Ja Morant a possible trade target for Houston this offseason?

Spoiler: has he matured?

 

I wonder what they will actually be thinking if JJJ makes All-NBA and becomes supermax eligible. Having to pay $69M AAV for a non-superstar might change their tune a little bit. Ja is locked up on a much smaller annual value through 27-28.

 

If someone becomes super max eligible doesn’t mean they will get it. I really would like JJJ on the Rockets, but I don’t I think any team in the NBA would give JJJ the super max. I think Memphis will work something more reasonable out with him. The second Apron is really changing the fabric of the league. Even OKC and the Rockets are going to get in trouble with it in a couple of years.

 

Fair point. I guess it also depends on how hard of a line JJJ toes with them. Jaylen Brown got the full supermax--is he significantly better than Jackson Jr?

JJJ would really be about as good as it gets outside of getting a young, surefire top 10 player (which doesn't look like it's in the cards unless something shocking like the Luka trade falls in our laps, extremely unlikely).

 

I replied to a comment comparing them to indicate there is really no comparison at all to what they do on the court.

 

Spoiler

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/st...n-questions-futures-durant-kyrie-trae-decided

…

What other free agents should we be watching?

All in all, here are the names to watch this summer:

Franchise level: LeBron James (Player option)
All-Star level: Kyrie Irving (Player) and James Harden (Player)
Top starter level: Fred VanVleet (Team option), Julius Randle (Player), Myles Turner, Josh Giddey (Restricted free agency), Jonathan Kuminga (RFA), Cam Thomas (RFA)
Starter level: Clint Capela, D'Angelo Russell, Brook Lopez, Khris Middleton (Player), Naz Reid (Player), Kelly Oubre Jr. (Player), Tyus Jones, Dorian Finney-Smith and John Collins (Player)

Note: Brooklyn, Chicago, Detroit and Memphis are the only teams that project to have cap space in the offseason.

Now that Luka Doncic is ineligible, are there any supermax players to watch?

Barring the unexpected, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will sign the largest per average contract in NBA history this offseason. The four-year, $293 million extension the Oklahoma City Thunder guard is expected to sign comes with an average salary of $73 million per season.

Gilgeous-Alexander is eligible to sign a supermax extension because he was named All-NBA in 2023 and 2024. However, because he has two years remaining starting this summer, the extension is four additional seasons, not five.

Other players to watch include Memphis Grizzlies big man Jaren Jackson Jr. and Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young. Both are supermax eligible if either earns All-NBA or All-Defense. And, like Doncic, San Antonio Spurs guard De'Aaron Fox is ineligible because he was traded.

Detroit Pistons guard Cade Cunningham and Cleveland Cavaliers forward Evan Mobley could see their five-year, $224 million extensions increase to $269 million if either are named All-NBA or All-Defense.

What team controls the offseason? How about a wild-card team?

The offseason leads through Brooklyn.

Not only are the Nets projected to have a league-high $60-plus million to sign free agents or acquire players in a trade, they also have four first-round picks in this year's draft.

"You have to be poised and position yourself to be able to have that opportunity," GM Sean Marks said in January. "We're going to give ourselves the best chance to do that. Now, on whom and when, that's TBD."

In total, Brooklyn has 16 first-round picks in the next seven years -- 13 are tradable. They also have 17 second-rounders.

In the West, Houston Rockets GM Rafael Stone held true to his word at the trade deadline, when he mentioned no changes were coming to their roster. After a year of evaluating, does that thinking change this offseason?

The Rockets do not have cap space like Brooklyn but have the draft assets and contracts to make a big move in the offseason. Houston has a potential lottery pick from the Phoenix Suns this year along with their first-round picks unprotected in 2027 and 2029. The Rockets can also swap first-rounders with Brooklyn in 2027, plus they own the Dallas Mavericks' 2029 first-rounder unprotected.

As for the current roster, Houston has a mix of veterans (Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks) and former first-round picks on rookie contracts (Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson, Reed Sheppard, Cam Whitmore). Smith is rookie-extension eligible starting on the first day after the NBA Finals conclude, while the poison pill restrictions for All-Star Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green get lifted on July 1.

Will extensions once again dominate the offseason? What about for the 2022 rookie class?

The veteran players eligible this offseason include Doncic, Young, Fox, Jackson Jr., Nikola Jokic, Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Karl-Anthony Towns, Darius Garland, Ja Morant, Tyler Herro, Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum and Kristaps Porzingis.

Jokic, Booker and Towns each have three years left on supermax extensions signed in 2022. If they decline the $62.8 million player option in 2027-28, each player would then be allowed to extend for three-years, $212 million.

Oklahoma City, the price tag to keep the roster intact is set to get expensive. Including the likely $293-million supermax extension for Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder could hand out an additional $592 million in combined extensions to Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams.

Holmgren, Williams and 2023 Rookie of the Year Paolo Banchero are eligible to sign five-year, $246 million extensions. (Banchero could become the first Orlando Magicplayer to sign a rookie max extension since Dwight Howard in 2007.) Those extensions could increase to $296 million if All-NBA, MVP or Defensive Player of the Year honors are negotiated into the contracts.

