nolan DeVos: 2 lost seasons to injury P Grant Burleson P Brett Gillis: finally looks like he’ll pitch, was assigned to High A. P Amilcar Chirinos: can throw upper 90s Grade 35/30 (Release candidates and super high risk prospects): C: Fernando Caldera, Carlos Cauro, Kedaur Trujillo, Andrew Sosa, Arturo Flores, Alexi Quiroz, Diego Campos IF: Trevor Austin, Narbe Cruz, Lucas Spence, Wilton Lara, Hector Salas, Samuel Brito, Franchely Silverio, Darwin De Leon OF: Oliver Carrillo, Anthony Millan, Amauri Ramirez, Bryce Boettcher, Justin Trimble, Ariel Lebron, Frailin Yan, Karniel Pratt P: Cole McDonald, Ray Gaither, Walker Brockhouse, Julio Marte, Engel Daniel Peralta, Rafael Gonzalez, Juan Nunez, Juan Soto, Joey Dixon, Ryan Mathieson, Ben Petsche, Danny Trehey, David Landeta, Francisco Frias, Anthonly Cruz, Jesus Carrera, Franklin Gil, Antony Aparicio, Eurys Martich, Jose Varela, Jagger Beck There are about 70 other prospects in the system that are not on this list. They are almost all guys in the Dominican complex, ones I know absolutely nothing about, other than what might be available via DSL stats.
He was in there, 4th in the grade 45 section: "OF Pedro Leon: I’m finally backing off of Leon as a potential star player after years of rationalizing him as a late bloomer. I still think there’s room for him to become a Jose Siri level everyday caliber player, but at this point its very likely he will have strikeout issues and will never fully realize his tools. But he should still provide value as a bench player or fringe regular."
Nice work on this, I appreciate reading your thoughts on prospects. Gelof rookie season and his past seasons are probably a reasonable range of outcomes for Matthews. Matthews is probably a better athlete, so there's a chance of real stardom. In his brief stint at AAA, he actually made a solid amount of contact. 8% swinging strike rate is well above average. He took a lot of strikes which sabotaged his production. I would like to see what Whitcomb could do if a team would dedicate an everyday spot to him. It doesn't seem as if that team will be the Astros. Prior to spring training, I had similar expectations for he and Dezenzo, with Whitcomb's defense and baserunning potential possibly making up for Dezenzo's power ceiling. Statcast loved what he did in the majors, and whatever he did to improve his contact ability seemed like it translated just fine. He didn't have a great spring, but it never really seemed like he was in contention. He plays a lot of infield for someone who the GM thinks is an OF apparently. I don't find it that strange that Astros don't seem very high on him, but I do kinda wonder why a fringe contender didn't offer a bullpen arm or prospect good enough to see what he could do.
Great posts, very informative. I've got Gomez as prospect #4. Probably has as much variance and potential as Matthews. Matthews should be rated higher because he's reached AAA in record time.
Jaworsky, Gomez, and Brito are the 3 guys poised to take huge leaps if they play well in the first half of the season. Bello could also be in that group. Really hoping at least one of those guys blossoms into a legit MLB Top 75 type prospect this season. One crazy thing is that Janek is the only prospect in the top 9 on my list who won’t graduate this year if they all play well. With how much of the top talent is stacked in the upper levels, there will be a crazy amount of turnover and change on this list over the course of this year.
Trying to think of who Brito reminds me of. Not too many 5’10” 155 lb guys out there throwing 99 as a SP in MLB. Maybe like Yordano Ventura? I can’t find a SP among last years leaderboards under 6’0” whose FB averaged above 94. Brito is only 20 so imagine if there’s one last growth spurt. If he gets up to the 6’1” 190 lb range by 23-24 he could be an absolute monster on the mound.
This comp isn't related to performance at all, but more about body type similarity. I see a slightly smaller Spencer Strider. For as light as Brito's official weight is, it looks like he has pretty strong and big legs. Bigger than what you normally see in pitchers that size. Looks like he does a good job generating power from his lower half and not being a violent thrower of the ball. Strider is only 6', so not much taller, but is much more dense at 195lb.
Cowboys come back in the 9th and win it. Short with a 2 run homer for the tie. Matthew's with the single to score Price to end it.
