Suzuki makes 19 million. That would have put the Astros over the luxury tax which clearly they did not want to do. You are jumping up and down on the Suzuki idea because a couple reporters mentioned his name before the trade was made. I doubt the Astros really wanted him unless money to the Astros and Pressly were involved in the Tucker trade to keep them under the tax. They needed a pitcher with McCullers, Javier, France, and Garcia all being injured and Wesneski is cheap with lots of control and someone the Astros think can be a solid starter. It's also kind of ridiculous to assume the Astros didn't try to get the best deal possible. We know they were talking with the Yankees and wanted Luis Gil. Luckily the Yankees said no to that since he is injured. Reports said the Cubs, Phillies, Yankees, and Giants all showed interest. So you think Dana Brown didn't negotiate for the best deal? A player is worth what another team will pay for him. Not what you just decide his value is on a message board...
Dana played it perfectly. We got an former all-star with years of control, a major league quality inning eater, and a guy that was probably a top 3 pick in Brown's eyes. We made out like bandits for 1 season of Tucker and a compensation draft pick.
For the fourth time Dana started gauging interest after Soto signed his deal, Dec 2024. The Astros knew they weren't going to resign him for $400 or $450 million, so it shouldn't have mattered what Soto got. Everyone knows you're desperate and consistently lose players to marquee contracts. Focus on leverage shifts to bailing them out instead of the young, MVP candidate you're getting. It's how negotiations have worked for the past 100 years. Start early in the 2023s. Stay ahead of the pack. The Cubs are a good team to target, as are the Red Sox and Rangers. They want a proven big name for their up n coming team. As far as Suzuki, his contract is fine considering it ends 2026. You can easily make adjustments to accomodate it. He's a productive win now player who meets a glaring hole. It's the lengthy ones that the Astros are wary of, as they should be. Paredes has a "nice contract", but not impressive enough on his own to warrant Tucker.
The Astros trade with the Cubs was excellent - and well played by Brown. Not only did he only give up one year of Tucker in the contender window, he also got back a useful pitcher at little salary, a well above average starting third baseman at below market salary - but the hand picked prospect the GM wanted, has had a wonderful Spring and may start the season as the teams starting RF after like 30 games of total minor league experience. Indeed - if I were Dana Brown and wanted a simple example of why I deserve an extension, it would be how he handled Tucker’s contract and trade.
So let me get this straight... you wanted the Astros to look at trading Tucker in 2023 when he was only making 5 million bucks, had 3 years of service time left, and the Astros were a legit World Series contender that made it to game 7 of the ALCS? The fans would have rioted if they traded Tucker in 2023. You also failed to address the Astros needing a starting pitcher. They filled a hole at 3rd base for 3 years, got a pitcher with 5 years of service time left, and a top 50 prospect that looks very promising for a rental . How anyone can complain about this trade right now seems a little delusional. You do realize that last year Bregman had a 118 WRC+ and Paredes had a 117 WRC+. The year before Bregman had a 126 WRC+ and Paredes had a 137 WRC+. Paredes has been a more productive hitter combined the last 2 seasons. His glove isn't near Bregman's level but he can hit HRs and walks a lot. He also doesn't make a lot of money and is only 26 years old compared to the other option the Astros tried which was old man Arenado.
First of all neither Paredes nor Smith were Cubs heading into 2024. Secondly, even if they were, Paredes, Wesneski, and Smith are a much better return than Paredes, Suzuki, and Smith in my opinion. Suzuki only plays RF, LF, or DH and is not a good fielder. Having him on this roster blocks Smith. Also, Suzuki refused to waive his no trade clause so there's that. And where would this team be to start the season without Wesneski? Hot take - Wesneski is more valuable than Suzuki in 2025.
How about the leverage that the Astros have always let players play out their control and walk as free agents? The lack of leverage comes if other GMs think you have to trade, so will settle for less. Every GM that wanted Tucker knew without question that they would not get him if they offered a lesser deal. Brown had all the leverage he needed or could want.
Even if you are advocating that the Astros should have traded Tucker after the 2024 season but before Soto got traded, no team was going to do that until Soto was traded. They all wanted to see where he was going and how much it was going to cost. It takes two to make a trade.
