Phil Garner, is a very positive outcome for Dezenzo. If Dezenzo and Smith produce this year then that's a very good year of the Stros farm producing. How many years has the Stros system produced top 10 ROY guys? I would say Diaz is a developing star level player. The team hasn't missed a beat since Pena took over for Correa. Smith may be a year away, but he looks like he's capable of taking over for Tucker etc... But you're right, as long as they have the pitching they will be contenders.
I have a hard time buying that any prospect who reaches the majors in their 2nd full season like Dezenzo is on some kind of guaranteed mediocre trajectory. The easy to see difference between Melton/Dezenzo and the Reed/White/Davis types is defensive value which translates to a higher floor/ceiling as well as more probability of getting a long look (due to being able to play the field at multiple positions). The odds are against Dezenzo/Melton being stars, as they are with any fringe Top 100 prospect. But if you want to comp them, it’s more to Derek Fisher, George Springer, and Teoscar Hernandez types than it is to the 1B/DH busts you’ve mentioned.
Again, theres a ton of gray area between “stars” (your term), everyday players, borderline everyday players, and busts. I also included our current homegrown OFers as they’re certainly not stars but far from busts. Springer was a first round college pick, expected to be great, and reached the height of his greatness as an Astro. He got a star level deal. I don’t expect any of these guys to produce on a year by year basis, at a high above average to elite level to get a 6+ year big money deal… hell Teoscar Hernandez couldn’t even get that. Thats “star” level. I’d also like to know what position Dezenzo really plays… having the ability to play multiple positions, and yet not really having a set position, isn’t always a plus. Melton has been held down because he’s just not hitting well enough and nobody is expecting that to automatically get better when facing MLB pitchers day-in/day-out…. So he becomes a platoon/defensive replacement guy?
It’s a steady regression based on the quality of the replacement player with again very little sustainable impact from the actual drafted players since 2015. Yordan and Diaz were the oh-so-fortunate trades that kept the youth infusion noticeable, but would have been nice to have at least one drafted projectable all-star in that same time. The best case scenario is that Matthews and Smith get on the team THIS year and actually start making an impact/figuring stuff out, get adjusted to, and they make adjustments to the adjustments. That last factor is huge… it’s what has plagued Pena/Chas/Meyers.
This years team has a chance to be better than last year's team. Last year they were a bat short. This year they're two bats short. If Dezenzo is what I think he's going to be be will be an avg to above avg bat. Smith will be the key. The Stros have always had a replacement ready when Springer, Correa etc... now for the first time in a long time we're hoping Smith is the real deal, Dezenzo can play RF etc.... You know issues most other teams have to face on a yearly basis.
Drafted in 15 out of HS, called up in 18 (21yo), probably gets called up sooner if playing for a team that wasn’t stacked so he could get regular time. The 2025 (and future) Astros don’t have that sort of log-jam of talent… anywhere.
After that cup of coffee, he played 120+ games in AAA in 2019, it was 5 years in the minors, 23yo when he was up for good the next season (stupid covid)
I’m sure you remember the 2019 team and why Tucker wasn’t an everyday player on it (and yet he still was good enough to be on the playoff roster). He was a highly ranked fast-tracked prospect that happened to be in an organization featuring one of the best offenses of all-time during the years he normally would have been promoted to any average team. The 2025 Astros are not that sort of team… and the point is that the Astros have not drafted a guy worthy of fast-tracking in over 10 years (the much bigger problem).
Look at other perennial contenders over the last half dozen years, have they all “drafted a guy worthy of fast-tracking” during that time? The Dodgers don’t have anyone they drafted after 2016 in their starting lineup. Yankees have Volpe and Wells but neither guy was “fast-tracked” and neither is on the level of Houston’s core of draftees they had from 2015-2022 (Springer, Correa, Bregman, Tucker). The Phillies are the same with Scott and Bohm. The only contending teams with star position players they drafted recently are teams who recently exited a rebuild like the Orioles. Picking at the back of the draft makes it a LOT harder to draft fast developing star players. And it’s even harder when you lose 5 picks in the top 2 rounds in a 5 year span.
Are you not perhaps a smidge remiss in your complete omission - either by neglect or expedience - of the commissioner's recently enforced punitions so egregiously levied upon our beloved ball club, and their direct impact on your argument's premise? To be clear, read this not as dissent; but rather as an attempt to provide a discussion the absolutely critical context necessary to even really have it in good faith - certainly that from which would require of any implication, indication, inference, assertion, judgment, or predication one might glean to qualify as sound, no less.
I’d argue Volpe was “fast-tracked” as he made his debut at 21 years old. I’m not super high on him though…I think he ends up as a slightly better Jeremy Pena. The rest is accurate. Give Dana Brown several top 5ish picks and I’m sure we’d also have some top end prospects that would be “fast-tracked”.
When you have the resources to mask draft errors (or you trade those guys), you don’t have to hit on as much. that being said, the Astros have turned some of those drafted guys into contributors via trade, so it’s not like they haven’t contributed… (even though none of those JV, Greinke prospects carved out star seasons). Without the Yordan and Diaz trades, the promotion to everyday player pipeline has been scant.
Tbh I’m not really sure what your main point is. Is it that if you take away the context of farm development via trades, trading away prospects, pitching drafting and development, draft pick penalties, and late draft picks, that the Astros have done a poor job in drafting and developing? If so I agree…I guess.
They are exceptional at pitcher development, trade AWAY players who never really amount to much for very good MLB upgrades, trade FOR prospects that dramatically outperform their value (Yordan, Yanier, likely Cam), have a ROY candidate every year, and keep winning the division despite constant roster churn while never paying the tax and getting penalized for a league-wide problem. Other than that, they are complete failures and all should be fired.