Other notable rookie extension candidates include Sacramento Kings forward Keegan Murray, Houston Rockets forward Jabari Smith Jr., Indiana Pacers guard Bennedict Mathurin, Utah Jazz center Walker Kessler and Miami Heat forward Nikola Jovic.

What under-the-radar move at the deadline could impact the offseason?

Memphis GM Zach Kleiman was upfront about acquiring Marcus Smart from the Boston Celtics in 2023 and then trading him to the Washington Wizards at the February deadline.

"We made a move that so far to date, hadn't worked," Kleiman said. "I'd much rather own that myself. That starts with me. You cut your losses on a move, and we put ourselves in the best position to build the team going forward."

The trade has future financial implications because it saved the Grizzlies $21.6 million next season, allowing them greater financial flexibility to renegotiate and then extend Jackson.

The renegotiation option would allow Memphis to increase the $23.3 million salary of Jackson in 2025-26 to $36.5 million and then extend for an additional four-years, $229 million. The extension is $82 million more than what he is currently eligible for in June.

The renegotiate and extend option could be moot. If Jackson Jr. is named Defensive Player of the Year or to an All-NBA team, he would become eligible to sign a five year, $345 million supermax extension.

What makes Aug. 2 so important?

Nearly a month after 2025 free agency begins, all eyes will shift toward Doncic and the Lakers. Ineligible to sign a five-year, $345 million supermax extension because he was traded, Doncic is allowed to sign up to a four-year, $229 million extension with the Lakers, but not until Aug. 2

To recoup the money lost when he was traded, Doncic would be better served financially to sign a three-year, $165 million extension -- with a player option in 2027-28. Doncic would then be eligible to sign a five-year, $418 million contract in the 2028 offseason.
Expect Lakers GM Rob Pelinka to continue taking an aggressive approach in adding to the roster.

"We know that our roster has continued work to do to be complete," Pelinka said earlier this month. "We're going to build a roster that fits [coach] JJ Redick's basketball philosophy."

The Lakers do not have cap space in the offseason but have $70 million in expiring contracts, one first-round pick (2031 or 2032) and the right to swap first-rounders in 2030.

Is there a player under contract that we should watch?

The Suns have a two-month reprieve before the attention shifts to the future of Kevin Durant, who was the subject of trade speculation at the deadline and is set to enter the last year of his contract.

"It's not a bad thing that people around the league want me to play for them," Durant said earlier this month. "It's not a bad thing my organization here is fighting off people to keep me on the team or even dangle me in a trade. It's part of being in high demand."
Starting on the first day after the NBA Finals, the 36-year old can agree to a two-year, $124 million extension with the Suns.

Phoenix currently sits on the outside of the top-10 in the West and have $161 million committed in salary next season to Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal. If the roster stays intact, the Suns could spend nearly $450 million in salary plus tax penalties. They are again a second apron team and will face the same restrictions as this year.

Besides Durant, keep an eye on contract negotiations between Trae Young and the Hawks. Young has two years left on his contract after this season and can be a free agent in 2026 if he declines his player option. The four-time All-Star is eligible to sign a four-year, $229 million extension in the offseason.

What new CBA rules could impact the offseason?

The punitive apron rules remain but will be joined by two new rules that further restrict excessive spending.
Teams who finish over the second apron in 2024-25 will have their first-round pick in 2032 frozen and unable to be traded. Current teams include Boston, Minnesota and Phoenix.

There will also be an increased penalty for repeater tax teams (four years in a row or four out five seasons) and for teams spending more than $11.4 million over the tax threshold. For example, the Celtics and Suns tax bills this year could increase from $205 million to more than $400 million next year.

 

You are looking at this the wrong way. Top-10 players are never on the market, unless you're the Lakers and things just naturally go absurdly well for you whether it's Hollywood allure (Shaq, LeBron) or questionably managed trades (Gasol, Luka). Nobody trades away a future top-10 player unless they grossly underestimate his future development, most notably SGA and Harden.

The question shouldn't be are you trading for a future top-10 player, but rather do think someone can come in and help the potential stars on your team be better? The Spurs obviously decided that having Fox is a good idea even if Fox is not a superstar. The Suns traded for CP3 to help Booker. The Rockets signed Dwight to complement Harden, and although that duo flamed out, they still were a lot more successful than any Rockets team since the Olajuwon days. The Nuggets once signed Paul Milsap to complement Jokic, and when that didn't work out, traded for Aaron Gordon.

So really, the idea here is to get someone you think can help make Amen, Sengun, and maybe even Jalen turn into the best they can be. If a guy can do that, then he doesn't need to be a top-10 guy for the trade to be worth it.

