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[Pain] HUGE, self-inflicted Recession incoming due to Trump/Musk

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by SamFisher, Feb 18, 2025.

  1. SamFisher

    SamFisher Member

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    Each public sector job you shed also sheds 4-5 private sector jobs directly and collectively probably tens or hundreds of millions and millions more indirectly in the long term

    also note - GDP is going to get absolutely crushed - 1% growth? That is great recession level. And it's all self -inflicted

    [​IMG]
     
  2. IBTL

    IBTL Member

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    I don't really understand it either. Say what you want about the federal government at large, but yeah, lot of these folks are just regular workers like you and I. The vilification is just outright idiotic.
     
    HakeemOnlyFan and ROCKSS like this.
  3. El_Conquistador

    El_Conquistador King of the D&D, The Legend, #1 Ranking

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    Trump tariffs are bringing jobs back home and creating a booming economy in the USA -- attracting investment from the world's largest companies.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/appl...-future-of-american-innovation-110106571.html

    Apple announces $500 billion US investment in bet 'on the future of American innovation'

    Apple (AAPL) announced Monday that it will spend and invest more than $500 billion in the US over the next four years, including plans to build a new manufacturing factory, double its advanced manufacturing fund, and hire 20,000 people.

    "We are bullish on the future of American innovation, and we're proud to build on our long-standing U.S. investments with this $500 billion commitment to our country’s future,” Apple CEO Tim Cook said in a statement.


    "From doubling our Advanced Manufacturing Fund, to building advanced technology in Texas, we’re thrilled to expand our support for American manufacturing. And we’ll keep working with people and companies across this country to help write an extraordinary new chapter in the history of American innovation.”
     
  4. SamFisher

    SamFisher Member

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    Consumer confidence predicts recession..


    Yup, the consumers are right, welcome to the Golden Age of a self-induced, Trump-Musk recession.



    https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence
    US Consumer Confidence Dropped Sharply in February
    Latest Press Release
    Updated: Tuesday, February 25, 2025



    Pessimism about the future returned
    The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined by 7.0 points in February to 98.3 (1985=100). The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell 3.4 points to 136.5. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions— dropped 9.3 points to 72.9. For the first time since June 2024, the Expectations Index was below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. The cutoff date for preliminary results was February 19, 2025.

    “In February, consumer confidence registered the largest monthly decline since August 2021,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. “This is the third consecutive month on month decline, bringing the Index to the bottom of the range that has prevailed since 2022. Of the five components of the Index, only consumers’ assessment of present business conditions improved, albeit slightly. Views of current labor market conditions weakened. Consumers became pessimistic about future business conditions and less optimistic about future income. Pessimism about future employment prospects worsened and reached a ten-month high.”
     
  5. DonnyMost

    DonnyMost Member
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    The real fireworks won't start until Trump and Powell start publicly fighting about making the money printer go brrrr.
     
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  6. No Worries

    No Worries Member

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    Bet on it.
     
  7. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Member

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    That's usually the halftime show.
     
  8. adoo

    adoo Member

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    revisionist history on traitor George's part.

    Trump 1.0 initiated trade war; it ended up netting a loss of 2 million jobs, not a booming economy
     
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  9. El_Conquistador

    El_Conquistador King of the D&D, The Legend, #1 Ranking

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    Friend, are you dishonestly counting COVID job losses and blaming it on tariffs? Shame on you for your dishonesty. All of your comments are now stained by this.

    Tax cuts + Deregulation + Onshoring of Jobs + DOGE cuts to waste, fraud, abuse + Energy production = Trump's path to prosperity. Voters agree - and are very complimentary of his first month on the job.

    GOOD DAY
     
  10. El_Conquistador

    El_Conquistador King of the D&D, The Legend, #1 Ranking

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    The Democrats spent $7 trillion a year and propped up the economy with government spending -- much of it was pure waste. That's not healthy economic growth -- and it's not REAL growth because the inflation that accompanied that level of deficit spending. Trump/Musk are reshaping the economy to be LEAN and grow through productivity increases, not simply government spending. The deficits that tax and spend Democrats put on the country have now left us with interest expense in excess of defense spending. It's simply unsustainable. The Democrats' approach did not work. Time the world's most successful businessman (Musk) and the world's most successful politician (Trump) to take charge.

    GOOD DAY
     
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  11. adoo

    adoo Member

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    COVID did not hit the US until yr 3 of Trump 1.0; Trump misleading of COVID contributed to the job loss
     
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  12. El_Conquistador

    El_Conquistador King of the D&D, The Legend, #1 Ranking

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    Blue states shutting down was the single largest contributor to job loss during COVID. To blame tariffs for COVID job losses is just silly. And dishonest.

