I don't see how picking Meyers' last 271 PA is "cherry picking" but Chas's small sample 267 PA last season is not "cherry picking". We've got 1000+ PA for Jake where he's accumulated 4.9 WAR and 1200+ PA for McCormick where he's accumulated 6.8 WAR. I think multiple seasons of data is the best thing to go off, when you are talking about 2 guys in their late 20s. 'm not talking just "2023 level" Chas - he was 107 / 111 / 130 OPS+ in his only three seasons before last year. Chas at his lowest pre-2024 level is light years ahead of Meyers's career 86 OPS+. One guy was an A/B student every year before putting up an F last season playing about 33% of the time. The other guy has been a consistent D student. It's not difficult to think the former is likely to be better long term, when all the data we have from multiple seasons tells us last year who was better.
This was basically my argument last year. Also, it’s worth mentioning that Chas’ at bats last year were very sporadic. When he came back from injury he was never really allowed to settle in to the line up. Granted, he was struggling and that was part of the reason he couldn’t get regular starts.
Also, defensive war is a counting stat and Jake doesn't play close to every day. That 7th is even better than it sounds (unless you did the math's and gave it to us as a rate stat instead of a cumulative stat.
That'd be easy: who are the top 7 and what's their fWar and how many games did they play? Sounds like algebra to me.
Once again, only looking at offense to make an arguement for who should start at a defense first position. So averaging 2.1 WAR per 500 PAs is an "D"? Tough grading scale. For what it's worth 127 MLB position players, across 30 teams, had 2.1+ fWAR last season.
Meyers had 2.0 fWar in 513 PA, so your numbers are a little off. I also looked to see how many players had as many plate appearances as Meyers, which was right at the line of qualified hitters. The answer? 129. So even if he was at 2.1 fWar, 127 / 129 isn’t exactly all world. Sounds like a D to me. And the “defense first position” stuff sounds like the Maldonado over Diaz arguments from 2023.
Good to see Chas get into one, hopefully he can show more in the last week. This is shaping up to be one of the trickier final cuts we've had in a long time.
My numbers were career numbers just like in the post I responded to. And I'm not saying hitting does not matter. If there was a Yainer Diaz competing with Meyers for CF then that would need to he accounted for. But Chas is no Yainer. And the only problem I have is excluding defense completely from the decision making. If you are going to talk about hitting in a CF, it's short sighted and incomplete to not include defense as well. "Chas is a better option for CF than Jake because his OPS is 85 pts higher" is like "Car A is better than car B for a road trip because it gets better gas mileage". You can't make that decision without more information.
I’m glad he had this game. Let’s see what his approach will be. Does he stay within himself or overthink it and slide some? Not that he won’t have bad stretches throughout his career, but I’m kinda excited to see what happens here even if it is just one game.
I bet you didn’t watch this game. I bet you won’t watch his next game either. The idea that an 0-4 in a spring game has meaning to you is ****ing stupid. Im kinda excited how your one post has made me think you’re a moron. Even if it’s just one post.
I guess you didn’t read too deep into my post. Ultimately, it doesn’t have much meaning at all. Two reasons why…it’s Spring and it’s just one game. Doesn’t mean I won’t watch his approach next game. Do I put as much stock in it as you did being a total d******d to me for no reason? No. So, AC, kindly go f*** yourself.
I wasn't trying to give the impression that I cared only about offense. I think I discussed Jake's very good defense in a few spots. I agree that both matter. Chas brings good defense and good offense, historically. Jake is (very good) defense only. I wouldn't play a bad defender over Jake but Chas is good defensively. fWar and bWar both take into account defense and show that Chas is a better player, even if he only returns to his worst pre-2024 season levels. My point (in a previous post) is that a B offense / B defense player is a better choice for this roster than a D offense / A - defense player. I'd like to give Chas the first go at the position on day 1, with Jake available to fill the spot again full time if he fails. AAA at bats won't answer the question of if Chas is back to form.
FWIW, the projection systems paint McCormick and Meyers as very similar quality of hitters. Meyers is a wRC+ 98-99 guy by ZIPS and Steamer; McCormick is 103-104. That’s not a meaningful differerence. Rather than a comparison of “B/B vs D/A-“, the numbers say it’ll be more like a comparison of C/B (McCormick) vs C/A (Meyers). To favor McCormick is to make an unsubstantiated bet that not only are the odds he returns to 2021-2023 form higher than the odds his 2024 collapse was real, but also that whatever odds of McCormick improving over last year are higher than the odds of Meyers improving. Those projection systems paint Meyers as the more valuable player overall (Meyers is 1.7-2.5 fwar, McCormick 0.7-2.0), although I admittedly don’t know how the defensive projections work in terms of which position they project a player at. I also disagree that facing AAA pitching has no value for McCormick. How he hits in AAA certainly has value to gauge how he’d hit in the majors, just like for any other player, and if his issue is one of confidence, facing lesser pitching may well do him more good than being in the majors.
I just realized that all 3 of the SP Houston has extended during this run (McCullers, Verlander, Javier) have required Tommy John surgery shortly after being extended. Shouldn’t be shocking Houston isn’t much interested in extending Valdez.
Especially when you take into consideration the tendency for high GB% pitchers to fall off a cliff later in their career. That would be a risky extension, as much as I would hate to see Framber go.
