The “give me Harden over FVV” takes are embarrassing

Everyone acknowledged the Rockets overpaid for FVV at the time. I thought that was common knowledge? The team was faced with a salary basement and they had to spend $ just to make payroll. The team was in dumpster mode and had to overpay to attract anybody at all. So taking on FVV wasn't a burden.

But since FVV is on a team option, it will be interesting to see what they do. They could let him walk for nothing in return. Not sure that's the best answer either.

Who's avail as a FA PG this summer that is a clear upgrade to FVV? I haven't looked.

 

On his hands, FVV typically does fine against bigger guards. The tiny shifty little f#$%ers are the ones that give him the most problems. Not saying great big guards don't score on him...it is just those guys score on most players.

On his slow pace, the Rockets offense is better with FVV on the court. I'd guess the Rockets half court offense is better with FVV by a lot than without despite the Rockets offense not being great either way. FVV keeps the turnovers in check and the slower pace allows all the team to get into the attack (i.e., offensive rebounders are in position).

The team offense looked its best in January (adjusting for talent as the offense has been great since FVV returned, but that is a lot of bad opponents). The team offense looked its worst in February.

I want the January Rockets back. That team looked great. A little defensive issues, but that offense had the ball moving.

 

I understand our offense would look different with the current version of Harden ...but Harden isn't available today. And two years ago when he was available, Harden was a mess.

Two years ago Harden was:
1. Injury prone
2. just came off a horrible stint with Phili.
3. Prior to that, helped burn down the Nets.
4. Prior to that, personally burned down the Rockets.
5. Reportedly was demanding a 4yr/max contract (killing the flexibility that attracted Udoka here)

I don't think most reasonable people would have expected Harden to be playing this well two years into the future. So yea, knowing what we know now, maybe this team would be better off with Harden. But then again, ask the Nets how that worked out for them? And Udoka doesn't sign with the Rockets with Harden.

Meanwhile, the Rockets sit in 2nd place in the west so what are we really complaining about? Life is good. If Harden were signed two years ago, he'd be taking touches away from Jalen. Maybe you'd argue that would be a good thing.

 

Of course. If we were looking at it from 2023 perspective, I'd definitely be pissed if the Rockets gave Harden a 4-year deal at anywhere near max money. But man he's playing like a max contract guy right now. And there's no reason to believe he won't be playing worth at least 80% max next year. The final year if he's done he's done. At that point as an expiring you can trade him for someone. The Rockets are looking to extend FVV right now. And depending on the price tag, it may not be that far off from Harden's original price from 2 years ago.

In the end, I just feel Harden has played better than expected since that offseason, and FVV has played worse than expected. Put the two together, not sure how anyone can claim FVV is still the better signing unless you go with nebulous intangibles stuff.

 

I understand not wanting Harden back. I think you have some bad justifications for not wanting him back, but I actually agree with your overall point. I didn’t want him back either.

I totally get blaming Harden for “burning down” our Houston Rockets, though if you ask me or a lot of other fans they are currently pretty happy with what transpired since that time with this team. That wouldn’t be the case if Harden stuck around like a “good soldier”. We would have had a few more 1st round exits and would be wanting to do now what we all knew needed to be done then by divorcing from the Harden era….tank and rebuild.

What I don’t get is blaming him for Brooklyn.

Brooklyn crumbled because of Kyrie Irving and his vax stance and all 3 of those guys being injured at the same time. They played 10? total games together? Kyrie was clearly the catalyst of that teams demise. Everyone wanted out so they didn’t have to deal with that.

Hard for me to categorize his time in Philly as “horrible”. I think he did what he was asked/expected to do for that team. Be Embiids number 2 and set him up for success while helping Maxey evolve. Embiid won an MVP and Maxey had probably his best overall season to date next to Harden. Harden had his playoff stinkers(along with some monster games)but he wasn’t there to carry that team. That was Embiids job….but he was hurt as usual.

 

Solid post and don't disagree with anything you state. My characterization is a bit over simplified, but the fact remained that the Rockets had a choice to make and simply made a business decision at the time. Maybe now you argue it doesn't look so good but that's hindsight. At the time, it wasn't that hard of a choice.

I loved Harden, at the time. But it's like breaking up with you ex. It was fun at the time but that time has passed. No sense in keep checking her Facebook posts in her bikini and wondering if you made the right choice. You didn't need all the drama that seems to surround her ...and frankly, life is great without her. You made the right choice, own it.

 

At the time, signing FVV seemed like the right choice ...and maybe it was the right choice. We'll never know. Adding a great player onto a good team doesn't always translate. So comparing FVV's stats straight up with Harden's stats is inconclusive, at best.

But what we do know is, THIS team currently sits in 2nd place with cap flexibility. Why second guess a good outcome?

 

It is pretty easy to see FVV is a better defender than Harden, and throws the ball to the other team a lot less.

