[Official] Astros Off Season Thread

2022 Astros WS Team actual fwar vs 2025 Astros projected fwar:
C Maldonado 0.8 / Diaz 3.0
1B Gurriel -0.7 / Walker 3.2
2B Altuve 6.9 / Altuve 3.6
SS Pena 3.3 / Pena 3.4
3B Bregman 5.4 / Paredes 3.9
RF Tucker 4.9 / McCormick 1.7
CF McCormick 2.2 / Meyers 1.8
LF Brantley 1.1 / Trammell 0.8
DH Alvarez 6.4 / Alvarez 5.4
UT Diaz 0.8 / Dubon 0.8
UT Dubon 0.0 / Gamel 0.5
OTHERS -0.6 / OTHERS 2.4
TOTAL 30.5 / TOTAL 30.5

SP Valdez 4.4 / Valdez 3.3
SP Verlander 6.1 / Brown 2.8
SP Urquidy 1.0 / Blanco 1.5
SP Garcia 2.0 / Arrighetti 1.3
SP Javier 3.4 / Garcia 1.4
SP Odorizzi 1.2 / Wesneski 0.7
SP McCullers 0.8 / McCullers 1.0
RP Maton -0.1 / Whitley 0.2
RP Montero 1.5 / King 0.1
RP Stanek 0.9 / Ort -0.1
RP Neris 1.6 / Scott 0.2
RP Abreu 1.4 / Abreu 1.2
RP Pressly 1.4 / Hader 1.5
OTHERS 1.1 / OTHERS 0.3
TOTAL 26.7 / TOTAL 15.4

Very interesting that the position player war matches up with the last time Houston won it all. RP war is not a great metric and I think the 2025 pen will surprise to the upside, so I’m not worried about that. On paper the real difference between those rosters looks to be SP quality. They need BIG seasons from Framber, Brown, Arrighetti, and Blanco, and they need Garcia (or McCullers) to be healthy.

Takeaways:

1. A lot better at C and 1B, a lot worse in RF.
2. A lot more unproven in the bullpen.
3. No Verlander and a lot of performance/injury risk in the rotation.

Coulda/Woulda/Shoulda:

1. Re-signed Kikuchi
2. Signed Santander
3. Added 2 cheap veteran RP (Neris, Graveman?)

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/02/diamondbacks-sign-kendall-graveman.html

Another good deal for a team adding a pitcher desperate to get into camp.

 

Spot on, I would be happy to get a full year out of LMJ/Garcia combined. Most importantly I'm hoping they're both back and doing well by the All Star break.

 

They are set up to wait and see for the all star break. If the Astros are struggling, they have guys they can move off of for value.

If the team is doing well but needs a bat or two, they have the ability to make deals if they want to.

I know they have been trying to extend Paredes and their young catcher. So I don’t see a complete tear down.

I agree though - without someone unexpected really stepping up offensively and/or someone like Arrighetti becoming an ace… this roster clearly isn’t as good.

 

We should have brought back graveman
https://bsky.app/profile/mlbtraderumors.bsky.social/post/3li5kleag7i2z

 

Yea I don't think a complete tear down is required. I just think Crane wasn't willing to spend enough money to build a really competitive roster that would overcome the dead and/or nearly dead money this season going to Abreu, Montero, McCullers, and Javier.

 

A seller’s deadline would likely include sending out Framber, Pena, McCormick, Garcia, Caratini, Hader, and Abreu. That would probably net 4-5 Top 100 prospects and another half dozen 2nd/3rd tier prospects. At that point assuming the prospects already in the system have evolved, Houston would have a top 5 farm and go into 2026 with a lot of payroll flexibility.

I hope that doesn’t happen but if it does Houston is in pretty good shape to turn it around pretty quick if Brown really is as good of a scout as he’s touted to be.

 

A roster left with giant holes in the entire OF, SS, the top of the rotation, and the back end of the bullpen is not a quick turnaround team in 2026. Especially with Altuve and Walker both 35. Decent chance both of those guys get moved - why would you waste their last good years? Then, you're down to Yordan and a lot of hopium. There's not a big free agent that the Astros are going to sign that will bring them back to where they were at the end of last season. I haven't seen any of Brown's supposed scouting prowess bring on-the-field results for the Stros in the 2 years he's been here.

I think the full tear down starts at the All-Star break, if they don't overachieve before that. I don't know that we'll be close enough for a deadline deal savior.

 

If the Astros are not in contention at the trade deadline and haven’t extended Framber Valdez, he would be the one big name that would be traded. They would also trade any lesser free agents to be. I sincerely doubt they would trade players they control for 2026 and beyond like Peña, Hader and Bryan Abreu.

 

This should not be your expectation. You need to give Brown's domestic Rule 4 draftees another 2 years or so to make it to The Show. The international draftees will take longer.

 

Sorry, I missed Walker; yes, he would be gone too. As would Dubon and Meyers (although they wouldn’t bring back much.)


The Astros are not trading Altuve or Alvarez.

The length of the rebuild would depend on how much of a step forward the farm takes this season and what kind of mlb-ready talent Houston added in their sellers deadline. But Smith, Dezenzo, Matthews, and Melton should all be ready this year and all have been on at least 1 prominent top 100 list. Add those to Diaz, Altuve, Alvarez, and Paredes, and you’ve got a chance.

But yeah, if all their high ceiling upper level prospects bust this year, it’s over and a longer rebuild would be required.

 

It’s a catch 22 because if Houston is in position to sell this year, it likely means many of their players are performing poorly and have low trade value.

If Houston is <.500 at the deadline, they likely don’t have the payroll flexibility to improve enough to make the playoffs in 2026 just by trading Framber.

Also, outside of Tucker, pickings project to be extremely slim in free agency on the position player side next year.

 

It is possible that some of the Astros veterans like Altuve, Walker, Alvarez and Valdez have poor seasons and that combined with poor depth causes the team to be out of contention at the trade deadline? Sure.

However, I think if the Astros are not contending by the end of July, it has much more to do injury luck because they do not have quality depth across the roster.

As for payroll flexibility next year, they have $49M coming off the books from the current payroll in Jose Abreu, Rafael Montero and Framber Valdez. Even subtracting arbitration raises for Jeremy Peña, Bryan Abreu and Isaac Paredes along with first-year arbitration salaries for Hunter Brown and Yainer Diaz, that still leaves about 30-40 million to find Framber’s replacement and significantly upgrade the outfield.

 

Paredes will outplay Bregman this year. Yordan and Altuve stay healthy. Arrighetti and Brown take another step forward. We have a 10 game lead by the ASB and get a jolt from the return of Javier and a new OF bat at the deadline. The playoffs will be a crap shoot as always.

 

3 yrs ago

 

Is anyone else a bit underwhelmed by Dana Brown? I know it’s probably a bit too early in his tenure to really judge…I don’t know. Just a gut feeling

 

I really think the Astros are a surprise Team. Upward Trend.

So many talented pitchers coming back and adding depth.

Luis Garcia, Lance McCullers, Cristian Javier.

Forrest Whitley as a Setup Man in the 7th

 

I like the way you think.

Paredes and the Crawford boxes should be a match made in heaven.

 

Trash GM, has done nothing... The sooner he is gone the better....

 

2025 Astros Team Focused on a World Series vs 2024 Free Agent Distracted Team, Egos, Selfishness showed, Injuries.