I would look at bringing him in at the right price. He would give them juice in the slot. The injuries appear to random.
https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/st...gency-trade-contracts-hill-adams-diggs-samuel 17 WRs available in free agency or trades Spoiler Trade candidates Tyreek Hill, Dolphins 2024 stats: 81 catches, 959 yards, 6 TDs 2024 salary: $26.5 million Deebo Samuel, 49ers 2024 stats: 51 catches, 670 yards, 3 TDs 2024 salary: $12.6 million Age entering 2025 season: 29 Samuel, who has requested that the 49ers trade him, is the best yards-after-catch generator of his generation. From 2021 to 2024, he generated 903 yards after catch over expectation. The only other player with more is Ja'Marr Chase, who generated 11 more YACOE but needed 151 more catches to do so. The No. 3 player on that list, George Kittle, has 585 YACOE. Put another way: By receiver score's YAC component, on a per-snap basis, Samuel ranked first in 2021, first in 2022, first in 2023 and second in 2024, trailing only Greg Dortch. (The size and style disparity between those two receivers makes for a fun comparison.) If you've watched any 49ers games over the past few years, you've seen Samuel bursting through tackles or running away from defenders in the open field. He's one of the league's most difficult players to bring down. The problem is most everything else. Samuel ranked 137th in catch score while dropping four of his 80 targets on the season. After a hot start, he seemed to fade as the year went along; he failed to top 25 receiving yards in six of his final seven games. Without Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk, the San Francisco offense instead seemed to flow through Kittle and Jordan Mason or Isaac Guerendo, with Jauan Jennings as the team's third-down threat at receiver. And while Samuel generated extra value in the past as a wildly efficient running back, he averaged only 3.1 yards per carry across his 42 rush attempts in 2024, less than half of his prior career mark of 6.3. Yards per carry can be misleading if a player is picking up a lot of short-yardage first downs, but he went from generating first downs on more than 30% of his runs from 2021 to 2023 to just 11.9% this season. Cut candidates Davante Adams, Jets 2024 stats: 85 catches, 1,063 yards, 8 TDs 2024 salary: $17.3 million Age entering 2025 season: 32 Christian Kirk, Jaguars 2024 stats: 27 catches, 379 yards, 1 TD (8 games) 2024 salary: $24.1 million Age entering 2025 season: 28 Kirk might have been a victim of his own success. After a breakout season in 2021, the Jags signed him to what was a stunning deal at the time. His four-year, $72 million pact was a desperate move from a front office that just wanted to get solid receivers alongside Trevor Lawrence. Playing in an every-down role and running the sixth-most routes of any receiver in 2022, he then racked up 1,108 yards and eight touchdowns on a team that reached the playoffs. Since then, Kirk has 1,166 yards over the ensuing two seasons, with injuries -- including a broken collarbone last October -- limiting him to 20 games over that span. His 2.1 yards per route run over those two seasons is above average, but he has also dropped seven of his 130 targets and lost two fumbles. Considering Kirk took three-quarters of his snaps from the slot last season and doesn't have the size to line up outside, he profiles as a moderate-floor, low-ceiling receiver. While Kirk isn't a bad player, he has become a sort of cautionary tale for teams that just want to spend whatever they can to get competent players in their lineup. He was competing for regular work with Rondale Moore in 2021 when he had a career year, at which point the Jags decided to pay Kirk an market-altering deal. His 2022 season was a sign that he could hold up with heavier volume, but it was also the sort of deal that kept Jacksonville from making bigger splashes at positions of need. Good organizations find their Kirks in the draft or even on the waiver wire. Bad organizations pay a premium to find their Kirks because they're not confident they can develop their own. Kirk has $16.2 million in unguaranteed money upcoming in the final year of his deal, which is untenable given his recent impact. Former Arizona coach Kliff Kingsbury, now the offensive coordinator in Washington, raved about Kirk as "one of my favorite players I've ever been around," and the Commanders need to add help at wide receiver beyond Terry McLaurin. Luke McCaffrey should have a larger role in his second NFL season, but it wouldn't be shocking if Kirk reunited with his old coach to play in the slot for Jayden Daniels. Cooper Kupp, Rams 2024 stats: 67 catches, 710 yards, 6 TDs 2024 salary: $29.8 million Age entering 2025 season: 32 There's already a strong idea that Kupp won't be back with the Rams. The organization has allowed him to seek a potential trade partner, which is almost always the precursor to a player's time with his team coming to a close. Given that the Rams were reportedly talking to teams about a potential trade after they started 1-4 this season, the writing has been on the wall for a while. For the Rams, the goal is to get a deal done before March 16, when Kupp's $7.5 million roster bonus will be paid. Most of that bonus -- $5 million -- is already guaranteed. They could pay it themselves as a way of reducing the amount of money a new team would pay him, a move they would be willing to make only if they land a meaningful draft pick in return. The acquiring team would be on the hook to pay some amount of the $20 