Paging BimaThug: How much cap space can we have if we decline FVV, trade Cam/Reed?

If the Rockets don't re-sign FVV, then they can just keep/re-sign their fillers like Adams, Holiday, Landale for S&T reasons. If they keep FVV then their options are pretty limited. Because if they keep these other salary flotsams for trade purposes, they're not going to have enough under the luxury tax for a full MLE player.

My guess is that the Rockets re-sign FVV for something in the $20+mil range, use the full MLE, perhaps keep some of the vets on smaller contracts (most notably I think they like Adams), and then try stuff at the deadline.

Either way, the Rockets chances at real capspace this offseason went up in smoke the moment they gave Sengun and Jalen extensions.

 

for draft picks, eh?!!

 

Turner will be a fine add wherever he goes. And he’s almost definitely going to be an SnT.

 

I think the Rockets won't use the MLE unless someone really good is willing to sign for it or can be traded into it. I think the Rockets want as much flexibility as possible with the aprons. Being below the 1st apron allows the Rockets to take back 125% of salary instead of 110%.

 

Except for the contract. He is gong to demand a multi-year contract and will want to be a starter.

 

The Rockets aren't hitting the 1st apron with full MLE player and FVV on a contract in the $20~25mil range. I was actually calculating based on the luxury tax threshold, which is lower than the 1st apron, and the Rockets still won't hit that. Basically the MLE, which will start at a bit less than $15mil next year, is what Landale and Jeff Green makes this year. It's really not that much money. If the Rockets aren't spending the MLE on an actual rotation player, then they better have a superstar trade coming in that will bloat that capspace, or it will just mean Tilman being cheap.

 

Depends on how we perform in the playoff...if we get swept in the first round, then you'll see some major changes

 

I haven't done the exact math in a while. My earlier work suggested that FVV around $25M would be close enough that the Rockets wouldn't be able to sign MLE and then trade ~$40M for ~$50M in salaries, for which they would need to stay under the 1st apron. I don't remember my assumptions.

I think leaving open the possibility of trading for a superstar and it not happening is not cheap.

 

@baubo. There is no way FVV signs for 20m even for multiple years. Unless he has some back room deal to be a coach afterward, he is going to demand 30M+. It really comes down to whether the Rockets are going to go after Durant or another max player. If they are they will simply pick up his option and trade him to match salaries probably for Durant. We aren’t getting Booker unless we send back Jalen plus filler and 4-5 picks. I think Stone and Ime love Jalen and see him and Amen as our future backcourt if not next year, soon thereafter. and I agree with them. I don’t think Sengun is as big a lock to be on the Rockets 2 years from now as Jalen. Durant would be an Ime approved addition and he would probably be willing to jilt his favorite for him.

 

The salaries don't match 110% as Durant's contract would make the Rockets a 1st apron team.

My recollection is that dealing Brooks and contracts for Durant and re-signing FVV to a ~25M contract will leave the Rockets with about the same roster if the Rockets deal contracts to others such that the FVV for Durant works under the 1st apron (I think there was 1 non-rotation player difference). Notable exception being the Rockets have FVV as a PG instead Brooks.

 

my big concern with a Amen Jalen backcourt is obviously shooting. Jalen would have to become an above league average long range shooter for that to work in my opinion.

 

Yes, you're right. If the Rockets sacrifice getting any good players in the offseason in order to keep all their filler salaries, then they won't have room for MLE player. But any team that wants to compete would prefer to get actual good players instead bad ones on the same amount of money. That's why I wrote the caveat that if the Rockets forgo using their MLE, then they need a star trade lined up. Otherwise, they would just be keeping a bunch of crappy players who don't contribute to winning for no good reason.

Besides, signing an MLE player doesn't preclude him from being traded at the deadline. Especially if the contract length is 1-2 years.

 

Don't know about Stone, but if FVV is asking for $30+mil for multiple years, I'd rather just let him go.

 

My concern is that a lot of teams may not be able to take back salary of the MLE (or not want to) such that the Rockets would have to deal a 1st round pick to trade a player signed with the MLE to a thrid team with an MLE available. The Rockets have to really want a guy with the MLE to use it.

 

and that changes him being an SnT? How?

 

Gotta maintain flexibility, it's the only way.

 

This is the way.

 

cannot argue v reason

 

All of this is a bit jumping the gun - we need to see how this team performs in the playoffs before we start laying out plans for the offseason. A BIG part of our offseason is going to be about addressing issues that are going to get exposed in the playoffs.

The fact Houston didn't completely fall apart when Fred went out earlier this year(10-9 when Fred didnt play this year) is a sign that his contributions to the team are not as critical as they once were - and it will be telling to see how he performs in the playoffs because he has not been a good shooter in the regular season this year. I agree that negotiating a less lucrative contract is key in any case but it will also depend on what Fred is willing to accept(which is probably going to be market driven - are other people going to pay Fred what he wants?) and what alternatives we have if we can't agree on a contract for him.

Ultimately there is going to be some form of consolidation necessary this offseason so we are already operating in a world where we are going to be using those assets to do something in a trade - maybe pick up more picks, maybe upgrade in a position(I would think Jalen or Fred), maybe find more cost effective players to play similar roles on our current roster, etc.

FWIW, I have always been a fan of the idea of a stretch 5 player with rim defense to put alongside Sengun but I agree with another post above that Turner has long since dropped off as a rim defender although he is still a pretty good stretch 5. I wouldn't break the bank for him.