he "could" be... at this point, the Astros front office and coaching staff knows his abilities more than anybody and whether or not they feel that is the case will be reflected by the # of starts he may or may not get.
True. If Dezenzo is relegated to playing every 3rd or 4th day as the backup at just RF/LF/1B, then that’ll be a pretty big sign that the Astros don’t really think much of him. I don’t expect that to be the case. I expect him to play a lot, just not sure exactly where/how.
Are you not happy with the Parades/Smith/Wisnewski haul? It's a great haul for Tucker, how many times has Tucker finished in the top 5 in MVP voting?
Dezenzo will be the main backup at 3B/RF/LF/1B. Dubon will be the main backup at 2B/SS/CF. Chas looks like he's going to be the guy that's out.
Jose Altuve was never predicted to be an all star. Zach has shown out in spring training so I'm riding with him until such time demands I do not.
Provided he hits, I think that’s a safe bet. He will be a super-utility player spelling Walker, Paredes, Altuve, Smith and Alvarez when they are getting days off.
Dezenzo is a corner defender/ Dubon is an up the middle defender. There's a place for both guys to get lots of AB's.
I get what you are saying. But I think he’s going to be average or good with the bat. Like 100-120 ops plus for a career. I don’t think he’s a AAAA guy or a 4th OF but he could be a rich mans dubon at the plate with less defensive versatility but still a lot of it.
his spring was about as good as Cam’s and while Cam comes in with hype, he also hasn’t played much in the minors to truly establish a baseline. Not saying Dezenzo is great and Cam won’t be amazing, but his main competition for a spot at the moment is riding a hot streak with few proof points he’ll cut it in the majors. Regardless , most rookies struggle at some point and I think they’ll give Dezenzo a shot to see if they have an everyday MLBer if Cam falters.
Lot of hand wringing about PT with the same guys saying “it will work itself out”. That’s almost certainly the point. Fun to speculate. I think ZD gets 400 PA’s this year and Cam gets 550. If Melton ends ip with 250 plus this team probably had either a really good year or a really bad year as you should be able to count on the other 6 and Dubon sets a reasonable floor of guys don’t perform.
They really think that they can fix his swing and is willing to take a 2 million dollar gamble on it.
Upside/downside analysis from fangraphs projections, position players: Yordan Alvarez, 5.4 fwar: DOWNSIDE. Injury is the real risk here but any prolonged slump would also derail this projection. Isaac Paredes, 4.0: BOTH. Paredes could post well over the 25 HR in that projection. But any number of 4 or higher always includes significant downside. Jeremy Pena, 3.4: UPSIDE. Of course there’s risk, but I think there’s at least some meaningful potential for Pena to level up into 25+ HR territory. Christian Walker, 3.2: DOWNSIDE. There’s age decline risk in addition to injury/slump risk. Very little upside. Jose Altuve, 3.1: BOTH. Father Time comes for us all, but fangraphs projects Altuve for his worst season since 2013. Yainer Diaz, 3.0: UPSIDE. Diaz has age on his side and probably hasn’t had his career year yet. Jake Meyers, 2.1: UPSIDE. Meyers has very little downside as a defense-first player in his prime. And he technically still has the upside James Click bet so heavy on. Chas McCormick, 1.3: BOTH. He’s shown 3+ win upside, and this projection is based on only 300 pa. But he proved his downside last season. Mauricio Dubon, 1.2: NEITHER. At this point Doobie is what he is. Victor Caratini, 1.2: NEITHER. See above. Brendan Rodgers, 1.1: UPSIDE. The exit velo and defense says there’s a 3+ win player inside there somewhere. At such a low projection there’s not much downside. Zach Dezenzo, 0.3: UPSIDE. He certainly has potential to be a 3 win player with his power and speed. No downside with such a low projection. Cam Smith, 0.1: MASSIVE UPSIDE. There’s zero chance Houston would have promoted Smith if they thought there was any meaningful possibility he would be replacement level. The upside is massive. The Astros have several high upside guys in AAA in Jacob Melton, Brice Matthews, and Shay Whitcomb. All in all there appears to be quite a bit more upside than downside, which is great news considering they project to be the 8th best position player roster in the league as-is.
Upside/downside analysis from fangraphs projections, pitchers: Framber Valdez, 3.3: BOTH. Probably more downside with the propensity of injury, but he’s shown he can do better than these projections. Hunter Brown, 2.8: UPSIDE. Fangraphs projects him to regress in his age 26 season. Nah. Josh Hader, 1.5: DOWNSIDE. Was tempted to label this both because he’s shown he can be better, but as a 31 yr old RP, he’s got more downside. Ronel Blanco, 1.5: UPSIDE. Another projection that shows regression, Blanco has shown spurts of dominance that he might sustain longer now that he’s built up the innings. Spencer Arrighetti, 1.3: UPSIDE. He’s shown potential to far outperform such a meager expectation. Lance McCullers Jr., 1.2: BOTH. As always with Lance. Bryan Abreu, 1.2: DOWNSIDE. 3 years of declining k rate makes it likely his best year is behind him. Hayden Wesneski, 0.9: UPSIDE: Classic Astros outperforming profile. Luis Garcia, 0.7: TOO TOUGH TO CALL. But not a meaningful number anyway. The rest of the staff projects for mediocre numbers but there isn’t a ton of upside in RP. The upper minors features half a dozen or more arms who have upside to break in and post MoR #s (Ullola, Blubaugh, Pecko, Nezuh, etc.). Again, overall it looks like there’s more upside than downside here, which is good because they currently project to a mediocre 16th in the league.
Nothing wrong with that.... (although you probably don't want the list of players who had great springs but never did much after to be your only reason for having optimism). At this point, his playing time (or lack there of) is going to be based on the coaching staff and front office... and that is based on what they've been seeing day-in/day-out from him, regardless of numbers. Also Altuve mashed his way onto this team and earned that mid-season call up. He defied odds at every level and will be doing so on his way to the HOF. Saying anybody could have that trajectory is putting a little bit of a damper on the truly "special" ones.
The more people speculate or list more players as options for backups or split duty… the more it screams that we don’t know if they’re everyday players. Meyers, Chas, ZDZ, Rodgers, Dubon, Cam. That’s a quarter of the active roster with major ?’s as to being everyday players…. (With Cam getting a partial pass due to his age and getting aggressively promoted).
Totally agree. It's similar to when "if you have two Quarterbacks, then you have no Quarterbacks" (e.g. Brian Hoyer vs. Ryan Mallet). I think Dana put all of these guys with positional versatility on the roster with the hopes that some of them emerge as everyday starters and claim the position once and for all.
“Jose Altuve, 3.1: BOTH. Father Time comes for us all, but fangraphs projects Altuve for his worst season since 2013.” You think Father Time taps Altuve on the shoulder this year?