million he is owed in 2025, minus whatever the Rams chip in to pay his bonus and base salary. L.A. did this in 2023 when it traded away Allen Robinson, eating $10 million to save the remaining $5 million it owed the disappointing free agent pickup. If the Rams end up cutting Kupp, things are a little murkier. They would pay him that $5 million, at least at first. It's unclear whether his deal has offset language, which would allow the franchise to recoup up to that $5 million mark if he signs for that amount elsewhere. If it doesn't, he could double-dip and earn that money from the Rams and the full amount of a new deal elsewhere. Releasing Kupp seems more likely than finding a trade that makes sense for everyone involved. Even if the Rams are willing to eat the full $7.5 million bonus, I'm not sure there would be a flood of teams lining up to pay him $12.5 million. If there's offset language, the Rams would be on the hook for only $5 million, and his deal should eventually be for more than that in 2025. Given that the new team would want to renegotiate his deal, he has a de-facto no-trade clause. All of that is complicated by evaluating Kupp the player, which is more difficult than ever before. After his legendary 2021 campaign, his 2022 season was ended prematurely by a high ankle sprain that cost him the second half of the year. He has struggled to stay healthy since. He missed the first month of the 2023 season because of a hamstring injury, and another high-ankle sprain cost him five games in 2024. He has also left three other games early over that span. Kupp looked good in the first five games after his return from the injury in 2024, racking up 401 yards and four touchdowns, but he seemed to fade out of the offense afterward. Through his final seven regular-season games and two playoff contests, he caught only 18 passes for 252 yards and a lone touchdown, averaging 36 receiving yards per game. He played just 55% of the snaps in the wild-card round win over the Vikings, with coach Sean McVay seemingly resting him for most of the second half in a one-sided game as L.A. played more 12 personnel groupings. Nobody is expecting the 2021 version of Kupp to return, but there are real questions about whether a new team would get the full-season version of him from a year ago or the one who was anonymous in December and January. He averaged 2.1 yards per route run in 2024, which would comfortably make him a starting receiver, but that fell to 1.4 yards per route run over that final seven-game span, which is much less impressive. Organizations will have to treat a full season out of Kupp as a pleasant surprise and project him as a 13-game player when they value him on the market. Kupp has a distinct and useful skill set. He has excelled in the Rams' motion-heavy offense as a player who can break down defenders on crossing and choice routes, with that little burst of pre-snap speed giving him an advantage. Nobody ran more routes in motion at the snap than Kupp's 106 in 2024. McVay also used that motion to play into his strengths as a blocker, where he's capable of crashing down onto front-seven players in the box and locking up defensive backs on bubble and tunnel screens. I'll mention them multiple times in this piece, but there's an obvious fit here with Kupp and the Chargers, who have a need at receiver, ask their wideouts to block quite often and used motion at the snap at the eighth-highest rate of any offense last season. The Texans just brought in coordinator Nick Caley, who was the pass game coordinator for the Rams last season. And while the Commanders don't use a ton of motion, Kupp would be a valuable addition on all the perimeter screens and RPOs they run. My guess is that as a free agent, he would end up landing a deal in the $8 million range, where his every-snap value as a blocker and receiver would be mitigated by the concerns about his ability to stay healthy. Tyler Lockett, Seahawks 2024 stats: 49 catches, 600 yards, 2 TDs 2024 salary: $18.9 million Age entering 2025 season: 32
Spoiler 2025 free agents Keenan Allen 2024 stats: 70 catches, 744 yards, 7 TDs (with CHI) 2024 salary: $23.1 million Age entering 2025 season: 33 Marquise Brown 2024 stats: 9 catches, 91 yards (2 games with KC) 2024 salary: $7 million Age entering 2025 season: Brandin Cooks 2024 stats: 26 catches, 259 yards, 3 TDs (10 games with DAL) 2024 salary: $8 million Age entering 2025 season: 31 Amari Cooper 2024 stats: 44 catches, 547 yards, 4 TDs (with CLE/BUF) 2024 salary: $20 million Age entering 2025 season: 31 Stefon Diggs 2024 stats: 47 catches, 496 yards, 3 TDs (8 games with HOU) 2024 salary: $22.5 million Age entering 2025 season: 31 Diggs gets an incomplete grade for his season with the Texans, as he made it through eight games before suffering a torn ACL, which ended his season. He was on pace for 100 catches and 1,054 yards, which would have been roughly similar to what the he produced in his final season with Buffalo after adjusting for a reduced target share. Advanced metrics were fonder of Diggs' production than you might guess. His 2.0 yards per route run ranked 38th among players with at least 200 routes run, just behind Courtland Sutton and Calvin Ridley. He did a great job of actually bringing in the football, the first job of a wide receiver; he didn't drop a pass all season and caught 5.1 more passes than expected, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That figure ranked seventh in the league through Week 8, and it came on a team in which the other wide receivers and tight ends combined to