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Would you gamble on Zion Williamson?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by larsv8, Jun 1, 2022.

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Would you offer Zion a 4 year max, all guaranteed?

  1. Yes

    30.8%
  2. No

    69.2%
  1. Aruba77

    Aruba77 Member

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    If Sengun can’t develop a shot I’m okay with trading him. If he can develop a shot we’d be fools to trade him. I’m disappointed I haven’t seen any real improvement in the shooting over 4 seasons. It makes me wonder if he can get there, but he’s only like 22/23, so…. I guess I’ll have to trust the rockets evaluators who see him every day.

    Zion is an unreal talent and also still young, but wouldn’t trade Sengun for a guy who’s never proven he can stay on the court. And just ask Pels fans how Zion’s lack of availability has held that franchise back. Not sure why we’d want that here. Maybe if we were desperate but we aren’t desperate.
     
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  2. DaDakota

    DaDakota Balance wins
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    I agree if Sengun was shooting 38% from 3, then we could move him out of the paint and take advantage of all the speed we have on the perimeter.

    DD
     
  3. Terror-Trips

    Terror-Trips Member

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    Every player has weaknesses. How do you completely ignore that Rockets best defensive lineups include Alperen Sengun?

     
  4. Terror-Trips

    Terror-Trips Member

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    Steph, Kawhi, Embiid, AD, Lavine, Ja, Porzingas, Klay, Chet ... even Zion has returned from season ending injury to have an all star season - TWICE.

     
  5. DaDakota

    DaDakota Balance wins
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    Just watch the games and see him get picked on all game long in the PnR - he is not a good defender, you might have talked yourself into believing he is, but he isn't.

    He isn't a shot blocking threat is too slow to get iin position to stand up tall, and continually drops too deep - he isn't a guy that will probably ever be good on D.

    Now, someone like Jokic isn't either but he is so good at everything else you hide him.....Sengun isn't good at everything else....he is a very good player, I just believe that someone like him is what we will have to give up go get a GREAT player like KD or Zion.

    And just for the record, I would trade anyone not named AMEN for Zion.....it is not just Alpi.

    DD
     
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  6. Terror-Trips

    Terror-Trips Member

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    Thanks but I'll take Ime Udoka's analysis and the advanced metrics over your eye test.

     
  7. DaDakota

    DaDakota Balance wins
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    I don't trust Ime either, his offense is less than what some AAU teams run...it is embarrassingly rudimentary.

    DD
     
  8. Terror-Trips

    Terror-Trips Member

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    You don't trust Ime on defense? Do you trust neutral third parties?

     
  9. Dr of Dunk

    Dr of Dunk Clutch Crew

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    The question isn't just do you trust neutral third parties, it's "do you trust the stat?" and, if so, why? Can you tell me the stat's weaknesses/faults in how it's calculated?
     
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  10. glimmertwins

    glimmertwins Member

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    Ahh - thank you for filling in some gaps. I was talking specifically about trading for players like Zion with extreme injury risks and the team who traded for them improving into a whole new winning level afterwards.

    Steph, Embiid, Ja, Chet don't count - no one traded for them on a discount because of their injury history so it's nothing like the Zion situation. Klay and Lavine were traded but neither were good enough in their new teams to make a big difference in the ceiling of their team - Klay hasn't been an all star in many years now and is in the twilight of his career. Lavine led teams have never been anything more than playoff participants at best.

    Porzingas and Kawhi are valid examples with pretty big asterisks - Porzingas did bring home a title in Boston but he was a bench player for a team that may have won it without him. It was a gamble to sign him but it's notable that he took less than max money to sign with Boston - not exactly the same risk as signing a guy like Zion to a max deal.

    Kawhi's was just bizarre - the Spurs thought he was an injury risk and Kawhi thought that wasn't true so he forced his way out for a half season on a loaded Raptors team, won the title, and then resumed being the same often injured player the Spurs were afraid of. The Spurs weren't trying to trade him at all though - it was really pennies on the dollar because he was ghosting the Spurs and effectively he forced his way out to play ball again(in Toronto) and then he went to LA and has played like half the games since and hasn't been available and healthy when the team needed him most.

    ...as I mentioned with AD - he did help the Lakers in a title but he also got 4 months of rest before a playoff run on account of the pandemic stopping the season early and resuming it after a lengthy break. That's bizarre enough to never happen again.
     
