Phoenix Suns' Pick Tracking Thread

Unless Green is by far DPOY, I doubt he's making up 5 points and 4 assists on defense.

On defense, Jalen Green is not average or above average. Maybe it is because I don't watch the Suns much, but I doubt Booker is that bad as he hasn't been in the recent past. I don't see how being slow to rotating, weak tags, and being on the ground after a drive while Rockets play 4 defenders on 5 is considered average or above average. Sure, Green's average in staying with a guy on ball (maybe even slightly above average there), but he is well below average elsewhere.

When I look at the defensive stats...it looks even worse than the eye ball test. Since Amen has started, the Rockets have basically been about 15 points worse defensively with him on the court versus him off. It wasn't good earlier in the season, but that was understandable with Amen and Tari both on the bench. With Amen starting and Tari on and off with health issue, the minutes with Green off the court has been a hodgepodge of Whitmore, Reed, Holiday, Jeff Green, Landale, Tate, and Adams.

Maybe it is just a coincidence and it is really that Brooks is the one sucking at defense, but only while he's on the court with Green.

 

I would hate to be in the Phoenix Suns fans position. Imagine having a team that has practically quit trying. An ownership that is delusional and thinks they can still catch momentum for a playoff push.

And fans realizing it’s playoff or nothing - and you hear all the promise and see losses! Because they aren’t in control of their draft picks through 2030 or so…. Eek !!!

Rockets were wise to use the lure of Flagg to bait The Nets into choosing to tanking (by trading away the one guy who could keep the teetering on the fringe of low 30 win team), hence prying those coveted Phoenix picks!!

Phoenix sits at 11 and the Nets at 7. But Phoenix has absolutely the toughest schedule in the NBA. If they’re struggling with weaker teams, the outcome looks bleak against tougher foes.

So the dream of Cooper Flagg is still alive, even though the Rockets can play as hard as they can to win!!!

 

A lot of good stuff in here.

I'm sold on Amen. Not sure about superstar (granted I kind of view it like if there are a lot of superstars, there aren't any), but he's going provide a ton of value.

On Sengun, whether he ends up the best Rocket or 4th best Rocket, he's good.

FVV is still here. If Amen and Sengun are considered better than him, I'm not sure any other team has 3 players better than FVV with maybe the exception of OKC. My desire to cash in chips is that Rockets aren't going to be able to afford Amen, Sengun, another great player on a non-rookie deal, and FVV (or comparable player and salary without losing salary elsewhere) after Amen is extended. Though waiting does have a lot of appeal.

The Spurs gave up diddly squat for Fox. While this isn't possible, it would be like trading 2028 pick Top 14 protected, 2030 pick Top 14 protected, and 2031 pick Top 14 protected, a bunch of SRPs, Landale, Jeff Green, and Holiday for Fox. I have no issue dealing players with no short term or long term value and picks that are not going to be lottery picks most likely for a good player.

 

Looking at the Spurs they dont have metric ton of draft stock. They have a swap in 2031 with the Kings. Swap rights in 2030 for most favorable of mavs or wolves. Hawks pick this year, swap next year, and one more pick year after. Lastly a swap with the celtics in a few years.

So....

4 swaps (1 maybe worthless)
2 picks one coming this season

 

Yeah, I'm pretty convinced now that Amen is going to become a top 10 player at some point. When I look at the other young players around the league (meaning under age 25) there are only two guys I feel fairly certain have a better combo of floor+ceiling, and that's Wemby and Ant Edwards. (Maybe Cade?)

And even then, Wemby has injury concerns and Ant doesn't have Amen's size, length, and fluidity (but obviously has a far-superior jump shot). So it's not outside the realm of possibility that Amen has a better career than those two.

Not saying he's #3 among under-25 players right now by any means, there are at least a few young guys still ahead of him in current production, like Cade and Franz Wagner. I just like his future prospects at least as much as any of the other guys around the league, including media darlings like Jalen Williams. His combo of defense + paint/close midrange scoring + passing is just so incredibly valuable and I think on a team with less depth where he was the clear #1 guy, he'd already be averaging around 20, 8, and 8 as one of the best defenders in the league.

Anyway, my point being--if Sengun and Green can both at least end up in that nebulous top 20ish, fringe all-star range maybe we're already set? Sengun if he gets his shooting touch back is already there, and Green is maybe getting close too. I think you can win with a top 10 player and a couple of fringe All-Stars.

 

Yeah. Reading the local sports writers and fan posting they are really frustrated. I don't know if it is still true but earlier in the year, when KD was out, Booker was the only player that seemed to be interested in trying to win. The only player the writers and posters recognized as giving any kind of damn. Which makes me want him as a Rocket even more.

 

The Suns were very fortunate to not lose at home to the Jazz earlier this month. All Utah had to do was deliberately miss a free throw.