catch 1.4 passes over expectation across a much larger target volume during that same span. Receiver Score was even more optimistic. After years of seeing Diggs as a top-10 wideout, he dropped to 67th in the rankings during his final season with the Bills. In 2024, though, he jumped back up to third, driven by a great catch rate and the league's seventh-highest Open Score. Open Score attempts to measure both what a receiver does on the routes in which he's targeted and his ability to get open on the ones where the ball goes elsewhere, which seems to augur some optimism towards his ability sustaining into his thirties. But then there's the torn ACL, and while that's not an injury that ends careers like it might have in the past, it's only going to complicate things. Teams are already hesitant to give healthy players in their 30s multi-year guarantees out of fear they'll get injured and/or have their performance suddenly decline. Now, Diggs is coming back from a serious knee injury before he's even signed with another team, which means he'll likely be playing on one-year deals in 2025 and beyond. When the Texans traded for Diggs last April, they voided the final three years of his deal, allowing him to suit up in 2024 with the possible motivation of earning a new contract in the years to come. It was a bizarre move given that they were trading a second-round pick to acquire him, but it ended up being inconsequential. Diggs would have probably ended up as a cut candidate after the injury, with an unguaranteed $18 million base salary in 2025 that will likely outstrip his actual deal on the open market. As a free agent, Diggs' best move might be to stay put. The Texans have a hole at wide receiver next to Nico Collins after Tank Dell suffered a multi-ligament knee injury late in the season, one that John Metchie and Xavier Hutchinson struggled to fill. Veteran Robert Woods is also a free agent. The Texans were willing to take a big swing to add Diggs a year ago, and while the offense was wildly disappointing, it wasn't his fault. Given that Diggs doesn't play special teams, is coming off a serious injury and has a reputation for bad behavior when he's not where he wants to be, there's going to be a narrower market for him than there would be for other wideouts with his production. Chris Godwin 2024 stats: 50 catches, 576 yards, 5 TDs (7 games with TB) 2024 salary: $20 million Age entering 2025 season: 29 Best of the rest: One trade candidate, four free agents Adam Thielen has outplayed expectations amid multiple quarterbacks and offensive coordinators in Carolina, racking up 1,629 yards over two seasons. He's owed only about $6.3 million in 2025, so the Panthers could comfortably afford a third season with the now 35-year-old wideout. They could potentially trade him to a more competitive team if they want to make a more substantial investment in a veteran receiver, which would likely land Carolina a Day 3 pick in return. Mike Williams didn't seem to find any traction with the Jets, who dealt the 6-foot-4 wideout to the Steelers at midseason for a fifth-round pick. He ended up becoming one of the first two players since 1930 to play 18 games in a regular season alongside Leonard Williams. He wasn't a consistent threat for Pittsburgh, but he did manage a number of his customary big plays down either sideline, including a winning touchdown catch against the Commanders. He should have an opportunity as a third or fourth wideout, albeit on a reduced salary from the $10 million he made a year ago. DeAndre Hopkins made it to the Super Bowl with the Chiefs and scored a fourth-quarter touchdown, but his trip to the biggest stage will likely be remembered for a disastrous drop at the end of the first half that cost the Chiefs a chance to score their first points. After an 86-yard, two-touchdown performance in his second game for the Chiefs, he never really seemed to develop a consistent rapport with Patrick Mahomes, and he was only a part-time player during the postseason. It might be tough for the five-time Pro Bowler to find a significant opportunity this offseason. Demarcus Robinson was the third wideout for the Rams and set career highs in receiving yards (505) and touchdowns (seven). Given how frequently he was on the field, though, he generated just 1.0 yards per route run, which ranked 44th out of the 47 wideouts who ran 400 routes or more. He was also charged with DUI in January, which could open him up to potential league discipline. If the Rams let Kupp leave, they could justify bringing back Robinson on a one-year deal in the same $4 million range he earned a year ago, although it's fair to suggest they likely could upgrade on the 30-year-old if they tried. JuJu Smith-Schuster was cut by the Patriots before reuniting with the Chiefs, where he had exactly one great game in the regular season with a seven-catch, 130-yard performance against the Saints. He finished with just 231 receiving yards, but the Chiefs like him for his ability to block and hold his own on the many pick plays Andy Reid loves to call on offense. Smith-Schuster doesn't play special teams, which hurts his value versus other backup wide receivers, but he's enough of a known quantity and offers just enough on the occasional catch to justify a roster spot.
Heard them talking about this on SportsRadio 610 this morning: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id...med-oc-bobby-slowik-predicable-no-adjustments
I'm out on him - at this point just use the draft and try to get a few WR's like Kupp who are at the end of their primes.
