I remain dubious - in the face of your enthusiasm - for how Bregman will perform into his 30s. But on this superstar point.... other than Shohei, are there any superstars in baseball? Maybe Judge? I just don't think the environment is such that *any* player is going to rise above others. But predicting that if one does, it'll be a 30+-year old who's best season was ~6 years ago... I don't know, man... This feels wildly disconnected from reality. Having said that... landing $40M/year from one of baseball's most storied franchises certainly positions Bregman as a fairly prominent figure in MLB.
I understand all of this. I just feel like we have seen enough, extended, hot streaks that I can see 2-3 very very good seasons ahead followed by several good ones. As I have said multiple times, I expect Alex to have a slow regression due to age and still be at least average into his late 30s. That coupled with the positive national media attention that should come with the move to Boston is why I feel the way I do.
So apparently Alex's wife Reagan is expected to start her first semester of Harvard Business School in Boston in the fall and she was very involved in the free agency process. Seems like landing with the Red Sox was the goal all along for them.
Good for her and good for Bregman being supportive. Of course not like they can't afford to work around it if any other teams had a better offer. It's nice seeing his wife actually have the drive to do more than just settle with the money Bregman brings.
His age and recent performance indicate it is hugely likely that he has peaked and would be lucky to sustain the production of his last couple of seasons. BUT, there is a scenario where (1) Bregs is totally rejuvenated by the new surroundings, (2) Bregs continues to have financial motivation to excel, and (3) he takes full advantage of his new home ballpark … to turn back the clock and produce an elite level. I continue to think this is unlikely, but it is certainly possible. If we were to apply probabilities for outcomes This season, I would say: 50% likelihood: he produces on the same level as last 2-3 years. 15% likelihood: a Fenway bump produces numbers that are 15% better than what he has done in the last few years. 10%likelihood: Bregs turns in a monster year, top 10-15 MVP vote getter. 20% likelihood: Father Time is undefeated and Bregs is 10% worse, 5% likelihood: Father Time kicks the **** out of Bregs and he is 15-20% worse.
While Boston unquestionably gets significantly more media attention than any other MLB franchise, save Yankees & Dodgers... I'm not connecting the "positive national media attention" puzzle. Rafael Devers is an objectively better player than Bregman, now and for the past several seasons. I'm not sure many casual fans have heard of him. Even among baseball circles, I could probably list a dozen+ players (maybe more) who have a much higher profile, including Jose Altuve. I guess my issue isn't so much with your take on Bregman as it is the current, rather anonymous state of baseball and any notion that merely playing in Boston lifts someone's profile higher than sustained postseason success. I mean, i guess the landscape is ripe for a "champion injects franchise with winning mentality" narrative if Boston wins this year - but I think it's going to be a struggle for Bregman to be better than the 4th-best position player on this team.
Altuve is the lone holdover from the 2015. We didn’t know it then but this Astros team’s identity was destined to be his legacy. Of course McCullers drafted in 2012 is still here but he’s been absent whole season at a time…. It seems like years since he’s even positively impacted the Astros.
LOL, gotta love that team first mentality. 'I'm already paid, I could pretty easily learn LF or 1B where I won't hurt the team as much but f**k that" The Red Sox traded Betts, an all time great who is team first, and kept this guy. What an epic fail.
This is reasonable. Your percentages in WAR Last 2-3 yrs avg WAR = 4.5 50% 4.5 WAR 15% 5.2 WAR 10% 6+ WAR 20% 4.1 WAR 5% 3.6 or less WAR
Unreal. Cant believe they signed Bregman without clear communication about how it impacts their best player.
Grass isn't always greener on the other side. Sidenote: He opts out after Devers requests a trade would be hilarious (for us - not Sox fans)
So let me get this straight. Bregman left a team that had a team mate that would move to left field so he could stay and play third base. He went to a team that has a third baseman who refuses to move to DH or first for him. Good luck Bregs.