  11. Terror-Trips

    Terror-Trips Member

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    Link to website:

    https://espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts

    You could have just as easily looked this up yourself.

    https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id...ints-latest-nba-metric-amazing-early-findings

    People can have their opinions, but this article isn't about opinions. It's about a new, all-encompassing NBA metric ESPN has created called Net Points, which uses play-by-play data to evaluate a player's performance. It quantifies every rebound, shot, turnover and free throw and assigns credit and blame to the players on the court. It divides credit and blame based on the difficulty of the players' contributions to the success or failure of the team.
     
  12. glimmertwins

    glimmertwins Member

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    I would be skeptical of any new metric from ESPN - especially ones just published that haven't been thoroughly vetted. They drained their org of most of the NBA talent long ago and kept the most annoying hot take guys and interns. Dean Oliver is legit but did he really conceive this metric or does he just refer to it in his article? It's not exactly clear and he doesn't come out and say he did it which is....sus.
     
  13. DaDakota

    DaDakota Balance wins
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    No, because statistics can be manipulated and it all depends upon the original data set, which has to be input by humans....or at least the conditions do.....people are always trying to make up new stats to win arguments. I am fine with you believing what you want to believe.....and me the same.....

    Basketball isn't Rocket science, you can see what is going on if you know the game. Stats can help you measure what you already see and add context but they don't tell the story and are fallible at best.

    DD
     
  14. glimmertwins

    glimmertwins Member

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    I was referring to trading for an often injured player - not just a player who is very good, get hurts and comes and wins some more.
     
  15. Terror-Trips

    Terror-Trips Member

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    I understand that no amount of evidence will change anyone's mind on what is obviously a subjective issue. But adding the trade criteria is specious because it distorts the real point which is that Zion is not injured now + is playing like optimal Zion right now. Future injury free seasons are not guaranteed for any player.

    Zion's long term injury risk is just as speculative as Chet's, Mobley or even Wemby because it's based on body morphology or illness.

    Do you realize that both Barkley + Shaq also had serious weight concerns during their careers? But only Shaq missed equivalent time due to injuries.

     
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  16. Terror-Trips

    Terror-Trips Member

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    Hoo-boy, having a dialog with truthers is exhausting.

    I seriously doubt that ESPN manipulated data because they are Sengun fans.

     
  17. hlmbasketball

    hlmbasketball Member

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    I would want him because he has something that no one else on this roster has....THE ABILITY TO SCORE AT WILL!

    Jalen still has trouble driving into the lane. Is it Alpi crowding the lanes? he's still to skinny? Or not enough strength? I don't know but it's frustrating.

    Alpi is just an around the basket player who is 6'9 with no athletic ability. Avg scorer, avg rebounder

    Jabari is 21. I see the defense, the rebounding but his shot comes and goes. I think its going to take him another 2yrs but he can be a prominent role player

    Amen is 22. This is his first full NBA season. If he continues to work, I think he'll be there in 2 yrs.

    If we can add Zion and Missi for a #1, Sengun and a throw in Cam or Reed, I would do it. If Zion gets hurt, we would still have Jabari or Tari as a backup. Missi gives you what Ime wants, a lob threat, defense and rebounding.

    Plus, people forget, when Eric Gordon was in N.O he was ALWAYS hurt. He came here and was one of the most durable Rockets players.
     
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  18. Terror-Trips

    Terror-Trips Member

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    Agree with you on Zion. But a couple of clarifications. Alperen is the leading rebounder on Rockets team which is leading NBA in rebounds. Both Alp + Stevo are elite in NBA in OREB which is critical to 2nd chance points in Ime system. Amen is also an elite REB especially for a guard/wing. Jabari averages essentially same amount of REB as Tari but Tari plays 7 fewer minutes.

     
  19. Aruba77

    Aruba77 Member

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    but u can’t score at will if you aren’t on the court.
     
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  20. Rocket River

    Rocket River Member

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    I'm no Sengun hater but let's take a look at the last 10 Big Three from Championship Teams

    Warriors - Steph Klay Draymond
    Cavaliers - Bron Love Kyrie
    Warriors - Steph Klay Draymond
    Warriors - Steph Klay Draymond
    Raptors - Kawhi Siakam Lowry
    Lakers - Bron AD Rondo
    Bucks - Giannis Middleton Holiday
    Warriors - Steph Klay Draymond
    Nuggets - Jokic Murray MPJ
    Celtics - Tatum Brown KP/HOliday

    Right Now - our Big THree would be . . . Sengun JGreen FVV/Amen?
    That is IMO No where close to any of the groups above

    What players in those Groups do we think Sengun could replace and they would still win the Championship?

    Everyone has to get BETTER include ALP

    THAT SAID - including Availability in the Mix. . . I ask the same question of ZION
    Rocket River
     
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