 

It is according to what kind of contract JJJ would be willing to accept. If we could get Naz Reid for about 30m for 4 years and JJJ for about 40 to 45, I would trade Sengun for him, just because of the perfect fit he is for us. I don’t know if Memphis would do it because of Eden though. I’m just dreaming, but Amen, Jalen, Jabari, JJJ, Reid starting five would be a real rival to OKC.

 

I included it as only one of the criteria we're looking for--but I agree it's an unlikely one to be met. (The closer you can get the better, of course.) The issue is that Morant doesn't fit any of the other criteria either, except I do like that he's only 25, so at least he fits our timeline really well.

I'm not convinced you can run a team out there with Ja Morant, Jalen Green, Amen Thompson, and Alperen Sengun starting. Hell, I doubt you can even play any three of those guys together. Two questionable shooters is already pushing it in today's league.

I would want JJJ, or maybe Bane from Memphis in any major trade talks to help get them out of impending second apron hell. They can keep Ja.

I would rather put JJJ beside Sengun than trade Sengun for him. I feel like that frontcourt pairing would be ridiculously good--JJJ does everything Sengun lacks and can play either the 4 or the 5. Personally, I'd try to build the trade around Jabari as the "good young player" going out. Of course it will take much more than that--maybe two of the young guys, maybe a ton of picks, whatever.

Of course I guess if they were like "Sengun or nothing" I would at least consider it.

 

I'm not sure how good of a fit Morant is either, but you were responding to JR's post which did have some players I would've liked for the Rockets at the right price. My main point is that If one were make the restrictions on a potential trade so strict, then you're really never making a trade.

And the Rockets currently is not capable of being a contender without outside help the way OKC can be. So they really do need an upgrade of some kind, unless someone on this team can take a SGA-level leap no one sees coming. But short of that, whether someone is a good fit or not, the Rockets do need to do "something."

 

I agree to a certain degree, but I don't think we're under intense time pressure to do something this offseason. We can afford to be a little more patient than that.

 

Isn't that the plot of the movie "Major League"?

 

I was in my 20's then ..... you expect me to remember that long ago?


Wow time flies.

 

I don't know if you watch the NFL, but this is one of those debates about how much you need to push your chips in while your franchise QB is still on the rookie deal. So the time pressure thing would differ from person to person. Do you want that star when your young players are cheap but maybe not ready? Or do you want to wait until they all make big bucks but are legit established stars? I can understand if you belong in the latter camp. But I am in the former camp, because I think Rockets fans overestimate the owner's willingness to pay exorbitant amount of luxury taxes needed to do the latter team building style.

 

Don't like JJJ's rebounding...

As to Ja,
Big downside risk due to injury, and the League waiting with the axe.
Plus he can't shoot...
And makes big $$$$.

Pass.

 

Very different sports--most NBA teams don't win a championship until their best player is in his late 20s or later. Even MJ and LeBron didn't win their first rings until ages 28 and 27 respectively.

 

I think your point is valid and I really love Sengun, but I really think our path to a championship is thru Amen and having every other position taken by very good defensive players that can hit 3’s is our best chance. Simply trading Jabari for JJJ does net us the better player, but at what cost and how much difference in the half court and on defense. JJJ also will cost a great deal more than Jabari on the salary cap as well as significant draft capital to make such a trade.
Sengun could solve all this by learning to shoot 3’s (and free throws), but this year’s results have given me reason for doubt. Trading Sengun for JJJ in my scenario is predicated on getting a good young center that can hit 3’s (Naz Reid).

Which lineup would be more likely to compete for a championship in your opinion? Amen, Jalen, Dillon, JJJ, Sengun or Amen, Jalen, Jabari, JJJ, Reid giving that the benches would be roughly the same.

 

I can see it if the Grizzlies lose in the first round but I’m sure they will ask for Amen and that’s a no from me

 

I largely agree that Amen is becoming the guy I want to build around--if not as the #1 option on offense, then at least as the best player on the floor who has the greatest net impact. And I'm also having some concerns about his fit next to Sengun. However, I do think that getting a guy like JJJ addresses some of those fit concerns, since JJJ can play both the 4 and the 5 (meaning Sengun's and Amen's minutes can be staggered a little bit) and JJJ has become an above-average three point shooter.

As far as your lineup comparison, I don't know. I feel like Sengun still has some growth left in him, Naz Reid is mostly a finished product. I guess I'd say "it depends", as much of a cop-out as that is

Last point I'd make is that I'm starting to become more and more bullish on Amen turning himself into a legit shooter. When he has a wide open corner three I almost expect it to go in now. That's huge strides to have made in just one offseason for a second-year player. If he becomes a legit shooter it becomes much easier to have Sengun out there.

 

If you're talking about the past, then I mostly agree. But the recent trend of teams ducking under aprons is a clear sign that the new CBA is hitting even the owners with unlimited pocketbooks. It also make certain team construction like the Heatles impossible to work. I hope you're right though. that in a couple of year when Amen, Tari, and Jabari are all off their rookie salaries and the Rockets in 1st apron territory, that Fertitta would still be willing to add salary to contend.