Time for this annual thread, which can be used to house all Astros-specific discussion that doesn’t warrant its own thread and doesn’t belong in the game thread. To start, I really like the lineup last night, and to repeat a comment I just made in another thread: every player in last night’s lineup has a chance to be a 3-win, well-above average player, and all 4 bench guys have a chance to be elite in their roles. Not many teams can boast that kind of depth.
I like the lineup from last night, but i'm not sold that Rodgers will be able to do much with the bat I wish Paredes would have got a little work at 2B this spring, cause I think ultimately our best lineup would have him at 2B, Cam at 3B and Dezenzo in RF I love the fact that the additional depth we have frees Dubon up to be a true Utility player. He is one of the better players in the league in that role but we have been forced to play him more as a starter the last couple of years
I agree that Rodgers is the most questionable of all the starting position players. The good news is that ~150 pa of regular playing time should render a final verdict, and even if he doesn’t pan out, his defense is good enough that he is very unlikely to be a Jose Abreu style millstone. My conspiracy is that Dana Brown is just buying time to let Brice Matthews put up 6 weeks of dominance in AAA. But Dubon is not a bad insurance policy and all this goes without mentioning Whitcomb or a reconfiguration that installs Paredes at 2B. So the fact that Rodgers is looking like the weakest link is pretty encouraging.
Paredes played 3rd base. Rodgers played 2nd base. I saw nothing wrong with either, though I did see special at 3rd.
I have to wonder how long the leash will be with Rodgers. He was brought in on the hopes that something could be fixed, not based on any concrete results he has gotten. 2 games doesn't mean too much of anything, but I am curious what plan B is. Is it Paredes, is it Dubon, or will they just move Altuve back and accept the poor range. I imagine the real hope is that we are just stalling for Matthews.
Rodger's issues were ground balls. Hard contact wasn't. They are trying to get him to lift the ball. We will see
My guess is he gets minimum 15-20 games before they even start to re-assess. Options for next move if Rodgers ain’t it: 1. A mix of Guillorme/Dubon. 2. Matthews. 3. Whitcomb. 4. Paredes to 2B, Cam/Dezenzo to 3B/RF 5. Altuve back to 2B, Dezenzo/McCormick to LF
Anyone worried about Alvarez? He's starting out so slow. He was pretty horrible in Spring training also.
No one should be worrying about any hitter until they’ve had at least 50 plate appearances of healthy consistent playing time in the regular season, and even at that point we should only worry about high k rates. It takes well over a hundred plate appearances to establish any kind of meanginful sample for any stat beyond k rate. Meyers and Altuve are the only 2 hitters with a Babip that isn’t deflated.
Walk rate stabilizes around the same time as K rate- doesn’t it? So- lack of walks is a worry point along the same time high k percentage is- I think. After that yeah- some stats take half a year seemingly to stabilize.
Walk rate takes a little longer (120 pa) than k rate (50pa), allegedly. https://library.fangraphs.com/principles/sample-size/
Adding to this, it’ll probably be about 30-40 games before we can assess whether Rodgers FB rate has changed significantly from previous seasons.
I would be pretty satisfied if Houston was sitting at 17-13 at the end of April. They should do well the 2nd half of April as the get Angels, Cards, Padres, Jays, Royals, Tigers, all teams they should favored against.
I guess I shouldn’t be too surprised, but it just seems odd that I can’t find many sites who predict even 1 90-game winner in the AL. 2025 will be very competitive with no clear favorite in the AL, at least right now it appears. The AL East is going to be a blood bath, and the West and Central look equally competitive from top to bottom, minus 1-2 outliers like CWS. It’ll be interesting to see how this year develops. I think HOU is at the tail end of having just enough star power that we *should* be safely above .500, but the gap is clearly lessening across the league. Every team is talented and seems like tanking may actually be a thing of the past for 90% of the MLB. Injuries will play a big part this year. As will the trade deadline. Our offense, pitching, and bullpen should be above average. Defense should as well But I’m a bit hesitant given that 2/3 of our outfield have no significant reps there. Interest early season storylines to follow: Rodgers lotto ticket; Cam’s development; Do any of Chas/Jake/Zach separate for non-platoon ABs; Pitching health/consistency; Do any non-Framber pitchers take leap into bonafide SP1-3. If any of these hit then we will miraculously continue this unpredicted run