Ok after watching Spring Training, and the game last night, I think we are still a Playoff team with the current roster. 1) 5 Starting Pitchers who have an ERA around or under 3.00 during the last 100 games or so. 2) A respectable bullpen with an elite setup and closer. Montero looking to rebound. 3) 3 out of the 4 infielders have Gold Gloves in their career (Walker, Dubon & Pena) and Paredes has been an All Star. 4) Diaz on cusp of becoming an All Star Catcher. 5) Best DH in Baseball with Yordan. 6) Cam Smith potential breakout, don't want to jinx it, but Dana is banking on an Acuna breakout from this dude. 7) Ass outfield, but still have decent defense with Jake at CF, and Altuve's bat will outweigh his mistakes in LF (hopefully) I mean, if they're in it at the trade deadline, they can make a push for another CF to strengthen the OF. Looks like we still have some decent prospects that are not properly valued by MLB rankings (or I am just being a tunnel vision Astros fan). They're not quite odds on WS contenders like previous years, but they're certainly Division and Playoff contenders again with this current roster. No time to panic just yet.
Lineup is 7/9 of the way to championship caliber (5 good hitters at the top + 2 defense-first players at the bottom); if Smith is the real deal (>120 wRC+) and if Rodgers somehow blossoms into being above average, it’s all the way there. The bench is relatively deep. Rotation should be good but may take some time to sort out who would be the 3rd SP in a playoff series. Bullpen should be good overall but will have some ups and downs as they figure out who they can rely on ahead of Abreu and Hader. The farm system will provide a lot more help this season, both in terms of players getting called up and contributing directly as well as providing trade chips. A serious injury to Yordan or Framber would likely send the team spiraling toward a tanked season, but outside of that this team will be somewhere between 86 and 99 wins (I think the team is clearly underrated by public projection systems). Whether they’re closer to 86 or 99 depends on a lot of things, but mainly the bottom half of the lineup and middle/back of the rotation.
What the Astros need in 2025 to bring home a 3rd trophy. 1) very few injuries, if any from the rotation. 2) Yordan plays at least 125 games and is healthy for the post season. 3) someone takes a hold of RF and has a 115 OPS+/wRC+ or better season. 4) The CF and 2b positions combine for at least 4.0 WAR, with neither being under 1.0 FWIW, Texas and Seattle continuing to play like Texas and Seattle would help.
Nothing flew over my head. I wasn't responding to the idea the Astros should've traded Tucker prior to the 2024 season. That's an entirely different discussion. Soto's pending free agency - and likely record-setting deal - didn't come out of nowhere: the entire league, media and the vast majority of (connected) fans knew it was coming for more than a year. To suggest it someone floored the Astros and prompted them to hurriedly deal one of the best hitters in baseball is silly. The Astros very obviously prioritized Bregman over Tucker - again, something they likely had in place for some time (and was likely rooted in their thinking Bregman would be cheaper on a shorter contract) - and knew they weren't going to be able to extend Tucker. I'm guessing this timeline unfolds the exact same way with or without Juan Soto: leverage one last full year of Tucker for another run and then maximize his value in the offseason. Do you honestly believe that a Major League Baseball front office is so terribly incompetent (while somehow stockpiling "tons of prospects"), they would've been completely oblivious to the risks of trading for a player in the final year of their deal? Even if we grant you this wildly improbable scenario... literally two days before Tucker was traded, Soto left the Yankees and signed with the Mets. Thinking Dana Brown should've been able to easily manipulate a Major League Baseball front office to acquire the players *you* wanted - and then being upset he didn't - is really bananas, man. Again, it's really hard to argue the Astros didn't get max value for Tucker. If Cam Smith has a 4+ WAR rookie season, he's quite possibly the most valuable asset in all of baseball. That we got Paredes - who is very good, as is, and might be even better in our ballpark - and a useful arm for our rotation are cherries on top.
I honestly think if RF is slightly above average and Pena keeps playing like a guy that we won't afford to resign in a few years, we are golden assuming we have health in our pitching staff. Here are ways we will be better this season than last Walker > Singletary in every way Rodgers > Altuve on defense Above average Pena > average Pena Healthy rotation with some experience Cam won't be better than Tucker but he will play more than half the games. Chas can't be as bad as last season. Altuve will be a better bat than anything we had last season in LF not including Alvarez. Our ceiling this season is very high. There are also lots of risk. The main risks are as follows. Rotation isn't healthy Altuve's offensive production falls off a cliff because of age. Alvarez's health
I will say I was very skeptical Tucker would be traded, but think it was a great trade. Trades like this should not happen in MLB any more. Even without Cam, this trade looks stupid from the Cubs POV.
