Houston Astros Top 30, from Baseball America Obviously, with trades and IFA signings, the Prospect Handbook is out of date because it goes to press early in the offseason. Book Top 30 with grades and risk 1. Jacob Melton, 55/High 2. Brice Matthews, 55/High 3. Zach Dezenzo, 50/Medium 4. Walker Janek, 50/High 5. Miguel Ullola, 50/High 6. Ryan Forcucci, 55/Extreme 7. Shay Whitcomb, 45/Medium 8. A.J. Blubaugh, 45/High 9. Ethan Pecko, 45/High 10. Anderson Brito, 50/Extreme 11. Luis Baez, 50/Extreme 12. Ryan Gusto, 40/Medium 13. Jackson Nezuh, 45/High 14. Joseph Sullivan, 45/High 15. Parker Smith, 45/High 16. Zach Cole, 50/Extreme 17. Pedro Leon, 40/Medium 18. Colton Gordon, 40/Medium 19. Jose Fleury, 45/High 20. James Hicks, 40/High 21. Kenedy Corona, 40/High 22. Andrew Taylor, 40/High 23. Michael Knorr, 40/High 24. Alonzo Tredwell, 45/Extreme 25. Chase Jaworsky, 40/High 26. Caden Powell, 45/Extreme 27. Jancel Villaroel, 45/Extreme 28. Cole Hertzler, 40/High 29. Alex Santos. 40/High 30. Bryce Mayer, 40/High Current top 30 on the BA website 1. Cam Smith 2. Melton 3. Matthews 4. Dezenzo 5. Janek 6. Ullola 7. Forcucci 8. Whitcomb 9. Blubaugh 10. Pecko 11. Brito 12. Kevin Alvarez - could hit his way into the top 10 by the end of the year 13. Baez 14. Gusto 15. Nezuh 16. Sullivan 17. Smith 18. Cole 19. Leon 20. Gordon 21. Fleury 22. Hicks 23. Corona 24. Taylor 25. Knorr 26. Tredwell 27. Jaworsky 28. Powell 29. Villarroel 30. Hertzler
They’re very low on Jaworsky and Gomez but other than that not much to quibble with. I am hoping Kevin Alvarez was already brought over to the US complex. That would be a great sign for how good he is and how quickly they’ll get him into full season ball.
Really informative and good read, thanks for posting that. It seems like Dana Brown’s main organizational change in player development is to promote guys faster, but other than that they’re still focused on the same things. I hope they are able to improve their international position player pipeline. Nice to see someone from the front office be seemingly honest and have it reflect most of what the knowledgeable posters in this thread have been saying. Sounds like the farm is doing just fine. As the season draws closer, I am getting really really optimistic about the Astros farm system. That happens to me every year to a certain degree but it’s more pronounced this season. They will have a lot of guys repeating levels and a lot of really high ceiling position player prospects throughout their system.
I think with Cam Smith looking like a bona fide top prospect, we are right up there in the top 10-15 range of systems across MLB. It's silly at this point to question the 1-3 Astros pitching prospects every year who have helium inside the organization. This year it's Brito and Pecko. Notable you never hear Blubaugh's name floated around these conversations with Astros development staff. I expect both Brito and Pecko to become MOR starters at this point. They seem excited about Matthews and Dezenzo too, which is encouraging. That right there is potentially 5 MLB players in our system, each of whom could become a star. That's a good system.
Right. For example I would be way more down on the system if they were hyping guys like Baez (limited defensively which dramatically increases bust risk) or Sacco and Hamilton (high floor/low ceiling Kessinger/Fontana types). The guys getting hype are guys that have legit chances to be core/star players. Im very curious in Blubaugh. I’ve seen him enough in person and his numbers were good enough that I’m really high on him and surprised he’s not more in the spotlight.
I have them much too high on Ulolla (l like him as a bullpen guy) and Alvarez (unestablished all bat guy).
