Do you think these people you mention would be leading scorers on 2nd seed teams? Jalen Green on bad teams with high usage would be probably a 28 ppg scorer. He's far more naturally gifted than those guys, plays on a team that has expectations to try on defense, plays on a team where opposing teams actually put effort and don't see them as after thoughts. You think Coby White or Simons would be leading minutes played on a Ime coached team and not get benched for being ultimate defensive pushovers? Green isn't a superstar yet but he's far ahead of those guys because he can do what he does on a team that has expectations and accountability. Anfernee Simons is one of the largest defenders in the league and is allowed to be because he's on a dog **** team and for his entire career. How many minutes do you think he gets under Ime? It would be Cam level minutes.
I don't know if I buy the "Jalen would score 28ppg on a bad team". We saw him for two years on a bad team with no other options and he averaged more like 20. I do think he's lowkey gotten better even though the numbers don't show a massive leap, but I don't think he's gotten that much better. With no other options I think he'd probably score more like 24 per game as his right now. To get to the point where he can average such high scoring numbers as the clear #1A, I think he still needs more consistency. We'll see if he gets there, I hope so.
Jalen Green averaged 22 ppg at age 20... Good for 7th highest scoring average in NBA history for a player that age. What are you talking about dude? I wouldn't be surprised if 23 year old Green was a 30 ppg scorer on a Blazers, Wizards level team. His scoring efficiency is the same this season as someone who is consisted consistent for his age in Alpi. He's on a team that holds him a lot more accountable on defensive effort which makes any young players who creates their own offense have to adjust and train for the conditioning to become efficient at scoring against points of attack defenses and put up a high level of defensive effort night in and night out.
All right, to illustrate my point a little further, let's do some real nerdy sh*t and crunch some numbers on hypotheticals. Edit: Math fail, hang on.
The Hawks are TERRIBLE - such an easy game. If Jalen only played Hawk level teams he would be all NBA.... DD
All right, I got some of the numbers wrong in my post before. But I don't think that your standard argument about Jalen using more energy or whatever really applies here. He's simply not efficient enough as a scorer to generate the scoring levels you're talking about, and his efficiency would not improve as the only offensive weapon regardless--if anything it would decline as defenses focused on him more heavily. Best case he remains similarly efficient, though even that's unlikely. Let's do this more simply actually--let's assume he goes up 21% in usage, while maintaining similar efficiency, bringing him to the level of SGA in terms of shot attempts. That would bring him to 26 points per game. Again, I don't think he actually would keep his efficiency the same, so I do think it would be more like 24 or 25 in reality. But even being generous you're not getting to 28 on a guy with his scoring efficiency.
Why doesn't him being on a team that has opposing teams try more given they aren't facing a tanking team and the fact that Green has expectations on defense that guys even like Devin Booker have never been asked to do in their careers let alone Anfernee Simons not make scoring life harder for him? Do you understand the concept of a offensive flow respect for young scoring guards who for their entire basketball career are used to developing a offensive flow through being on ball and not having much responsibilities outside of putting up buckets. Life is just a lot easier to score on tanking teams. Is it a coincidence that Jalen Green was top ten in league history for scoring average for a player his age and immediately feel in his scoring average the moment a accountable coaching staff came in and made him earn minutes from expending energy on defense? I don't think people realize how different of an environment it is to score on a tanking teams vs teams that are playinginf meaningful games. The whole "March Jalen" thing in his first two years was dismissed primarily because of this. He was on a tanking team in March where opposing teams looked ahead and where coaches cared even less about defensive effort and he cooked. It's so much easier to get in "offensive flow" in those situations. No expectations, teams not caring about things exerting press defense, not throwing blitzes, not trying to deny even receiving the ball, opposing team best players talking nights off more often etc. There is a grind element to playing on a team contending vs a team tanking that takes a toll on your body.
I'm not denying any of that, it's why I said I actually agree that he's lowkey gotten better as a scorer despite the numbers not improving dramatically. I just don't think he has enough skill as a scorer to get to 28 points per game on any realistic number of shot attempts no matter what environment he's playing in. The math just doesn't work out unless you think he magically turns into a much more efficient scorer just by going from a good team to a bad team. And that doesn't make sense to me. If I squint I guess I can see him maintaining his efficiency by trying less on defense, but that's about as far as I'll go. Let's look at Ant Edwards' numbers as a point of comparison. Even Edwards is not averaging 28 points per game despite being more efficient and taking more shots. Jalen is not as good as Ant, sorry, he's just not.
I still don't think you get it. Yes. Hed absolutely be more efficient. Because defenses he'd be facing would be easier, he'd expend less energy game to game due to lower stakes and less accountability on defense, he'd dominate the ball more allowing for more "offensive flow". Many factors to Green scoring averages being suppressed... Not just defensive energy. Rhythm is a large part of it. Going from dominating the ball to having more competent high usage ball handlers be given roles over you where your on ball flow is more disjointed is going to screw with a young player who is used to just having the ball always. On a team with no expectations he will always have his offensive flow, not fear making mistakes to get benched, try significantly less on defense, opposing teams will not care to get up for a game against tanking teams etc. So many factors.
All of these assertions just seem very loosey-goosey and based more on belief/faith/etc than data and evidence. I mean, you can think those things if you want, but unless I see some strong evidence of these factors actually meaningfully changing a player's production, I'm not just going to buy into these kinds of hypotheticals. It's more more reasonable to go with the data you actually have rather than speculation on intangible things like scoring rhythm, teams "getting up" to face a better team, etc etc. I could make similar hypothetical assertions about other factors which could lower his scoring numbers being on a worse team. So um, agree to disagree I guess--is the only thing I can really say to speculation like this.
Data is a effect, not a cause right? Data is what happens due to circumstances. So looking at data and not accounting for factors Jalen Green faces night to night compared to the likes of Anfernee Simons is a fools errand. Data has context. You call it hypotheticals, I call it context.
I'm concerned that these repeated mistakes in the 4th quarter on defense and offense will hurt us in the playoffs, where every posession counts. Coach Udoka has told the players about this. The vets understand this, but the youngsters don't. That's all that I'm trying to convey. I don't think the Rockets are a train wreck by any means. I don't care if any of the other playoff bound teams are playing badly down the stretch.
I'm not saying context doesn't matter, I'm saying that there are contextual factors working both for him and against him, and how much effect each factor has and how it balances out is extremely complicated and vague. That's why I call it hypothetical/speculative--unless you're a data scientist working for an NBA front office and you have some kind of really complicated algorithmic model that crunches all the different numbers for you, I think it's more reasonable and reliable to work based off of the simple data you do have than to try to intuit every contextual element. Especially since you're clearly starting from certain assumptions, not just coming in cold as an objective observer (i.e. I know you're a big Jalen fan).
He got 30 against a solid Nuggets team. He does need to improve his efficiency and defense, but he's getting better.
I've notice a difference in JG's reads...becoming a better facilitator. A long way to go but glad to see him drive and pass out and make swing passes to the corners.
Pacers could beat the Lakers The broken down Bucks won't beat the Nuggets even with Jokic sitting out Flip a coin on Clippers/Knicks but I think the Clippers will win Celtics will beat the Suns even if they sit Tatum