 

They would only be half a game in front of Portland then who are on a 3-game winning streak at the moment

 

Portland's been playing better ball lately. I could easily see them passing the Suns in the standings at some point.

 

If he continues what he's done the last 30 games or so, I think he's eventually a 30% contract .... Some team will pay him that once he reaches the tenure milestone.

I really don't think there's a dozen players in the entire league worth more than 25% based strictly on performance impact.
But this is how NBA teams operate - they overpay with high hopes and players have come to expect it.

(That's no knock on Jalen)

 

You know I've been highly critical of Jalen .... but over the last 30 games he's been much better, especially the shooting and that's probably the most critical aspect for him to improve. it opens up literally the entre offense.

He's 36% for the season but 39% for the last 30. Booker is 34% for the season .... Yes, Booker is a bit better midrange but this team needs spacing for Amen & Sengun to do their thing, I don't think Booker provides that more than Jalen.
Defensively Jalen has been better than Booker .... and in transition, there's absolutely no doubt who's better.


As for where this team adds talent / value - I think that's at the PG spot. Fred has been atrocious offensively this year. sub 40% shooting from the field and was hovering just under 30% for most of the year from 3 until a recent hot stretch (30/59) over a 7 game stretch brought him back to 34%.
Jalen is literally shooting better from 3 than FVV is from the field over the last 30.
There's things to like about FVV - the assist to turnover ratio, good defense and getting the team into the offense but he's just not a very dynamic or efficient offensive player.

 

With Amen, Sengun, and Jalen...I don't think we need a conventional PG.
Booker handles the ball well enough ...
Folks don't give this part of his game enough credence.
Also, his looks with the Rockets will be MUCH better Book will shoot around 40 from 3 here.

FVV + PHX picks/swap for DB.

 

I think Mobley, Chet, Barnes, Zion and Paolo all have the potential to be as good or better than Amen.

 

While I would rather have SGA, Jokic or Giannis, those guys aren't likely to be available to us. Booker's contract roughly matches what we will be paying Jalen and Dillon over the next two years. I think that trade would increase our odds of a championship or two considerably. I think he would worker harder on defense under Ime.

We live in the New Orleans area and so I follow the Pelicans as well. I don't think they would trade Zion unless he demanded it. Their strategy is to grab a lottery pick then try to compete again next season. A core of Zion, Trey Murphy, CJ McCollum and Herb Jones can compete. Dejounte Murray's Achilles tear messed that up a bit but they'll acquire a decent PG in free agency as they will have an open starting spot. Someone like Spencer Dinwiddie or D'Angelo Russell would be good enough. They can compete for the 7th through 10th spot with that group as the young guys like Yves MIssi, Karlo Matkovic and the 2025 first develop.

Zion has looked awesome recently and they just can't trade him because whatever fan interest remains would disappear. David Griffin is in his 6th year as GM and wouldn't survive a prolonged rebuild.

 

Paolo isn't that good, he's dragging his team down. Doesn't play defense and chucks up far too many bad shots. He's always been overrated and inefficient. Amen probably already has a larger positive impact on winning than he does.

Mobley is really, really good, but I don't know if he has the potential to become a #1 option like Amen does. I would personally put him around the same level floor+ceiling as Amen--currently the better player but has twice as much NBA experience, so he should be.

Zion will never stay healthy. I predict he'll be out of the league by age 30.

Chet might, but he's already basically missed two full seasons, and I'm not bullish on his health moving forward given his frame and injury history. He might have Amen beat on floor+ceiling other than that though.

Barnes I thought was on a really good trajectory but he has taken a major step backward this season instead of forward. Now I'm starting to wonder about him. Regardless, I think Amen will be able do everything he does on offense + play much better defense. Again, this is a guy with twice as much NBA experience.

 

All of these players have flaws but I think any one of these players could be the best of the group in 3-5 years.

 

Yeah, it's possible. I would put Amen above some of them, at an equal level to some. My point is I can barely think of 10 guys < age 25 that I'd even put on an equal level to him in terms of future outcomes, let alone above him, so I'm starting to feel pretty confident he can be in the top 10 players in the league in his prime.

 

This might seem strange, but the Suns should put the queue in the rack and tank.

While it might mean we end up with a top 4 pick, who cares? Fact is they aren't making the playoffs, so why try and stymie their internal growth to spite us?
Ultimately they should blow it up and strip it back for assets. The Nets are loaded with picks again for a rebuild already.

Sit Durant and Booker - they already have value.
Play the guys whose contracts run beyond this year: Beal / Allen / ONeale / Richards / Micic (TO) / Martin.
Feature the rookies in Dunn and Ighodaro.
Give time to their 2way guys to see if they are worth converting to multi-year non-gtd minimum deals.


Seems weird, but there is no point continuing to spin the wheels.