Someone brought up in another thread (where the conversation was around Melton) the idea of starting a thread about all the “everything but a hit tool” prospects Houston has had. Here’s my list of prospects who had 50+ grades in arm, speed, glove, and power (but <50 grade hit tool) since 2012: Jonathan Villar Domingo Santana (questionable on speed) Ariel Ovando Brett Phillips (had it all as a prospect) Derek Fisher Freudis Nova Ross Adolph Jordan Brewer Pedro Leon* Zach Daniels* Tyler Whitaker* Cristian Gonzalez* Jose Siri Matthew Barefoot Logan Cerny* Corey Julks (questionable on glove) Joey Loperfido Kenedy Corona* Zach Cole* Camilo Diaz* Jacob Melton* Nehomar Ochoa* (questionable speed) Brice Matthews* *still in the system Guys who “had it all”: George Springer, Carlos Correa, Teoscar Hernandez, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker
For being a guy I'd never even heard of before in the Astros dev operations, he's refreshingly self-aware and well spoken. That was a fantastic and informative interview. If the system/development matches his level of optimism the Astros are in a great place.
Wow. I can definitely see why @Wulaw Horn and others keep pounding on 'hit tool'. That is a long list of formerly (or still) exciting players, the best of whom barely reached MLB mediocrity.
Springer and Teoscar Hernandez are the 2 guys who had high k rates in the minors that went on to be good big league hitters. It’s really rare for a guy who strikes out >25% of the time over any significant stretch in the minors to end up being a good MLB hitter. Good news is Melton strikes out less than both those guys did in the minors, but it’s easy to see the similarities between Jacob Melton and Derek Fisher. Brett Phillips is the one guy who seemed to have all the tools but didn’t pan out. Prospects with a 50+ grade hit tool on MLB.com’s current Astros top prospects list: Cam Smith Walker Janek Kevin Alvarez Chase Jaworsky Joseph Sullivan
Based on. All these names, my conclusion is that prospects with both 50+ hit tool.and 50+ power are very rare and should be targeted. Teach/determine defense in the system.
Hahah I’m pretty sure that’s what every team does (try to find players who can hit for power and get on base).
Eh, I don’t think that’s what he’s saying necessarily. a guy that busted- AJ Reed- he had hit and power tool both and he went what- mid 2nd round? Because teams still value (overvalue?) defense ahead of hit imo.
But AJ Reed sucked. Targeting guys like him doesn’t seem like a great strategy. I think if there’s a takeaway, it’s that the bust rate for prospects with strikeout problems is extremely high, even if a player has massive power and/or defensive value. So if a team is going to target those guys they need a boatload of them. Guys with 50+ hit/power grades are not undervalued. Theres no market inefficiency there. If there’s a miss in the market, it might be that certain guys without power have the ability to add it (advances in body type and swing analysis) and guys who have certain issues with strikeouts can be fixed (I.e. finding the George Springer’s vs the Derek Fisher’s).
Actually, it looked like for a while at least the Astros were coveting speed and defense along with power at the expense of hit tool which is why the system has so many of those guys. Maybe I'm wrong. But Kevin Alvarez and Luis Baez are examples of that changing.
The Astros did draft a lot of power/speed guys with strikeout risk, but that’s because they have not had top draft picks; guys with 50+ hit/power tools are usually gone in the first 20 picks. Heck, most of the players with even just a 50+ grade hit tools are gone in the first 2 rounds, because that skill is the most highly valued in the game. Notice the two guys you listed (Baez and Alvarez) are international signees. Two other potential areas of inefficiency: targeting late bloomers and guys with injury history (which is part of what I think Houston does on the pitching side), but adding those guys is trading one set of risks for another.
Couple of interesting tweets from the Astros Player Dev account. SS Wilton Lara has been promoted from the DSL to the FCL.
Alimber has gased it over 100 before, was up to 102 on some side throws last season. Amazingly he doesn't lose movement - its a work in progress with him. Lara looks like he should be in class with my 12 year old.