On tangible rating of players, EPM has FVV rated higher in actual performance this year based on tangible results of what has happened. If your opinion is that you can't see how anyone would think Player X is better than Player Y and one of the best publicly available statistical models says Player X is better than Y, even if Player Y is better than Player X, it probably is not clear cut. I have FVV and Harden in the same range of player, but I trust EPM more than posters on this board. EPM's predictive model does suggest Harden will be the better player going forward as it thinks FVV can't keep up the defensive play.

If one is rating a player only on offense, sure Harden is better. If one is rating a player only on defense, FVV is better. If Harden and FVV were put on equivalent college basketball teams, Harden's team would smoke FVV's basketball team. FVV's value comes in supporting his teammates which is magnified with better players around him. Harden's value as the offensive engine is reduced in value with better players as other players are less reliant on the offensive engine (this doesn't make Harden bad, just less valuable as skills overlap).

I typically look at player through the lens of the best teams. Of OKC, Cleveland, and Boston, I think they would pick FVV as Harden's skills as an offensive engine are not as good as their current engines, and FVV is better at the supporting tasks.

 

His pace is what controls his turnovers - he doesn’t get a lot of the TOs Amen and JG get pushing the pace …. And he’s a lot better under pressure, JG has improved but he will still dribble it out of bounds time to time

Fred is the best at getting the ball to Alpi… if he was a threat to finish at rim, he could use his midrange which he’s pretty good at

 

I really don't feel like arguing any sort of "well I found this one stat that says otherwise and I claim they're definitely the gospel and the other stats out there that provide contrary data are clearly fake" kind of argument, but I did look up EPM just to see how they're trying to differentiate from other similar models. And it's kind of funny that they're pushing out this new "Expected" model which they claim to have both more predictive and more informing of a player true skill has Harden above FVV in this metric.

FWIW, there was another poster who pushed that DARKO is the end all be all of advanced metrics. And that metric has Harden way higher.

 

The Harden doesnt play defense argument hopefully is dead

 

We will never know if signing Harden would make this team better than it is now with Fred. But here’s some facts:

Facts:

• Harden plays poor man and help defense
• Harden has never won a championship
• Harden wilted in some of the biggest games of his career including must win situations
• Harden is a ball dominant iso player
• Harden leads the league in isos this year at 36.2 freq% and 9ppg off isos
• Harden was reportedly part of a toxic culture in Houston that was lenient and catered to him

Now does this sound like a player that would fit into Udoka’s current system, identity and culture of hard nosed defense, intensity, effort, and Sengun centric offense?

 

How does this prove anything in terms of defensive consistency, intensity, effort, and making picking the proper assignments and reads each game?

 

Who cares? He's not on the Rockets, wasn't ever gonna be since he left, and won't be next season.

Ya'll need to let this James Harden fascination go. The Rockets are doing ok without him. This whole thread needs to get moved into the "unrealistic trade proposal' thread or something.

 

No. Once they signed Ukoka, Harden was off the table, probably for all the reason's you outlined (plus the contract situation).

 

Anyone who is earning their money is good. There are a lot of guys who make less than Fred that I would prefer to have. Ja Morant, SGA, Darius Garland, Maxey, Lamelo Ball, etc all make less money. I consider Fred Medicore because he is paid $43M a year and does not really have the impact that top tier PGs have like the ones mentioned, Haliburton and Luka making the same amount as Fred just does not make sense. I would say he is terrible, but he is the leader on currently #2 seed so he has to be doing some thing right, he just is not worth the same amount of money as Luka, SGA, Maxey. When you look at the % of cap space hes taking, saying he is mediocre is being generous. Even when you compare him to Harden, he is making 30% more money. Kyrie would have been a better signing than FVV, and for less money. The Mavs got their moneys worth out of him, even with the latest injury.

 

This. The only question is what to do with FVV next season.

 

Why would money be a factor in terms of player evaluation? It certainly isn't a determinant of player performance or how good a player is considering these guys are on different types of contracts. Maxey is on a rookie contract. Ball and Garland took their rookie extension which they are only qualified to 25% of the salary cap. Fred was entitled to 30% of the salary cap as a vet of 7 plus years. And btw Luka makes more than Fred and off a supermax rookie extension not a vet supermax giving him 35% of salary cap. Besides none of those players you listed were on the market during the FVV signing.

The question was "Define what a good PG is". And "Define what a mediocre PG is". None of the players you mentioned besides SGA plays defense. None of them besides SGA fit the style of play and maybe identity of what Stone and Udoka wants.

Udoka was very specific in what he wants in terms of style and personnel to fit that style. Fred was reportedly paid to lead, mentor, and instill culture. He embodies what this team is about. And besides how many times have we seen him bail out the Rockets with 3's especially late in the game or when the offense is stalled? Rockets made the right choice and likely did not see him as a long term piece hence the 3rd year team option.

 

In their Victories Harden gave philly 40
He carried them to 2 victories and 1 without Embiid
but
yea . .. blame him

Rocket River

 

Every young team needs a veteran with high ethical values to be an example, unless we are going to get Chris Paul there is nothing better than FWW