I would trust what he said right after the surgery more than now. At the time, it may well have been 13-15 months and he was optimistic. And then, because McCullers is McCullers, 13-15 morphed in 15+ at some point during his rehab because it wasn't going well. So now he thinks of it as 15-18. But that said, he's not even on that pace, given that's he's not ready to pitch now, 20 months after the surgery. So the Astros' setback narrative could be correct too. Went from 13-15 to 15-18 to maybe 22-23 if he gets back by May.
In McCullers case, yes, because it's likely. The issue is that if you stick him in the rotation, you're pulling someone else out (unless they go from a 5 man to 6 man rotation) - and you're screwing with that guy's development for what will likely be a short McCullers run before his next injury. So it might be better for the team to keep focusing on developing whoever their #5 starter is rather than yank them in and out of the rotation with McCullers. I don't think we have any idea what role - if any - will keep McCullers healthy, so that shouldn't be much of a consideration. More innings is likely to lead to more injury, as is inconsistent prep like you get in the bullpen. Since he's never been a bullpen pitcher for any extended period of time, no one knows how his arm might do in that case. But we know it doesn't hold up well as a starter, FWIW.
Once again, if Lance is healthy he is probably better than any of the other options, and if the Astros are worried about affecting a prospect’s development then they can just leave them in the minors while Lance is healthy. The other option is to pitch a worse player in Lance’s spot as a starter. And if he is going to get hurt regardless, you might as well get the most out of him, which would be as a starter.
When healthy, Lance is TOR type pitcher with nasty stuff. He hasn’t been healthy in a very long time. You have to admit, if we had a healthy McCullers the last 4 or 5 years, there is possibly another title in Houston.
He hasn't pitched in two years. We have no idea how good Lance is when healthy now. His arm has been rebuilt to some extent so there's no telling what his pitching will actually be like.
Lance McCullers Jr. career fwar per 150 ip: 3.1 Zack Greinke career fwar per 150 ip: 3.0 Framber Valdez career fwar per 150 ip: 2.8 Charlie Morton career fwar per 150 ip: 2.1 Justin Verlander career fwar per 150 ip: 3.6 Gerrit Cole career fwar per 150 ip: 3.5 When McCullers been healthy, he’s a near-ace level pitcher. That’s why we are all so desperate to see him get back. A healthy McCullers is a $35M/yr pitcher.
But he’s unlikely to ever be what he was in 2015 again…. So he became a $15 million/yr pitcher, who’s never been healthy for any year of that deal. Maybe he learns how to throw a knuckle ball…
I don’t think Lance’s arm was meant to throw the pitches he throws long term. Those curveballs and sliders have done a number on him. Loved him when he pitched, but the per-150 IP comparisons are meaningless when he may never pitch 150 innings again in the rest of his career, combined.
I'll take the two rings that he was an important part of in each WS run. Maybe pushes into another game against Atlanta but don't think it makes a difference in 23 or 24.
We also have no idea how good any of the pitchers are that Lance would replace. At least we have a track record with Lance to go off of. And I think it’s a pretty safe bet that if Lance is healthy this year as a starter, he would be better than whoever he is replacing. Maybe he ends up sucking or injured and then none of this matters.
The whole point is, even if healthy, he may not get back to that elite level after this much time away.
Sadly reality is he'll probably never be able to stay healthy again and he's going to have lost a lot. I really like Lance and agree on his talent but despite what he says he wants it's best for us to try him in the bullpen.
I think there is a 20-25% chance that Lance pitches more innings than JV this year. . . Ok maybe 5-10, but there is a chance.
