what do you think the odds are of Rodgers making the opening day roster? I’m guessing we can’t roster him and Guillorme (and Dubon etc.). I think I saw that Rodgers can opt out after ST and become a FA again if he’s demoted to the minors/doesn’t make our ML roster. I saw he took less money because of the opportunity with HOU, which makes sense. But if he’s relegated maybe he just goes elsewhere
If Paredes hits 35-40 homers he is going to be worth 5+ assuming you’re going with fWAR. He put up 4.3 in 2023.
Best case scenario on the mound 1) health! Garcia and LMJ make it to the starting mound sometime end of April or beginning of May and pitch somewhere around 100 innings each. Javier comes back in July or August and pitches 1-3 innings per outing 2 times a week. Framber- dominant Ace level- all star and receives Cy Young Votes Brown- consistently is the guy he was the last 4 months of last year- All Star and recievers Cy Young Votes Arrighetti- has another healthy year that’s more dominant starts than bad- wins 15 games with a couple clunkers mixed in. Blanco- solid MOr guy that answers the bell every start- pitches to a 3.5 era and provides lots of value Wesneski or however you spell his name- sees different pitch mix happen/ gives up fewer HR and pitches like a MOR guy Blubaugh- gets his feet wet with flashes of good and bad. Finds his way into bullpen when all starters are healthy. whitley- becomes dominant 7th inning guy Abreu/ stays healthy- is guy he’s always been which is all star level Hader/ stops giving up so many Hr- is the guy he normally is rest of the bullpen- pieces it together and doesn’t actively sabotage us.
I have no faith in Jake Meyers and he is already in mid season form. 0-8 with 5 Ks and 1 BB I know... it's spring training and small sample size but does he have to suck that much?
On Arrighetti, only 11 pitchers on the league won 15 games last season and those guys averaged about 4 fwar, so I think that’s a very lofty goal. My reasonable hope for each player: Position players in order of projected pa: SS Pena: his fangraphs projections (3.4 fwar) are reasonable, a 20/20 season would be badass and is likely a career year for him. 1B Walker: fangraphs projections seem reasonable; anything in line with his last 3 seasons (~3 fwar) would be great. 3B Paredes: A repeat of his 2023 season (31 HR, 4.3 fwar) would be great. LF Altuve: A 130 wRC+ and a fully healthy season would be great. DH Alvarez: fangraphs projects him as the best overall hitter in the league with a full season so I think there’s way more downside there but anything over 160 wRC+ and 4 fwar would be great. C Diaz: I don’t see some huge breakout but I do think he will have a career year; 25 HR and 3.5 fwar would likely mean that happened. Astros need >20 fwar from those 6 players (and likely closer to 25) if they are going to have a good year. RF McCormick: I have become pessimistic on him since spring started but a rebound to his 2021-2022 numbers (~2 fwar, 110 wRC+) would be good. CF Meyers: He is who he is; a league average overall batting line and 2 fwar is the expectation. 2B Guillorme and Dubon combine for 2.7 fwar and a combined 105 wRC+. C Caratini posts something closer to his career averages, 90 wRC+ and 1.0 fwar. Rookies: my hope is that Dezenzo, Whitcomb, Matthews, Melton, and Smith combine for 700 pa as a group, with at least 2 of them getting 300+ pa, and one of them getting ROY votes.
I personally don’t think he makes the roster but I could definitely be wrong. I think he only makes it if the front office really likes what they have seen from him and is willing to commit to him being the everyday 2B to start the season. His skill set overlaps with Dubon too much for them to be complementary. It might be possible that Rodgers and Guillorme both make the roster, but that likely means Dubon plays more OF, which doesn’t seem to be the plan. In that scenario, Singleton or (less likely) Gamel is pushed off the roster. A trade this month could shake all that up.
My reasonable starting pitcher hopes: Valdez and Brown replicate 2024, combining for 320 ip and 7 fwar. McCullers and Garcia combine for 200 ip and 4 fwar. Blanco and Arrighetti combine for 300 ip and 5 fwar. Wesneski, Blubaugh, Gusto, Pecko, Ullola, Gordon, and Fleury combine for >100 ip and one of them gets ROY votes. Javier is healthy enough to pitch in the playoffs. RP hopes: Hader and Abreu have career average seasons. Whitley, Ort, and King combine for 130 ip and at least one of them breaks out to be a dominant leverage arm. Scott remains a useful low leverage arm. One of VanWey, Sousa, Dubin, Gaither, Santos, Contreras, Weiman, or Tamarez gets established as a good RP
Sometimes the metric fwrc is used and other times fwar. What are these? Does that mean a 4 war that by my plusses and me alone that we win an additional 4 games over the average expected if we had an average war player?
I have never seen fwrc, if you are referring to the wRC+ number I posted, that is “weighted runs created +”, a single metric fangraphs uses to measure offensive production relative to the average hitter; wRC+ only measures offense. Fwar is fangraphs “wins above replacement” which measure total value for a player relative to the expected value of a replacement-level player; fwar measures both offense and defense.
Calling Jake Meyers a league average overall bat is very generous. He has a career OPS of .662 and an OPS+ of 86.
I should have said league average offensive player, because he has some baserunning value. 6 of the 8 projections systems Fangraphs has put him with at least a 96 wRC+.
I default to bWar which has Peña as over a 4 war player so keep that in mind with all War. The Arrighetti case is obviously bullish but when I say 15 wins I’m baking in good offense there, and I’m counting on 30 plus starts.
Dezenzo getting a start in RF, didn't expect that. They're probably just trying things out in camp, but it would be nice if they think Dezenzo can handle RF on a regular basis. With LF seemingly occupied they may be forced to put him in RF whether they want to or not.