    GOOD DAY
     
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  13. jo mama

    jo mama Member

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    i believe that adoo is pointing out that the tariffs were causing job loss before the pandemic even happened.

    furthermore, due to trumps tarriffs he had to send billions to farmers who were hurt by said tarriffs...again pre-covid.
     
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  14. adoo

    adoo Member

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    stop lying, the 4 bigggest shut down are Calif, Tx, NY and Florida

    and shutdown started in yr 4
     
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  15. SamFisher

    SamFisher Member

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    It's cute that Jorge is still posting here!

    The economic news since I started this thread has been nothing short of catastrophic:

    • consumer confidence falling off a cliff
    • Inflation expectations reaching 30 year records
    • Bond markets freaking out over the deficit
    • Bellwethers like $WMT guiding downwards
    • And finally, the equity markets (that Jorge was crowing about a week ago!) are throwing in the towel (led by $TSLA, eat **** lol)
    • I actually advised people here - in this very thread -to take advantage of the top of the market but - apparently, since @El_Conquistador aspires only to bottom hood, he did not. Very sad.
    The bad news is, it's going to get way worse.

    The good news is, in the long run we're all dead, as Keynes wrote, so we have that to look forward to
     
    #115 SamFisher, Feb 25, 2025
    Last edited: Feb 25, 2025
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  16. Buck Turgidson

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    that's somewhat but not totally true
     
  17. GOATuve

    GOATuve Member

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    Sam Fisher and Adoo. Two of the worst posters here
     
  18. adoo

    adoo Member

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    the Bond market is not convinced of Elon's claim to cut the deficit

    This disconnect between political rhetoric and market reality highlights the challenges of achieving meaningful fiscal consolidation through rapid cost-cutting initiatives.

    The Bond market landscape
    • Bond yields remain elevated despite aggressive cost-cutting promises.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield has not fallen to levels expected if substantial savings were achieved.
    • Investors demand clearer evidence of fiscal discipline amid high budget deficits.

    DOGE's unsupported claims
    • Musk’s DOGE initiative claims to deliver vast government savings, yet detailed breakdowns show far lower figures.
    • Trump’s cost-cutting measures have been met with skepticism due to modest actual cuts.
    • Historical data indicate that significant fiscal consolidation is necessary to impact long-term bond yields.
     
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  19. jo mama

    jo mama Member

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    how is it not totally true?

    he imposed tariffs on china so they retaliated and per the below article, caused a 75% drop in soybean exports so trump gave american farmers a $28 billion bailout. and to counter texxx/jorge/mojoman...this was pre-covid.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuart...-to-farmers-cost-more-than-us-nuclear-forces/

    Trump Tariff Aid To Farmers Cost More Than U.S. Nuclear Forces

    The Trump administration gave more taxpayer dollars to farmers harmed by the administration’s trade policies than the federal government spends each year building ships for the Navy or maintaining America’s nuclear arsenal, according to a new report. A National Foundation for American Policy analysis concluded the spending on farmers was also higher than the annual budgets of several government agencies. “The amount of money raises questions about the strategy of imposing tariffs and permitting the use of taxpayer money to shield policymakers from the consequences of their actions,” according to the analysis.

    After a series of tariff increases on Chinese imports, the government of China retaliated against U.S. exporters, as predicted by trade analysts outside of the administration. As a result, U.S. exports, particularly of agricultural goods, dropped significantly. “Losing the world’s most populous country as an export market has been a major blow to the [U.S.] agriculture industry,” reported the New York Times in August 2019. “Total American agricultural exports to China were $24 billion in 2014 and fell to $9.1 billion last year, according to the American Farm Bureau.” In 2018, U.S. farmers’ soybean exports to China declined by 75%, according to the U.S. International Trade Commission.

    To shore up political support from farmers, Donald Trump approved increasing amounts of government aid to farmers harmed by the trade policies that the Trump administration itself initiated. Trump was open about the purpose of the payments. “I sometimes see where these horrible dishonest reporters will say that ‘oh jeez, the farmers are upset,’” he told attendees of an Illinois farmer show in August 2019. “Well, they can’t be too upset, because I gave them $12 billion and I gave them $16 billion this year. . . . I hope you like me even better than you did in ’16.”
     
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  20. IBTL

    IBTL Member

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    Lol. At least they actually gave a **** and voted. Not really sure why you continue to post here. It's tiring to read the drivel you post.
     

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