Fischer: Rockets interested in reaching long term deal with Fred VanVleet

I saw this tweet somewhere earlier.

I think Lamelo could be had but I think we'd have to give up Sengun or Amen. If they'd take Jalen that would be ideal.

If they had to give up Sengun (plus other stuff) getting Mark Williams along with Lamelo would be nice.

 

There's this weird dynamic across all NBA fanbases where fans have this misplaced fear/expectation that their own players will get waaay more money on their new contract in the upcoming summer than they end up actually getting.

I think maybe bc of the cognitive dissonance of a) rooting for your own players + watching them every night and wanting them to be considered good around the league and b) internalizing the arguments the market will have against giving that player a giant contract.

FVV is not getting $100M guaranteed on his next contract lol.

He got $83M guaranteed when he was still in his 20s, on a known and purposeful overpay to get him to come to a last place team in an environment with lots of competitive cap space bidders. Summer 2025 context is totally different.

He'll get max ~$60M guaranteed this summer, probably less. No more than 2 fully guaranteed years.

My prediction is ~$50-55M/2 guaranteed or even ~$65-70M/2 with another team option on year 2.

 

I think what you are witnessing is the league somewhat overcorrecting for what is effectively now a hard cap. The cost for poor cap management is now not just a conversation about the haves and have nots, but has real negative competitive ramifications to teams who disregard(see the Suns and their inability to make significant roster changes).

 

This might be controversial, but...

I think if we were trading for Ball, the obvious trade piece is Jalen Green.... and I'm not sure i do that deal. There's just too much risk involved.

 

I deal would be Sengun and a #1 for LaMelo and Mark Williams. Although both players are hurt, I think Houston has the depth to sustain injuries.

I'm not a huge LaMelo fan but I know this current roster is not a good mix. A future three of LaMelo, Jalen and Amen would be intriguing with a front court of Jabari and Williams

 

risk involved for us or them?

 

For us.

Ball has significant injury concerns, he hasn't played a lot of played well the past 3 seasons, AND I'm not sure about his fit with the team.

I mean, there's risk both ways, but I'm not concerned about the risk to the Hornets.

 

Generally agree on leverage.

In this case, only 1 team has cap space and is looking to punt to 2026 cap space.
On a sign-and-trade, it only works for teams under the first apron. Also, Houston isn't going to accept a useless salary without some serious trade assets.
I don't think FVV feelings will be hurt by the Rockets offering 25-100% more than any other team will.

While I enjoy FVV, I don't he's desired enough to be able to force his way elsewhere as long as the Rockets are reasonable.

 

I feel like trading anyone would mean a package for Lamelo like:

VanVleet
Sheppard
Whitmore

for

Ball
Mark Williams
Grant Williams

We may have to add a pick but I would make it one of our own later down the line over anything upcoming.

 

In terms of teams adjusting to the harder cap rules: it's both sides learning to adjust. The team side and the player/agent side.

JJJ is up for his extension. And if he he hits some of his incentives, likely could be the next highest paid player in NBA ever. How ever long that'll be until another player breaks it. In JJJ 's case Grizz are looking to pay him the max he's eligible.

Opposite case would be an Ingram where Pels didn't want to re-up. Took a long while until eventually another team (Raptors) stepped in. Other case include Luka.

FVV might end up like a CJ McCollum where currently on an inflated contract, but next one will be adjusted. But I don't see FVV's re-up with us go below $25m per year. It'll be some respectable % of the cap.

 

You don't trade Jalen, you trade Sengun. Jalen needs wing help. Rarely do a big and a wing work, unless one or both are dominant; Shaq and Kobe, Kareem and Magic, Jokic and Murray.

It's easier to pair two wings in todays game and make it work; Tatum and Brown, LeBron and Luka, Mitchell and Garland

Sure Luka is a good player but the subtraction of AD and the addition of Luka has made LA a total different team.

LaMelo, Jalen, Amen, Jabari and Williams would be must watch. The problem would be how many times a yr, could we see them.play together? Lol

 

You can't play Jalen and Ball, and you REALLY can't play Jalen, Ball, and Amen.

 

PG LaMelo Ball
SG Jalen Green
SF Amen Thompson
PF Jabari Smith
C Alperen Sengun

 

Instead of Reed Sheppard just add picks.

Rockets need Reed Sheppard in case LaMelo Ball gets injured.

 

Trade Successful

LaMelo Ball, Jusuf Nurkic for Fred VanVleet, Jock Landale, Cam Whitmore, Add Phoenix Picks.

 

if that were the offer I’m listening.

 

I could argue it either way, which is why it's probably about fair.... but I'd be very uncomfortable about it from a Rockets standpoint

 

First rule of NBA, never trade big for small all things being equal.

 

Not sure if just adding picks would do it. But I’m ok with entering the draft looking for a serviceable backup PG, there’s usually a handful that make considerable impacts, who are found later in the draft (mid-late 1st).

 

I would not trade Jalen for LaMelo. Rockets fans tell me Zion is no bueno due to injury concerns but LaMelo is just as injury prone + he has no discernable reason to always be this injured. LaMelo is also shooting 33% 3P and 3.7 TOV this season, which is worse than either Jalen or Fred.

Further, LaMelo career +/- of -1.62 compared to Zion's +0.60. And even with LaMelo prolific scoring this season, only 53.7 TS%. The only starters I'd include in LaMelo trade package are Jabari and/or Dillon.