Jake Meyers quietly and casually leading position players in fWAR. Who had that on their Spring bingo card?
A Jeremy Pena level 3-4 win season is totally possible from Jake. He just needs to avoid a slump/injury and be strategically deployed (I.e. rested against the right pitchers).
At Daikin, LF is short, so less risk than RF. Both Altuve and Cam need reps, so that isn’t a differentiating factor. I think the biggest factor is where we were in the order. Chaz coming in for Cam in the top of the 8th guaranteed Chaz would get an AB in the bottom of the 8th. I think Espada wanted to do something for Chaz to keep his chin up.
My thoughts on game 1 only 1 game, but. . . 1) defensive corner outfield play will be an adventure for a while but should be fine by August-September. 2) The renewed swing discipline looks to be taking hold. 3) Astros still scored early then didn't add on. 4) Abreu and Hader need to pretend every hitter is Lindor and/or Soto - and pitch like it. 5) It's way too early ( and the bullpen depth weakened by injury) for your 2 best relievers to throw that many pitches and have a 3rd guy warm up 3 different times in a single game. That hurts Friday and/or Saturday. 6) Walker and Paredes are as advertised. Astros may have best infield defense and corner infield offense in the league. 7) Jake Meyers off to another good start ( and against a RHP). Can he maintain it longer this year? 8) Framber is Framber. Gonna miss that guy. 9) Cam Smith should be OK, but spring training Cam Smith probably traveled back from 2027. 10) I still don't think Pena belongs in the middle of a lineup. 11) It's hard to win in MLB. A win is a win, and it is good.
I'm not gonna hold my breath. He was even better opening day last year. But it is still better than sucking.
Agreed. I know we've been hated by national media since the scandal, but it's shocking to me to see how many national sports media organizations picked the Astros to not win the division. Sure, the Rangers or Mariners could win. But we're seen as the underdogs now, not the favorites. Honestly, though, I kinda like being in that position of not going into the season with massive expectations. If we won the division with 88-90 wins, it would be seen as a massive success whereas that would been a letdown 3-4 years ago.
this might've been addressed a billion times, but after that hard crash against the wall in 22 or 23? Do you think affected his swing/approach at the plate? I can't remember what he was batting pre that shoulder injury. edit: Jake Meyers i meant
I'm optimistic about Pena and Cam. Pena isn't swinging at sliders 2 feet off the plate which has always been his Achilles heel. For Cam, I obviously don't expect an OPS over 1.000, but what made me think he was ready was that he seldomly swings at bad pitches. His ability to identify good pitches to swing at is probably the best on the team from what I've seen. Kind of like a mix between Bregman and Alverez's approach. Bregman's identification and Alvarez's plate discipline. He doesn't fight off pitches at the edge of the zone like Bregman. He just doesn't bother swinging at them like Alvarez.
Houston’s rotation is really really underrated. For how good he’s been, few people outside Houston would probably say Valdez is the best ace in the division with Gilbert and DeGrom. And Brown wouldn’t be in the same conversation as guys like Eovaldi, Castillo, and Kirby for best #2. Nobody thinks anything of Blanco, Arrighetti, or McCullers at this point; Fangraphs projects just 3.8 TOTAL fwar between those 3 guys, and if they don’t blow that out of the water then Houston probably will have had a very disappointing season. So I think that’s the main area that will stand out as the thing the projections got wrong.
I definitely think the surgery affected Meyers’ throwing arm. His arm was merely average, maybe slightly below that before he got hurt. Now it’s well below average. I am not sure how the injury affected his hitting. His average EV in 2021 was 89.5, then after he got hurt it was 86-88 over the next 3 seasons. His barrel % also dropped by half. So he definitely was a weaker hitter after he got hurt, it’s just hard to say if that was because of the injury or because pitchers figured him out or because he didn’t play consistently or some other reason. I will say one other thing that is totally unscientific: Meyers became a dad at the end of last season. That changes some men dramatically and especially pro athletes, sometimes for better sometimes for worse. Reading way too much into Meyers’ demeanor and interviews over the last 3 years, I think he’s the kind of guy that fatherhood will help tremendously, as it will help him keep baseball in perspective and stay more in the moment. So Jake may yet be due for a breakout. Not a prediction. Totally unsubstantiated opinion.
I think the injury to Meyers hurt his career greatly. When Meyers made the Astros and was getting playing time, it was a culmination of literally years of work and adjustments to his swing and approach to optimize his strengths and limit or mask his weaknesses. The injury greatly impacted his arm strength. His arm before the injury wasn't consistent. At times it was average and at other times it was above average. His power and ability to turn on balls changed as well. I am not claiming that he would have been a star or even a very good player but I am convinced he would have been better than he has been. He likely would have been similar to Josh Byrnes with the bat, where he would have a 4-5 year run of 110-115 OPS+ offense with stellar defense and a decent arm. I personally would love Meyers for the next 3-4 years as a cheap back up outfielder that doesn't get more than 250 at bats a year but covers a lot of ground in CF and isn't a complete loser at the plate.
When Meyers came up, he wasn't a great hitter but he was a good enough hitter to punish a fastball straight down the middle. We haven't seen that since the injury. Maybe we'll get lucky like Arlington 2 seasons ago and everyone will have close to career years all at the same time. I do think Myers looks better this year. I don't need him to be good with a bat. I just want him to be average with a bat.
Jake's career OPS by month: March/April .729 May .858 June .606 July .593 August .643 September/October .607 Based on the numbers, we should start him in the middle of the lineup at the beginning of the season, then bench him immediately once the calendar rolls into June.
