It's probably different dates between the one I googled and his list. That said, any stat that has Luka as being the definitive #1 by a gigantic margin and later drop down to 10 is pretty suspect. I can't imagine defenses just decide to pay a lot fewer attention to Luka for any reason.
The Luka thing was what got me suspicious. How could Jalen Green and Cade Cunningham higher than Doncic on this list?
I appreciate your break down. and have followed your stats in the past, as, I too, have done this hot/cold breakdown with previous players in the past. However, there are two things wrong with your numbers this time. It’s 17 games below .250 this yr, to date…not 21. At first I thought you meant <= .250 … but all your last yr numbers are < .250 The other problem is …ummm … exactly the same as why I came into this thread to begin with. You are comparing full season percentages, instead of splits. And thus predicting he won’t have a post-asb bump, as usual. I don’t know why you present Jalen in a linear fashion, when the post you were responding to was directly addressing his numbers historically aren’t linear. so, do you want me to break down last season’s pre-asb and post-asb numbers wrt “below .250”, and then project that for this season … or do you to? SPOILER: there’s a significant difference. … and don’t forget to use 17, instead 21, for “below .250”
Also, it would be weird for Jalen Green to be so high in the list AND be a net negative to the offensive rating of his team when on the court compared to when he's on the bench.
I really hate this, %'s each game, argument. Its a terrible analysis because 1 game sample size is the absolute worse sample size. Its why %'s are graded on long stretches. To me it is disingenuous and tries to paint a preconceived bias. Lets looks at CF's loverboy Devin Booker. Last year Devin Booker shot 25% or worse in 25 out of 68 games or 31 out of 68 at 30% or below This year Devin Booker has shot 25% or worse in 17 out of 48 games or 24 out of 48 at 30% or below We can say Jalens streaky and argue hes streaky all we want and I agree, but this type of analysis is awful, imo.
The idea of Jalen's gravity being really important--I think it's clearly true that he distorts defenses and draws attention at a high level. But I think that's also obviously true for Sengun, and increasingly for Amen Thompson as well. I wonder whether we really need three guys like that. Our offense generally looks amazing when Jalen is hitting outside shots and often looks terrible when he isn't. I wonder how much more we'd score if we had an efficient high-volume movement shooter instead of an inefficient one, regardless of whether that guy has the same level of "gravity" in terms of paint pressure and such.
DD Im perplexed! It seems Rocket fans who have watched EVERY game, like myself and some others can tell when a player is playing hurt or if he's SOFT, as you are alluding to. To me, soft players don't play hurt, they don't jump on the ground for lose balls, they don't play defense, those just aren't things SOFT players do. He was driving to the rim and making plays at the beginning of the season and in Dec and Jan and no one was calling him SOFT then. And I have to trust what Ime is saying that he is hurt and banged up....DON'T YOU TRUST WHAT IME IS SAYING? However, did he play like crap last night? Yes! We forget, how many of those games Harden use to have when he was here. He would have 6, 7 or 8 turnover games, didn't play defense, NEVER, EVER showed leadership skills, be at the club minutes later and no one called him SOFT? I'm curious, what's your obvious HATE towards Jalen?
Assuming both of those things are true, and I'm not sure he has nearly as much gravity as this guy on twitter is saying, that means Jalen's decision making is bad when he's playing on ball against pressure. And that defenses are paying attention because they know the Rockets aren't as efficient if they put pressure on Jalen.
Sengun had a good, not great season last yr and I applauded him for that but this season, he has been up and down, his shooting hasn't been the same. And it's obvious w/o Jabari next to him, he's a defensive liability. As I alluded to "DD" why the obvious HATE towards Jalen when both players have had UPS and DOWNS this yr? Or do you just think everything is Jalen's fault? IM CURIOUS
His numbers in the clutch were significantly better last season. This season he hitting 33.9% from the field in the clutch and 28.6% from 3 and has had 13 turnovers in clutch situations already... he only had 14 total turnovers in clutch situations in the last 2 seasons combined.
I think Jalen’s gravity “stats” are also an indicator that defenses will trap until the Rockets prove we can beat it (by passing, or otherwise). For instance, the only reason Luka is so low for “on-ball gravity” is likely because Dallas will burn a trap of Luka. this theory also agrees with your eyeball wrt Amen and Sengun. ie, defenses don’t think any Rocket can beat aggressive traps/doubles.
Trapping elite passers is a bad idea, you want to trap/double poor passers. Do that against Luka or Jokic and you get burned everytime.
21 games at or below .250 (the same figure for each season). Here's the link to the stats - Jalen Green 2024-25 Game Log | Basketball-Reference.com I dunno what the date of the ASG was but using the cut off of game 50 .... he had 13 games sub .250 last year. 13 of 32. I'm not complaining about full season percentages at all - I'm complaining about poor performances in a high volume of individual games.
One of the reasons defenses think that way right now is because we have no true, consistent outside shooting threats except Dillon. They don't want to leave Jalen wide open but they're happy to cheat off him a bit. So even though Amen and Alpi are good (not great--yet?) passers, it doesn't matter because they have nobody to pass to. And you can always trap Jalen because again, only Dillon can really shoot, and Jalen isn't a great passer to boot FVV returning will help with this somewhat.
They aren't anywhere similar in quality. Sengun has certainly struggled at times this season, but he's still an overall positive when on the court compared to when he's on the bench. Jalen is not only a net negative to the offensive and defensive rating of the team when on the court compared to when he's on the bench, he's the largest net negative on the team. If Sengun was anywhere near that detrimental to the team, I'm sure people would be saying i was "hating" on him too.
I don’t want to nickpick this, just seeking clarity. Your post said he had 31 games at or below .250 for 37.8% of games last yr. You meant 31 below .250, not At or Below. And it’s actually 32. For At or Below, it’s 38 last year. It doesn’t matter though. As both <=.250 and <.250 will have the same issue. The reason I came in here was to address that freezing a year of stats at the ASB doesn’t really work historically for Jalen. It’s predicting he won’t have his traditional bump. Maybe he won’t, this year. But your stats assuming no bump ignores the reason for my post that you were responding to.
Just caught this. Here you say below-only again. You keep mixing it up. And you go from a 50 game cut off to say 13/32??? It was 20/50. And it’s 25/50 if we do At or below slow down, man as for ASB, just look for the big gap in dates in February. It was the 54th game. He was 24/54 below .250, and 29/54 for At or Below.
